Bob's B-b-b-b-breakdown!
QB – Winston is a guy we all should know by now. A player who isn't afraid to go for the big play and make mistakes. And it is a good thing he's not afraid, cause he makes a lot. But he also makes occasional big plays, with his legs and his arm. The Pats can and will exploit him. Hill is king of the gimmick play, an import back up QB to note. A change of pace player to be wary of.
OL – This unit was among the best last year. This year has been inconsistent. The big news is their starting Center Erik McCoy is out for a while. The other 4 of Armstead – T , Ramczyk – T, and Peat – G and Ruiz - G/C are healthy. Peat has always been one of the weaker links in this line. But the 2nd year player Ruiz has simply not come along well. But much of their issues at guard have been covered for by outstanding tackle play and very solid play at Center. While not their best OL man, McCoy's lose might be the hardest to absorb. They definitely had issues against the Panthers pass rush all around. It looked like the tackles were left completely 1v1 all game on a island so the middle could try to hold up 2v3. Neither really worked all that well.
Looking back on even week 1 when they stomped the Packers, many of their offensive plays were made despite their OL, not because of it. Most runs that worked were bounced to the outside or amazing plays by Kamara. Winston made a number of good passes on the run or with guys right in his face. I think this unit is in trouble right now. And it can be exploited. Even Not only is their interior shot, but their tackles, which are still good on paper, have just been under performing and losing match ups. Hopefully that continues.
WR – Literally who? That is the question. I couldn't name a WR on their team right now without looking it up. Michael Thomas being out is an absolute killer for this group. Add in their low level #2 Tre'quan Smith is on IR and they have nothing here. Callaway leads this group in snaps as a 2nd year UDFA who hasn't developed yet. Deonte Harris is another young player who is a much better return man than WR. A 3rd year UDFA. Humphrey is a 2nd year UDFA. Johnson is a 2nd year UDFA. And they have Chris Hogan, who we will all remember. For all the praise the Saints get as an organization, this is horrible management. Not that UDFAs can't be good, but how do you so obviously depend entirely on 1 WR without investing anything behind him in today's NFL? Easily the worst core in the NFL right now. And just for fun, yes Hogan went undrafted too
TE – They don't really use Tight Ends that much in the passing game. Kind of a rarity in today's NFL. Even when they had a decent one last year in Cook they didn't use him near enough IMO. Right now their starter is Trautman, who is on the field more often than not and the only other guy who sees any snaps at all is Griffen. Trautman is another young player who has yet to produce pretty much anything in the passing game. Griffen has never caught a pass in the NFL. Vannett was suppose to be an unpgrade here, but injury bug. Moving right along.
RB – Kamara. Kamara Kamara Kamara. That is the only name anyone on the defensive side of the ball should be thinking about. Players and coaches. How do we stop Kamara? And he is still damn hard to stop. Even with no support around him he can STILL make something out of nothing. Even with a struggling OL he can still find room to run. He is the only chance they have of scoring much of anything. Montgomery can be decent in limited snaps and is also a threat to catch. Tony Smith is the #3 but there isn't enough on film to say anything about him besides he seems competent enough.
Offense Analysis – The OL is having big issues. And upon reflection, a big part of that may just be the defense has no fear of anyone but Karama. If I was a DC looking at the personnel across from me I'd be chomping at the bit to attack. I wsh there was more to talk about here, but there just isn't. It all comes down to stopping Kamara and waiting to take advantage of Winston going for risky plays. If the Pats for some reason come down on the wrong side of those (no excuse to do so, because we have much better DBs than they do WRs), it could get more interesting.
Saints Defense
DL – Davenport being out is big. But they still have talent here. Jordan is still one of the better Ends in the NFL. Kpassagnon appeared to be a game time decision or close to it last week. He should play this week, which is big for them. Also of note. Granderson is seeing time at DE and has done okay, though he'll fit better in as a back up. At DT they do a very close to equal split of Roach, Tuttle, Ringo and Huggins (going in that order by snap count). Roach is a 2nd year player who hasn't really produced much yet, they are hoping with time the light will go on. Tuttle is a good player but not much of a pass rusher. More of a point of attack guy/run stuffer I think? Ringo was found on the scrap heap. He has flashed a little but I don't trust it in the least. And Huggins is a 3rd year journey man who is rarely active when things are right.
A sneaky important absence is David Onyemata who is suspended for this game. He played the 2nd most snaps of any defensive lineman for them last year. He gets pressure from all over the line, but is very good from the DT spot. He doesn't get a lot of actual sacks compared to other guys, which is why he isn't as well known, but he's a good player. I'd compare him to Guy for us in a lot of ways. Another Note, this group lost Trey Henderson and Rankins last year and didn't really replace them with equal players, though Kpassagnon isn't bad. Not truly elite but a good pieces.
There has been a lot of change and there are a lot of moving pieces on this unit. Hence the long write up. Overall they will still get pressure. They have the past few games. And Kpassagnon coming back will give them a boost, but DT is still a huge issue and they will not be as effective as they could be. It is also worth noting GB had OL issues vs NO with their star LT being out. And the Panthers have an average OL when completely healthy, but are having some guard issues. The Pats will be the best OL they have faced. Even with it under performing a little at times.
LB – Demario Davis, Zach Baun and Kaden Elliss are the Lbs right now with Kwon Alexander out. Dowell will play a little, but not enough to really note. Davis is a very good player who has been under appreciated for a while. He only made 1 pro bowl and did it as an all pro. He should have really been to more. He will be someone we need to be weary of testing. Baun is a 2nd year player who doesn't seem ready for anything close to a full time role. But that is where he is as the clear #2 LB. Elliss is a 3rd year JAG. A simple plan is needed here. Avoid Davis, attack everyone else.
CB – Lattimore may well be a game time decision, but I it would be foolish to assume he won't play. According to PFF, he has regressed every year. But I still think he's one of the better #1s in the game, regardless of their grades. But he isn't a shut down guy. Paulson Adebo is a rookie given the starting nod here, and so far.. meh. Their #3 Is Trufant, which is odd. He had a down year last year but he's a good player. Bradley Roby handles the slot, but he's not the force he once was, likely due to injury or just more tape being out on him, as he is only 29
S – Macrus Williams, Malcolm Jenkins, PJ Williams, CJ Gardner-Johnson has been injured a bit, but it looks like he will suit up for this one. Him, Williams and Jenkins are all pretty much all starters on this D. When all of them are healthy they all see over 80% of the snaps on the field. This also indicates the flexibility they have on the back end with their DBS. You can't always be sure whose lined up in what spot. They go back and forth easily between zone and man. And with this cast I see no reason why they won't have success doing it again.
That being said, Jenkins is a solid but not amazing player. His reputation exceeds his abilities slightly, particularly the last few years. At 34 he may have lost something.. Williams may well be the best player in this group. Also Gardner-Johnson has arguably regressed since his stand out rookie year. Simply put, this group is deep but the high end talent isn't as amazing as it could be. But when it comes to facing a team like the Pats depth is probably more important, as a true CB1 would be wasted.
Defensive Analysis – Even with missing Davenport, Alexander and some other people who may or may not play, this unit is still one of the better ones in the NFL all around. They are generally deep and have a number of stand out players to supplement it. But they have a few key weaknesses this year they didn't have last year. Their DT position (from a pass rush perspective) is fairly sub par. Though running on this group or on this front at all likely won't accomplish much Their LB core is in shambles, and they have a secondary that while deep has some issues. A lot of young ineffective players and some older players/players on a downward trajectory. Still, that group should be more than good enough for our pass catching options.
Overall the plan is probably simply. Play safe on offense, try to turn it over the defense. Be the team that makes the least mistakes. Also, be willing to give up on the run when on offense if it isn't working. They are good at stopping it. Lean on the short passing game, particularly that of White and our Tight Ends vs their Line Backers. The ling SHOULD be able to buy a reasonable amount of time against a pass rush that on paper isn't as imposing as years past.
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