Reality Check On Drafting A Quarterback

[Steve102]

Here's the current list of NFL starters and their draft position:

Kyler Murray, 1st
Taylor Heineke, undrafted
Lamar Jackson, 32nd
Josh Allen, 7th
Bryce Young, 1st
Tyson Bagent, undrafted (never heard of him)
Joe Burrow, 1st
Desean Watson, 12th
Dak Prescott, 135th
Russell Wilson, 75th
Jared Goff, 1st
Jordan Love, 26th
CJ Stroud, 2nd
Gardner Minshew, 178
Trevor Lawrence, 1st
Patrick Mahomes, 10th
Aiden O'Connell, 135th
Justin Herbert, 6th
Brett Rypien, undrafted
Tua Tagovialova, 5th
Josh Dobbs, 135th
Mac, 15th
Derek Carr, 36th
Tommy Devito, undrafted
Zach Wilson, 2nd
Jalen Hurts, 53rd
Kenny Pickett, 20th
Brock Purdy, 262nd
Geno Smith 39th
Baker Mayfield, 1st
Will Levis, 33rd
Sam Howell, 144th

By my count, 15 first rounders, all with varying levels of success, from Mahomes being the man to Mac sucking and Mayfield going on world tour. I don't think it's a slam dunk that you have to take a guy at the top 1-5 to be assured you got the guy.

 

[turkeyneck]

Reading not 100 percent confirmed yet.
Said the decision has a long way to go.
I’m being selfish in the hopes of getting him in the third.
If he comes back to school he will more than likely be a first.

Yeah, I can't find the post that said he announced. I guess it was premature.

Ewers has some careful calculation to do. Coming out now he's not quite top tier and is slightly damaged goods. He'll be a reach in R1, might slip to 3/4. If he stays at TX he could play himself up to a top 5 position next year - or get injured. He's also got his backup who played pretty well while Ewers was injured nipping at his heels - and then there's that other Manning. I'm sure Archie is working all the pressure points to make sure young Arch advances as fast as possible.

 

[venecol]

Here's the current list of NFL starters and their draft position:

Kyler Murray, 1st
Taylor Heineke, undrafted
Lamar Jackson, 32nd
Josh Allen, 7th
Bryce Young, 1st
Tyson Bagent, undrafted (never heard of him)
Joe Burrow, 1st
Desean Watson, 12th
Dak Prescott, 135th
Russell Wilson, 75th
Jared Goff, 1st
Jordan Love, 26th
CJ Stroud, 2nd
Gardner Minshew, 178
Trevor Lawrence, 1st
Patrick Mahomes, 10th
Aiden O'Connell, 135th
Justin Herbert, 6th
Brett Rypien, undrafted
Tua Tagovialova, 5th
Josh Dobbs, 135th
Mac, 15th
Derek Carr, 36th
Tommy Devito, undrafted
Zach Wilson, 2nd
Jalen Hurts, 53rd
Kenny Pickett, 20th
Brock Purdy, 262nd
Geno Smith 39th
Baker Mayfield, 1st
Will Levis, 33rd
Sam Howell, 144th

By my count, 15 first rounders, all with varying levels of success, from Mahomes being the man to Mac sucking and Mayfield going on world tour. I don't think it's a slam dunk that you have to take a guy at the top 1-5 to be assured you got the guy.

There's been a few injuries though: Cousins, Rodgers, Jones, etc. Watson is now out and PJ Walker is in. Heinike got injured and they went back to Ridder, etc. Then there's O'Connell vs JimmyG, lol.

 

[Love The Drake]

Yeah, I can't find the post that said he announced. I guess it was premature.

Ewers has some careful calculation to do. Coming out now he's not quite top tier and is slightly damaged goods. He'll be a reach in R1, might slip to 3/4. If he stays at TX he could play himself up to a top 5 position next year - or get injured. He's also got his backup who played pretty well while Ewers was injured nipping at his heels - and then there's that other Manning. I'm sure Archie is working all the pressure points to make sure young Arch advances as fast as possible.

Hoping he declares I like the kid and it deepens the change of getting a good QB if we take Harrison first. I wish I could be a fly in the wall in Krafts office.

 

[upstater1]

Here's the current list of NFL starters and their draft position:

Kyler Murray, 1st
Taylor Heineke, undrafted
Lamar Jackson, 32nd
Josh Allen, 7th
Bryce Young, 1st
Tyson Bagent, undrafted (never heard of him)
Joe Burrow, 1st
Desean Watson, 12th
Dak Prescott, 135th
Russell Wilson, 75th
Jared Goff, 1st
Jordan Love, 26th
CJ Stroud, 2nd
Gardner Minshew, 178
Trevor Lawrence, 1st
Patrick Mahomes, 10th
Aiden O'Connell, 135th
Justin Herbert, 6th
Brett Rypien, undrafted
Tua Tagovialova, 5th
Josh Dobbs, 135th
Mac, 15th
Derek Carr, 36th
Tommy Devito, undrafted
Zach Wilson, 2nd
Jalen Hurts, 53rd
Kenny Pickett, 20th
Brock Purdy, 262nd
Geno Smith 39th
Baker Mayfield, 1st
Will Levis, 33rd
Sam Howell, 144th

By my count, 15 first rounders, all with varying levels of success, from Mahomes being the man to Mac sucking and Mayfield going on world tour. I don't think it's a slam dunk that you have to take a guy at the top 1-5 to be assured you got the guy.

A lot of the non-1st guys listed were backups elevated into their role, and they probably shouldn't be starters.

For me, the only exceptions are Jalen Hurts, Howell (but he's very young, we don't know what he'll become), Purdy, Russell Wilson, and Dak Prescott. Some of these guys like Wilson have been in the league for a very long time.

The chances of finding a Hurts or Prescott in the lower rounds are incredibly slim.

 

[The Gr8est]

Better hope BB leaves then. Cause I think the Pats will trade down with the 5th pick and grab an offensive guard with pick 26 and a safety with their day 2 pick.
I have little faith in the current administrations drafting process.
I also see another 2 wins this season.

So if the Pats boot BB and draft a QB high, all of our problems are solved.

Easy Peasy.

The sure road to success.

Unless it isn’t.

 

[Steve102]

A lot of the non-1st guys listed were backups elevated into their role, and they probably shouldn't be starters.

For me, the only exceptions are Jalen Hurts, Howell (but he's very young, we don't know what he'll become), Purdy, Russell Wilson, and Dak Prescott. Some of these guys like Wilson have been in the league for a very long time.

The chances of finding a Hurts or Prescott in the lower rounds are incredibly slim.

I dunno man. Lamar was 32nd. Carr 36th. Love 26th. Even Mahomes was just 10th. I think they (whoever they end up being) can get their guy, as long as they do their homework, without being in the top 5. Harrison is the play IMO. Then grab a guy like Ewers (if he comes out) or JJ McCarthy later. Sign a vet, dump Mac.

 

[venecol]

So if the Pats boot BB and draft a QB high, all of our problems are solved.

Easy Peasy.

The sure road to success.

Unless it isn’t.

What worked for 20 years, no longer works. We have to try something different. Inaction is death.

 

[The Gr8est]

Here's the current list of NFL starters and their draft position:

Kyler Murray, 1st
Taylor Heineke, undrafted
Lamar Jackson, 32nd
Josh Allen, 7th
Bryce Young, 1st
Tyson Bagent, undrafted (never heard of him)
Joe Burrow, 1st
Desean Watson, 12th
Dak Prescott, 135th
Russell Wilson, 75th
Jared Goff, 1st
Jordan Love, 26th
CJ Stroud, 2nd
Gardner Minshew, 178
Trevor Lawrence, 1st
Patrick Mahomes, 10th
Aiden O'Connell, 135th
Justin Herbert, 6th
Brett Rypien, undrafted
Tua Tagovialova, 5th
Josh Dobbs, 135th
Mac, 15th
Derek Carr, 36th
Tommy Devito, undrafted
Zach Wilson, 2nd
Jalen Hurts, 53rd
Kenny Pickett, 20th
Brock Purdy, 262nd
Geno Smith 39th
Baker Mayfield, 1st
Will Levis, 33rd
Sam Howell, 144th

By my count, 15 first rounders, all with varying levels of success, from Mahomes being the man to Mac sucking and Mayfield going on world tour. I don't think it's a slam dunk that you have to take a guy at the top 1-5 to be assured you got the guy.

Sometimes you get a Brady who felt slighted and had a chip his whole career.

 

[The Gr8est]

What worked for 20 years, no longer works. We have to try something different. Inaction is death.

OK,

But getting a winning HC and QB isn’t easy.

If it fails who will people point the finger at?

 

[upstater1]

I dunno man. Lamar was 32nd. Carr 36th. Love 26th. Even Mahomes was just 10th. I think they (whoever they end up being) can get their guy, as long as they do their homework, without being in the top 5. Harrison is the play IMO. Then grab a guy like Ewers (if he comes out) or JJ McCarthy later. Sign a vet, dump Mac.

I don't consider that later rounds though.

I recently went back and looked at the QBs drafted in the later rounds over the last 20 years. There are a ton of them. It just reinforces for me that it's not the way to go.

If you can't get Williams or Maye, you need to take a kid with talent like Sanders or Daniels in the 2nd round, and then sign Kevin Cousins.

 

[Steve102]

Sometimes you get a Brady who felt slighted and had a chip his whole career.

I definitely think that enters into it. I think that it's possible some first round guys come into the league with a swelled head. My shat lacks aroma, if anything, it smells like fresh cut roses.

It's widely reported that it's hard to be a New England Patriot, and perhaps it takes a lunatic with a huge chip on his shoulder to prove everyone wrong and make them pay for an entire career of being slighted to be a Patriot. It's clearly not for everyone. The trick is going to be to find a guy who can be a leader with the type of work ethic needed who's good enough to get them to the promised land and can elevate those around him. Piece of cake right?

 

[denverpatsfan]

So if the Pats boot BB and draft a QB high, all of our problems are solved.

Easy Peasy.

The sure road to success.

Unless it isn’t.

Obviously you need to hire a competent GM and new head coach.
What is your plan? The team has been trending the wrong way for the past 4 seasons.

 

[venecol]

OK,

But getting a winning HC and QB isn’t easy.

If it fails who will people point the finger at?

If it fails, you try again, just like we did before the dynasty. It is what it is. We can't continue down this path with an aging GM/HC just because he was great once. There are many examples of this happening with other greats. There's only a handful of past HCs in their 70s, and their overall record isn't great (Pete Carroll skews the results - he's the exception).

 

[VrabelJr]

Great post. Always trade back if you have a top 5 pick and are going through a rebuild unless there's some serious generational, can't miss prospect at a very important position.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Great post. Always trade back if you have a top 5 pick and are going through a rebuild unless there's some serious generational, can't miss prospect at a very important position.

The post isn’t backed by any type of evidence and is basically just lazy common wisdom. There are studies out there about QBs and draft position and @Steve102 has some good data. However, the fact is that even a 10 year analysis doesn’t necessarily have relevance to the 2024 draft. Each position varies year to year. For example, this type of analysis would make no sense for the 2022 Draft since Kenny Pickett was the first QB taken at #20, whereas Burrow, Tua, and Herbert would have all been justified at #1 but due to team needs and the competition between the three, Tua and Herbert were both picked outside the top three.

OP emphasizes first three picks is hotspot for QBs, but based on Steve’s data, only 8 of 32 starters are top 3 picks, and of those only Burrow could be considered a sure hit while Lawrence and Stroud are promising.

 

[Steve102]

The post isn’t backed by any type of evidence and is basically just lazy common wisdom. There are studies out there about QBs and draft position and @Steve102 has some good data.

 

[Triumph]

It's simple.

Option A - If BBs job is really on the line he will use every trick in the book to win.

Option B - If BBs job is not in jeopardy, then the Tank is full on press mode for the highest draft slot possible. Of course it can't be obvious.

Thus far, BB has done nothing that indicates to me that we are in Option A.

 

[Sam Bam Cunningham]

Let's ignore the top 3 picks in the draft. They are indeed expected to succeed, although they often don't. In any case, a team has decided the short-term future of the franchise.
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How likely is one of the other QB's drafted to be a top 10 or even a mediocre QB in the NFL? Will there be 2 this year is the entire rest of the draft? So, after the first 2, teams will draft maybe 6 QB's in the first 5 rounds, hoping that theirs will be one of the two that is even a quality backup in a couple of years.

Let me bend a bit, perhaps we can have more hope that a QB in the top 16 has a future.
===================
Unless we have a top 3 pick, it is very unlikely that we get a QB that will be our franchise QB, although we might be the QB needy team that wins the lottery.
================
The alternatives if we pick 3-8 are clear.
1) Draft the 3rd rated QB. We are unlikely to get him by trading down.
2) Count on the QB that we have signed in free agency to be our QB for the next 3 years while we draft one in the 2nd and/or third and try again next year, and the year after.
==========
So, we have 2 questions: the name of our coach and the name of our free agent QB.

Let's look at the best teams in the league and how they acquired their franchise QB's

Chiefs- draft round 1
Eagles- draft round 2
Cowboys - round 3
Niners- round 7
Ravens- Round 1
Chargers- Round 1
Dolphins- round 1
Bills- round 1
Steelers- round 1
Texans- Round 1


DRAFT a QB for long term success. Do it in round 1 to maximize chances for success

 

[Boston Boxer]

Anybody watched ND's Hartman? I've seen him only a few quarters of play, but I like his composure as a later-round (3rd, 4th) flyer. Seemed to have some maturity on the field, but again, VERY small sample size.

I'm a Notre Dame fan and i would pass on Hartman. He will be a good back up but not a starter.