Maybe I went at this the wrong way yesterday in trying to comapre to the past in Caldwell or bringing up specific years like 06.
Lets just show some simple math.
401 completions for Brady last year. How can we get close to that again.
70 from Lloyd, Gronk, and Hernandez gets you to 210 and I think 70 is fair number to use as they all have had more than 70 catches in a single season for us before so it is not unlikely to think they could do it again (if injuries were to continue to nag them then it might not be reached but I am going to assume health as I think with or without Wes if the TEs cant stay healthy we wont get over the hump).
Therein lies the problem
so we are at 210 with these 3 already only about half way to 401. how can we get another 191.
Last year by my quick count your backs got you 56 receptions Woody giving you 40 of them and he might be gone too
oh my god how do we replace those
. Lets be conservative here and assume that Vareen if given the chance could pick up some of those 40 and/or Demps get some too. lets assume the number goes down and lets call it a conservative and clean 40 receptions from the backs next year.
I'm taking my lead from the coaches and not assuming anything where Vereen is concerned.
250 receptions now and we have only counted one true WR in Lloyd. WR2 and WR3 will account for something and this is where the projections get trickey and why I went back and looked at a guy like Caldwell in the first place to come up with a best guess at what WR2 might be able to come up with. But lets not even go that high lets assume WR2 and WR3 give you a very modest 30 apiece.
Embarassing as it is to admit, Caldwell WAS WR1. And we've had lots of WR2 and WR3 produce next to nothing. So assuming 30 apiece which is 2 catches per game is not something I'm prepared to do.
boom we are up to 310 now and still 100 shy of last years total. There really aren't that many receiving options left. WR4 and WR5, TE3 and TE4 and thats it. I think these 4 players would easily give you anywhere from 15-30 (more if called on for extended back up time but that would make some numbers above go down so lets not go there).
Now you're just being silly...
Final number puts us at 325-340. I dont think it is to crazy to
HOPE that the trio of Lloyd, Gronk, and Hernandez could do better than 70 each. I dont think it is to crazy to
HOPE that the duo of whatever is in place for WR2 and WR3 could do better than 30 each. It might be a stretch to think that Vareen and Demps will out receive Woody and Vareen but one can
HOPE for it or one could just
HOPE for Woody back but then I guess I would have to
HOPE he can put up 40 again.
Food for thought: Lloyd put up 74 as WR 2 not crazy to think if he were WR1 that the number could go up. Gronk's best year was 90. Hernandez's best year was 79. All 3 numbers bigger than the 70 I quoted. Last year Branch/Edelman playing out of the WR3 spot for the year gave you 37 catches more than what I quoted for WR2. adding the difference from these numbers to the above would add 40 receptions bringing us to 365-385.
Lloyd isn't a WR1. Not even sure he's a WR2. Regardless of what position he plays based on the roster he's on.
OK go ahead and flame on.