Reality Check On Drafting A Quarterback

[Thelonious]

I think Maye already announced he will no longer play for North Carolina.

We're bascially at the end of their careers, there's no more to judge them on than their campus workouts.

Certainly, the amount of further information obtainable will inevitably vary from player to player. It would in my mind be a mistake to make anything like a final determination re any college player at this point for the reasons given in my OP. All the data is not in, and there is absolutely no need at this point to form any firm conclusions. The first step in that process, in any case, must be to put in place a competent GM, so that we can have the benefit of his or her input.

 

[wheresmosi]

This reality is true of any QB coming out of any draft. The probability of any 1st rounder regardless of draft position developing into a successful long term starter - meaning, say, someone who signs a second contract with the team - is about 40% at best.

I'd take Williams with the 1st pick. It's a risk worth taking.

Maye has #2 overall bust written all over him.

I'd stay the hell away from Nix. Despite his talent he comes off as a a little too jittery under pressure, and we've all had enough of that.

I like Penix if we traded back up into the bottom of the first round, but not anywhere near the top 10.

I think the injury risk is too big with Penix. And we are seeing more and more of that now.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Let's ignore the top 3 picks in the draft. They are indeed expected to succeed, although they often don't. In any case, a team has decided the short-term future of the franchise.
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How likely is one of the other QB's drafted to be a top 10 or even a mediocre QB in the NFL? Will there be 2 this year is the entire rest of the draft? So, after the first 2, teams will draft maybe 6 QB's in the first 5 rounds, hoping that theirs will be one of the two that is even a quality backup in a couple of years.

Let me bend a bit, perhaps we can have more hope that a QB in the top 16 has a future.
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Unless we have a top 3 pick, it is very unlikely that we get a QB that will be our franchise QB, although we might be the QB needy team that wins the lottery.
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The alternatives if we pick 3-8 are clear.
1) Draft the 3rd rated QB. We are unlikely to get him by trading down.
2) Count on the QB that we have signed in free agency to be our QB for the next 3 years while we draft one in the 2nd and/or third and try again next year, and the year after.
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So, we have 2 questions: the name of our coach and the name of our free agent QB.

Good post.

Need to look at the problem holistically.

The ultimate goal is to improve every year and have a balanced roster (offense and defense)

It's obvious the NEP must improve substantially just to be a .500 team in 2024.

There are so many areas of need for impact players.

Some can be addressed via FA.

Option A is clearly to nab a sho-in, franchise QB no question.

Option B is draft an elite talent somewhere and acquire a competent QB (Cousins) AND draft a QB.

 

[Wozzy]

The draft is a crapshoot, the large majority of them fail, the average NFL career lasts three years...

That being said, you can't be afraid to draft, it's still the best way to find players cheaply... draft better.