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QB of the future

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by miloofcroton, May 4, 2018.

  1. miloofcroton

    miloofcroton Practice Squad Player

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    I'm taking a quick look at the QBs again, starting with who played in the Senior Bowl and Shrine Game...

    Lock doesn't look the part, to me. That release concerns me. Rivers has gotten away with it, but he's Rivers. He's also just not sharp, which is part accuracy and part arm strength.

    Grier looks like Baker Mayfield except slower and with a weaker arm. I'd be concerned with him pulling cowboy stuff in the NFL. His arm strength is really going to hamper what his ceiling is, so I'd consider him a guy that would hamstring a team more than help them, if they ever had to rely on him as the #1 guy. That being said, he very well may be a starter. Hard to say what the bottom half of the NFL will do.

    Easton Stick probably won't make a team next year. Didn't look good at all.

    Brett Rypien, who I was excited to see, looks like a career backup in a West Coast system. Very tight mechanics but zero ability to make tough throws.

    Trace McSorley looked surprisingly decent. Quick release, decent velocity, good mobility (which we knew), make quick decisions. I like him. I saw some horrible accuracy though, which is concerning.

    Gardner Minshew looks very rough around the edges (e.g. why is he hopping between reads, why is he not throwing in rhythm, why is he holding onto the ball), but his mechanics and arm strength look pretty good. I saw tons of inaccuracy, but he could be a decent midround project.

    Daniel Jones looks like a #1 overall type guy, just with his build, arm strength, and personality. I have a hard time believing there won't be a QB-needy team at the very top that won't fall in love with him. He didn't play great though.

    Ryan Finley is super flat footed with a long windup, and he has a bad arm. So, he shouldn't even hear his name called in the draft, right? Well, he has good field vision and pretty good accuracy. I could see him getting with a QB coach that can get a lot more out of him, cleaning up his footwork and giving him a more powerful delivery. I wouldn't spend more than a late rounder on him, but he's a sleeper if you have the right coaches.

    Tyree Jackson looks like a prospect that everyone will think the NFL is enamored with, but scouts are probably just trying to do their homework because he wasn't really even on the radar before declaring. He's just a guy with tools that no one will ever get anything more out of, most likely. You don't learn how to become a QB when you're already in the NFL. Also, his height is more a liability than a benefit.

    Jarrett Stidham certainly passes the eye test. Reminds me a lot of Matt Stafford. Great lightness in the pocket, fast release, and rocket arm. He makes boneheaded plays here and there; can't say if it's just unluckiness or if he lacks awareness (like scrambling and getting strip-sacked). I do get the impression that he's an intelligent guy though, so I like him.


    Jones and Stidham are both worthy of high picks, even though neither is without some red flags.
    McSorley is an underdog with surprisingly big potential.
    Finley and Minshew are both worth a look, albeit for very different reasons.
    I'd pass on everyone else that I've seen.

    Kinda disappointed that Thorson didn't play.

    I'll do a quick eval of the three other QBs not mentioned who are, in my opinion, worth consideration.

    Dwayne Haskins has a laser rocket arm, much like Stidham. His QB play is less polished, in terms of footwork and whatnot, but that is to be expected from a first year starter. He does float a lot of balls, but some would say this is 'touch'. With smaller windows in the NFL, he'll just not be able to get away with it as much. You saw him get pressued and stressed in some big games, but overall, I think he's a gamer. He shows a lot of confidence in throwing downfield, which is important.

    Kyle Shurmur is a coach's son, but I'm ironically unimpressed with his decision making but impressed with his tools. He's kind of in the Gardner Minshew category for me. Worth a mid-late pick if you want a guy to try to develop for a couple years.

    Thorson is mediocre in every way. Mediocre arm (looks good by college standards, but he floats everything and won't be able to take advantage of windows in the same way). To be fair, he was also coming off a knee injury, and I have seen more of a cannon out of him. Mediocre mobility (he can definitely throw on the run and move a little, but there are guys in the draft who are much quicker. Mediocre to good accuracy and decision making. I actually see shades of Haskins in him, but he looks different from game to game. Northwestern is a tough place to play QB though, so that's another thing to keep in mind.

    He's 6'4" 220, and he has 4 years of starting experience, so he's kind of checking every box, but what is he really giving you? I'd take him with a mid rounder. Maybe a 3rd if I was confident enough. Again to be fair, the same could have been said about Tom Brady, and this is the most Tom Brady-like prospect in the draft, in my opinion.


    Rank (grade):
    1. Jones (1st)
    2. Stidham (1st)
    3. Haskins (1st)
    4. McSorley (2nd)
    5. Thorson (3rd)
    5. Lock (3rd)
    6. Finley (4th)
    7. Minshew (6th)
    8. Shurmur (6th)
    9. Grier (7th)
    10. Browning (7th)
    11. Rypien (7th)
    12. Jackson (UDFA)
    13. Stick (UDFA)

    The Pats could either hope one of the top 3 drops to them or even into the 10s/20s (a la Aaron Rodgers) and then move up for them, or they could focus on McSorley/Thorson/Finley, who are the only other guys who might be starters in the future.

    Interestingly, the top 3 guys all have real questions about past experience and performance, and the next three guys (McSorley, Thorson, Finley) all have great resumes with experience and performance proving themselves. That will make for some interesting tension as the draft approaches.

    edit: I might be giving too much credit to McSorley right now, since I'm projecting out a few things. I assume his inaccuracy in the Senior Bowl was not his normal.

    edit #2: forgot to add Lock to my ranking
     
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    Last edited: Feb 5, 2019

  2. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    What do the grades represent? Where you would take them, where you think a GM should take them, or where a GM will take them?
     
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  3. miloofcroton

    miloofcroton Practice Squad Player

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    It's where I would consider taking them. It doesn't necessarily reflect where I would definitely take them because I'm not completely certain yet. Grading is hard because sometimes it's a very binary thing; you either like him or you don't, and you can't put a number on that. So, I think these guys have roughly the talent that I have given them a grade for, but I'm not certain who I would want.

    I think it's a more mature view because while you may either love or hate a particular prospect, you have to admit that you are not god, you do not have 100% certainty with any of your information. So, there might be a QB you really like as a potential franchise guy, but you still only have a 2nd round grade on him because you have to admit that the draft is a fickle process, and playing the percentages is better than trying to be a braniac that picks all the steals and unknown guys before anyone else would have taken them. In the long run, that doesn't work out well. For instance, when you take the rose-colored glasses off, your 'franchise QB' might just be Andy Dalton, and do you really want to invest first round resources in a Dalton clone?

    I almost talked myself into Thorson at the end, actually, just given the offense that the Pats have and how well he would fit. My mind tells me Jones though, who I think we don't have a chance in hell at getting.
     
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    Last edited: Feb 5, 2019
  4. miloofcroton

    miloofcroton Practice Squad Player

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    On second thought, re: Jones and the other 1st round grades, it looks like the top of the draft is loaded with non-QBs and teams that don't need QBs (theoretically). So, there is a pretty good chance these guys get into the teens, and then it starts get interesting. This might happen to be a fantastic year for the Pats to draft the QB that they want.

    #6 Giants, #7 Jags, and then #10 thru #13 (Broncos, Bengals, Packers, Dolphins) and #15 (Redskins) would seem to be where the QBs would potentially go.
     
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  5. BaconGrundleCandy

    BaconGrundleCandy Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Do you have an actual scale, system, formula etc or is this basically your opinion of where you would take them?
     
  6. miloofcroton

    miloofcroton Practice Squad Player

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    It's all based on feel.
     
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  7. BaconGrundleCandy

    BaconGrundleCandy Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Nothing wrong w that at all
     
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  8. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    A couple of mock drafts have us taking the northwestern qb in the third round.

    There was a lot of talk of the patriots liking this kid before the season began.
     
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  9. p8ryts

    p8ryts Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    No science here just eyeball from watching the games. Looking at it from a Patriots perspective where I don't think it makes sense to go all in for a QB this year I would consider Stidham in round 2 definitely in 3. Finley round 4, Rypien in 6 or 7. Liked Mc Sorley for about 5 minutes then decided he wasn't accurate enough. I'm really interested to see if Etling has any potential in his second year. I haven't heard anything about his progress this year. I actually liked Rypien best, although competition may have been a factor but he seemed decisive, had a good release and seemed accurate with decent arm strength.
     
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  10. miloofcroton

    miloofcroton Practice Squad Player

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    Rypien's arm looked super weak in the Shrine game. Maybe his college offense was able to hide that. Same with Etling. Dude does not have a major league arm.

    I don't necessarily disagree with Stidham or McSorley. I could see reasons to put them there, but they at least have higher potential in my mind.
     
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  11. Brandon_Cox

    Brandon_Cox On the Game Day Roster

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    This thread reminded me I haven't checked the draft board in a while. There seem to be a few current threads. When does the draft board really get cranking?
     
  12. reamer

    reamer Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    We've been "cranking" all year. Maybe you're just looking at the wrong threads? What do you want to know? There's a core of us who post in this subforum every single day.

    EDIT: Sorry if that came off harsh. I'm happy to help if you've got questions.
     
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    Last edited: Feb 6, 2019
  13. Brandon_Cox

    Brandon_Cox On the Game Day Roster

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    It’s me not you:)
     
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  14. ChrisR2223

    ChrisR2223 Pro Bowl Player

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    Jonss and Stidham only QBs I like but I will keep watching for other prospects.
     
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  15. JerseyShore99

    JerseyShore99 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    My two as well
     
  16. ChrisR2223

    ChrisR2223 Pro Bowl Player

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    Is Lock worth a move up?
     
  17. reamer

    reamer Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    For a guy who struggles with pressure and isn't super accurate and will sit on the bench for 2+ years anyway? I dunno about that . . .
     
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  18. jboston19

    jboston19 Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    This guy does amazing artwork.

    I also know now that I’m a huge fan of the way he thinks.
     
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