Reiss: Pats won’t pick up 5th year option on DTs Danny Shelton and Malcolm Brown

[Triumph]

Definition of FINAGLE

The issue seems to be one of you comprehending "finagle".

Its very simple.

A TD pass down by 7 has more value than a TD pass up by 21. Their ratings are spot on and not achieved by accident. Ignoring that fact does not change their validity.

 

[Crazy Patriot Guy]

Its very simple.

A TD pass down by 7 has more value than a TD pass up by 21. Their ratings are spot on and not achieved by accident. Ignoring that fact does not change their validity.

The ratings are "spot on" based on what?

Using that logic, that great run the Pats had late in 2016 where they didn't trail for like 6 games, every good throw Brady made was less important because they were up. So there might have been 10 or more QBs better than him during that stretch.

Look, I don't think anyone is saying the defense is some perfect machine with no room for improvement, clearly they need to get better. But it's simply embarrassing how you think allowing less points than most other teams is an accident, or that all the teams that gave up more points faced good offenses only.

 

[maineman209]

Exactly.

Remember how Mike Gillislee was rated as the #1 RB in the NFL in 2016 based on production per touch? How did that work out?

Hmm ... never saw that one.

Gillislee's production per touch was fairly high in 2017. He had more 1st-downs and TDs in 104 carries than numerous other RBs who had many more carries in a #2/#3 role (e.g. Ajayi, who also had a 3.7 YPA, same as Gillislee).

2017 was also the second consecutive season in which he was at or near the top of the rankings in terms of success rate based on down-and-distance.

And, to think that this guy was only the 4th best RB on the Pats in spite of that.

 

[mgteich]

We replaced Lewis with Michel.

We now have camp competition for the #4 Rb position, as well as insurance against injury before the season starts. I suspect that Gillislie is the heavy favorite.

Hmm ... never saw that one.

Gillislee's production per touch was fairly high in 2017. He had more 1st-downs and TDs in 104 carries than numerous other RBs who had many more carries in a #2/#3 role (e.g. Ajayi, who also had a 3.7 YPA, same as Gillislee).

2017 was also the second consecutive season in which he was at or near the top of the rankings in terms of success rate based on down-and-distance.

And, to think that this guy was only the 4th best RB on the Pats in spite of that.

 

[patsfaninpa]

We replaced Lewis with Michel.

We now have camp competition for the #4 Rb position, as well as insurance against injury before the season starts. I suspect that Gillislie is the heavy favorite.

We weren't very good in short-yardage situations last year. I don't think the entire blame is
on the rb's. OL deserves it's fair share. But, I think Jeremy Hill is a better fit for those situations
that Gillislee. I'm just talking Hill the football player. I think he's a thug and wouldn't have
signed him. But, we did. I think he wins the job bases on his short-yardage ability.

 

[borisman]

I may be misinterpreting, but it seems as if you're suggesting that the Pats would be okay with Guy, Valentine, Adam Butler and a couple rookies for the interior DL in 2019.

I think the Pats will be OK if they lose one or both of Brown and/or Shelton. They have a little depth this year and there's a lot in the next draft that the Pats can get a really good player (Brown was an end of 1st round pick and played a lot as a rookie). There's always free agency as well if both our starters get too rich for the Pats.
If the Pats weren't OK with just LGuy, VV and AButler moving forward then they would have surely picked up the option on at least one of these players. They have options (no pun intended).

 

[Off The Grid]

Makes complete sense. Once you pick up the option it sets the floor for subsequent negotiations on a long term deal.

They might be willing to pay $7m in isolation but that makes it harder to sign them to a long term deal. You can't pay them $7m for the 5th year option and then offer a $5-6m average over 4 years on a long term deal. The Pats might actually want to keep Brown and Shelton.

It's why they don't use the franchise tag now. It becomes the basis for negotiation. Lets say they franchised Hightower last off season at $14m. It means he would never have signed a $8-10m average deal as it sets an unrealistic bar.

LMAO. Brilliant. Once'n a while, simple yet searingly insightful posts like these float across the radar and singe my joyful eyes. Well done, Sir.

 

[maineman209]

I think the Pats will be OK if they lose one or both of Brown and/or Shelton. They have a little depth this year and there's a lot in the next draft that the Pats can get a really good player (Brown was an end of 1st round pick and played a lot as a rookie). There's always free agency as well if both our starters get too rich for the Pats.
If the Pats weren't OK with just LGuy, VV and AButler moving forward then they would have surely picked up the option on at least one of these players. They have options (no pun intended).

When Brown played as a rookie in 2015, he was ONE rookie surrounded by solid, experienced veterans on the DL ... and at LB, too.

If both Shelton and Brown walk (with Trey Flowers likely leaving, too), the Pats may be relying on two or even three rookies to start on the DL. And we all saw how it went in 2017 with the lack of experienced personnel on the DL (it was a sieve) and among the LBs.

After this past season, "the Pats will be OK" feels like wishful thinking.

Your alternative - "There's always free agency" - there are a lot of DTs who haven't performed as well as Brown over the past three seasons who are already getting paid more than $7.1M. Legitimate 3-4 nose tackle types, like Shelton, are being paid pretty well, too - because there aren't really enough of them to go around.

Sure, BB has been amazing at finding underpaid/under-used "gems" on other teams, but that hasn't always worked. Neither have many of the DT draft picks that have fallen into the Pats' typical pick-range.

Declining the options on Brown and Shelton doesn't necessarily mean the Pats are "OK" with losing both of them (and, probably Flowers). If they do end up letting both walk, I'd consider the DL to be a likely weak point on the defense until we see exactly who the Pats manage to acquire as replacements. I'm not expecting that to be particularly easy. Or necessarily cheap.

 

[RobertWeathers]

When Brown played as a rookie in 2015, he was ONE rookie surrounded by solid, experienced veterans on the DL ... and at LB, too.

If both Shelton and Brown walk (with Trey Flowers likely leaving, too), the Pats may be relying on two or even three rookies to start on the DL. And we all saw how it went in 2017 with the lack of experienced personnel on the DL (it was a sieve) and among the LBs.

After this past season, "the Pats will be OK" feels like wishful thinking.

Your alternative - "There's always free agency" - there are a lot of DTs who haven't performed as well as Brown over the past three seasons who are already getting paid more than $7.1M. Legitimate 3-4 nose tackle types, like Shelton, are being paid pretty well, too - because there aren't really enough of them to go around.

Sure, BB has been amazing at finding underpaid/under-used "gems" on other teams, but that hasn't always worked. Neither have many of the DT draft picks that have fallen into the Pats' typical pick-range.

Declining the options on Brown and Shelton doesn't necessarily mean the Pats are "OK" with losing both of them (and, probably Flowers). If they do end up letting both walk, I'd consider the DL to be a likely weak point on the defense until we see exactly who the Pats manage to acquire as replacements. I'm not expecting that to be particularly easy. Or necessarily cheap.

Why do you think Flowers is a gonner?

 

[Crazy Patriot Guy]

Why do you think Flowers is a gonner?

 

[maineman209]

Why do you think Flowers is a gonner?

"Likely" probably was a bit strong. But it's certainly a distinct possibility that another team outbids the Pats for his services in 2019 - especially if he has something akin to a "breakout season in 2018 (say, 9+ sacks). The potential synergy of having Shelton paired with Brown in the middle (with Valentine healthy and available to rotate in), of having Guy, Wise and Butler with another year's worth of experience and possibly better-defined roles, Flowers raising his statistical profile is also a distinct possibility.

It seems to me that the 2018 front-7(6) has the potential to become something special - with Flowers, Brown and Shelton playing key roles in a possibly dramatic turnaround. While losing all three wouldn't necessarily drop the DL situation all the way back to abysmal 2017 levels, it seems like 2019 might well be yet another "down" year up front.

The continuity of front-7 quality, relatively speaking, that the Pats enjoyed from roughly 2003-2008 or so, has proven to be extremely difficult to replicate since then.

 

[RobertWeathers]

"Likely" probably was a bit strong. But it's certainly a distinct possibility that another team outbids the Pats for his services in 2019 - especially if he has something akin to a "breakout season in 2018 (say, 9+ sacks). The potential synergy of having Shelton paired with Brown in the middle (with Valentine healthy and available to rotate in), of having Guy, Wise and Butler with another year's worth of experience and possibly better-defined roles, Flowers raising his statistical profile is also a distinct possibility.

It seems to me that the 2018 front-7(6) has the potential to become something special - with Flowers, Brown and Shelton playing key roles in a possibly dramatic turnaround. While losing all three wouldn't necessarily drop the DL situation all the way back to abysmal 2017 levels, it seems like 2019 might well be yet another "down" year up front.

The continuity of front-7 quality, relatively speaking, that the Pats enjoyed from roughly 2003-2008 or so, has proven to be extremely difficult to replicate since then.

I agree with all that.

I just take exception to the whole, "hes gone" , narrative when it has been proven the Patriots will pay top dollar for players they really want.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Pats have money too.

Take a look at the big deals they've doled out and tell me they don't

 

[maineman209]

I agree with all that.

I just take exception to the whole, "hes gone" , narrative when it has been proven the Patriots will pay top dollar for players they really want.

Depends on what "top dollar" is. Unless Flowers gets well into double-digit sack numbers in 2018, his top dollar isn't likely to be anywhere near Chandler Jones' top dollar of $16.5M APY (which was fairly easy to see coming). OTOH, even Sheard got $8.5M APY (19th highest among "Edge-rushers").

It's really difficult to know where the Pats draw the line, since it's on a case-by-case basis. Hightower was allowed to "test the market" and landed back in NE at $8.875 APY. Would the Pats give that to Flowers? IDK.

One the one hand, I egregiously overestimated the market value for Fleming and Waddle (and I wasn't alone). OTOH, I suspect that many are underestimating the market value of Shaq Mason.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Depends on what "top dollar" is. Unless Flowers gets well into double-digit sack numbers in 2018, his top dollar isn't likely to be anywhere near Chandler Jones' top dollar of $16.5M APY (which was fairly easy to see coming). OTOH, even Sheard got $8.5M APY (19th highest among "Edge-rushers").

It's really difficult to know where the Pats draw the line, since it's on a case-by-case basis. Hightower was allowed to "test the market" and landed back in NE at $8.875 APY. Would the Pats give that to Flowers? IDK.

One the one hand, I egregiously overestimated the market value for Fleming and Waddle (and I wasn't alone). OTOH, I suspect that many are underestimating the market value of Shaq Mason.

I think Shaq is getting big bucks. Hes gonna be an All Pro this year and should have been last year. I think they drafted Wynn for LT but also if they can't reup Shaq.

Trey seems like a $9m/yr guy to me. He's a very , very good player. Decent pass rush but not a monster. Very good at setting the edge but not dominant.

 

[maineman209]

I think Shaq is getting big bucks. Hes gonna be an All Pro this year and should have been last year. I think they drafted Wynn for LT but also if they can't reup Shaq.

Trey seems like a $9m/yr guy to me. He's a very , very good player. Decent pass rush but not a monster. Very good at setting the edge but not dominant.

The first question is, "Would the Market value Flowers at $9M?" Based on his total production over the past two seasons, maybe not.

But, here's the thing with Flowers - 2016 was effectively his first season playing. He was playing roughly equal snaps (+/- 34 snaps per game apiece) with Nink, Long and Sheard in a 4-man rotation. He didn't get a lot of opportunities. He produced 7.0 sacks and 45 tackles.

In 2017, Flowers was spending most of his time trying to help stop the bleeding in run-defense (out of desperation). He really couldn't ever pin his ears back very often due to the weak DL and virtually non-existent edge-contain at the second level. In his 50 snaps/game, he produced 6.5 sacks and 62 tackles.

IOW, we may have yet to see what he can actually do when he's one of the primary two edge-rushers AND working with a strong DL. It's entirely possible that he could "explode" for 11+ sacks. That could certainly change the value picture for him in the market.

If his agent would allow it, the Pats might lock up Flowers on a 3-year extension right now for perhaps considerably less than $9M. After 2018, it might be a whole different ball game.

 

[Crazy Patriot Guy]

Pats have money too.

Take a look at the big deals they've doled out and tell me they don't

Certainly they do, and I hope we're able to keep him. But as you point out in a later post, he has a decent pass rush but isn't a monster, and is very good at setting the edge but isn't dominant. You think he's a very good player worth around $9 million/year.

Our problem will be if someone decides to pay him like he has a monster pass rush and is dominant setting the edge. That's normally what happens, which is why we lose players. Nate Solder is being paid like he's the best LT in the league, when he clearly isn't. Do you expect Flowers to have lukewarm interest from teams in free agency?

 

[mgteich]

I agree that posters aren't good at estimating the market, and Belichick's ability to sign players at reasonable prices.

I don't think the ability to sign Waddle or Fleming cheap is all that relevant. In Waddle, we are talking about a player that no one wanted. The only reason that we took him( after signing Tobin) is that Garcia was untested, and the draft hadn't happened. Even adding a 1st rounder, we still faded down 40 spots for yet another LT.

The discussion is very different if we are talking about Mason or Flowers. Presuming good seasons (or even average seasons), how likely is it that we will be willing to outbid those teams with the huge cap amounts available? I expect that Belichick would be willing to pay wither $10M AAV. He might not. He also may be willing to pay to beat all competition.

Depends on what "top dollar" is. Unless Flowers gets well into double-digit sack numbers in 2018, his top dollar isn't likely to be anywhere near Chandler Jones' top dollar of $16.5M APY (which was fairly easy to see coming). OTOH, even Sheard got $8.5M APY (19th highest among "Edge-rushers").

It's really difficult to know where the Pats draw the line, since it's on a case-by-case basis. Hightower was allowed to "test the market" and landed back in NE at $8.875 APY. Would the Pats give that to Flowers? IDK.

One the one hand, I egregiously overestimated the market value for Fleming and Waddle (and I wasn't alone). OTOH, I suspect that many are underestimating the market value of Shaq Mason.

 

[RobertWeathers]

The first question is, "Would the Market value Flowers at $9M?" Based on his total production over the past two seasons, maybe not.

But, here's the thing with Flowers - 2016 was effectively his first season playing. He was playing roughly equal snaps (+/- 34 snaps per game apiece) with Nink, Long and Sheard in a 4-man rotation. He didn't get a lot of opportunities. He produced 7.0 sacks and 45 tackles.

In 2017, Flowers was spending most of his time trying to help stop the bleeding in run-defense (out of desperation). He really couldn't ever pin his ears back very often due to the weak DL and virtually non-existent edge-contain at the second level. In his 50 snaps/game, he produced 6.5 sacks and 62 tackles.

IOW, we may have yet to see what he can actually do when he's one of the primary two edge-rushers AND working with a strong DL. It's entirely possible that he could "explode" for 11+ sacks. That could certainly change the value picture for him in the market.

If his agent would allow it, the Pats might lock up Flowers on a 3-year extension right now for perhaps considerably less than $9M. After 2018, it might be a whole different ball game.

Im hoping the Pats and Trey are talking turkey right now. For a 2nd tier DE edge guy $9m seems reasonable

 

[mgteich]

If his agent would allow it? What does that mean? IMHO, if the agent recommend such a deal, he should be fired.

If his agent would allow it, the Pats might lock up Flowers on a 3-year extension right now for perhaps considerably less than $9M. After 2018, it might be a whole different ball game.