Man I would love it if a thread like this was just discussing strategy/x's and o's.
Let's do that now. I do think the best strategy on offense is to slow the game down. I think teams that are heavy underdogs (and I consider the Patriots just that in that match up) should try to decrease the number of possessions. I believe that the more possessions the more the better team is likely to show their advantage, when limiting the amount of possessions that one big mistake by the favorites is likely to swing the game. I'd love to see the Pats dominate time of possession.
On the other hand, the best part of the Patriots team is their pass rush. Usually the pass rush has the most success when they can pin their ears back in passing situations. If the Pats could some how get up early and force the Bills to try to score quickly against cover 2 or 3 then the Pats pass rush could really be a factor. It is amazing how great the Pats pass rush has been this year without the benefit of really being up big in almost any game. Since getting a big lead is unlikely, I think the Pats will need to play a lot of coverage heavy looks and hope their pass rushers win one and one battles. Force the Bills to score in long 10 play drives rather than with explosive plays.
In theory an aggressive offense would make a lot of sense here. The Bills are on their third sting safety and I'm not that impressed with their corners (White hasn't been as good coming back from injury as he has been in the past). If I was at all confident in the Pats ability to go deep it would make 100% sense for the Pats to try to get over the top of the Bills defense. I think the Bills defensive strength is at their linebackers with Edmunds an Milano, in the past these guys have stifled the Patriots run game and given the short passing game fits too.
So based on the Bills strengths I think a spread offense with deep passing concepts is the best way to attack them, on defense creating pressure with 4 and waiting for Allen to make mistakes throwing into coverage heavy sets would probably be ideal. I just have no faith in the Pats offensive line to hold up long enough or the receivers to create enough separation to take advantage of the Bills secondary. With the way the Pats have struggled to consistently execute, getting explosive plays on offense would help because it would minimize the times they needed to run a play perfectly. The answer might be to try to manufacture big plays using trick plays and formations to fool the Bills.
Ok, I’ll follow your lead. Some of the following is obvious and the rest is unlikely but should be marginally better than speculating about the suspensions of two players who were never going to be playing this game anyway.
Recipe for a major upset:
DEFENSE:
1. Barmore was back to his dominant self last week. Collapse the pocket with him on the interior, Judon and Uche on the edge. Force Allen to make some ill-advised throws. If he throws the ball to the DBs, which he likely will, they MUST catch it.
2. Don't overpursue on the edge and give Allen running lanes. When Allen runs with the ball, make him pay (legally).
3. Match Marcus Jones up with Diggs. Tough assignment for the rookie but he is their only DB who can come close to matching Diggs' quickness and change of direction explosiveness.
4. Dugger (and at times Phillips) have to hold Knox in check, especially in the red zone.
6. Dear Lord, please give Jon Jones enough health to be active and not too limited by his chest/shoulder injurt. Let him match up with McKenzie in the slot. I cannot take another McKenzie versus Bryant matchup.
7. Go after the ball on every run play or yac opportunities for their receivers. If the Pats have any chance, they need to force a turnover (or, more likely, 2+) to give the offense short fields.
8. I was going to have Mills covering Davis, but now I have no idea who is going to be given that assignment. Maybe Davis will pull a hammy early in the game.
9. Make Buffalo punt at least twice.
OFFENSE:
1. Get Harris more involved. Mondre has looked a bit gassed recently, not surprisingly. Need to be able to run the ball and extend some drives, eat up clock. Harris should be motivated to go beast mode, going into his free agency off-season. He has been injured so often this year than it is easy to forget how good he was last year when healthy.
2. Exploit the fact that the Bills do not currently have a starting caliber free safety.
3. BE AGGRESSIVE in the passing game. The Bills cannot be beaten with a conservative game-plan. Give Bourne more snaps. Let him try to make impactful plays, like he did all of last year. He is not afraid of big moments and big games and that attitude and confidence seem to be in short supply on offense. Keep taking shots down the field with Thornton. The Bills have nobody that can mmatch his speed. Tyquan, when Mac hits you in the hands on a deep ball, for the love of God catch it. Give Parker a couple of opportunities to make a big play on some 50/50 balls. The Bills top CBs are all under 6 ft tall. If Mac is going to throw pick being aggressive, make sure that it is deep into the Bills territory, preferably on third down (that probably will be better option than a Palardy punt anyway….Jesus does that guy suck).
4. Be aware of Poyer at all times, just like they were with Ed Reed in the past.
5. Don't go Brandon Staley Full R*tard Mode but be aggressive on 4th downs in Bills territory. FGs aren't going to be good enough against the Bills.
6. If you have a chance to put up points right before the half, let Mac sling it.
SPECIAL TEAMS:
1. Need a game changing punt or kickoff return from Marcus, while preventing the Bills from doing the same.
2. Folk needs to stop missing extra points.
3. Stop running into the damn punter and giving the opponent’s drive new life.
4. Stop having brain farts on punt protection. In 90% of games in which a punt is blocked, the team that makes the block wins the game.
