Patriots Pregame Thread Pre-Game - Divisional Round Texans at Patriots

[JoeyCee]

After seeing Stroud last night, I have a lot of confidence in the pats. He will beat himself.

 

[dannydyn]

Wish Hollins was back. We could really use every last offensive weapon against that D.

 

[JMC00]

People gonna look at the final score but the game was a lot closer. Steelers held them to 7 points thru 3 qtrs, then Texans got a FG 2 minutes into the 4th qtr, then on the next drive Rodgers fumbles on 3rd and 12 and they got the return TD. Had Rodgers not fumbled Steelers punt and its still a 10-6 game, think it ends a lot closer than it did. Instead Texans get the return TD, Steelers pitiful offense goes back out and being down 11 Rodgers is out there throwing it deep 4-5 times and kill 2 minutes of the clock.

It's funny how much Rodgers polluted the Steelers, 3rd and 12 at the 46 in a 10-6 game Tomlin would have in years past played that conservative and had them run it and then punt it and try to pin them deep and play field position Instead Rodgers got them dropping back to throw it deep on 3rd and 12 only down 4.

Ultimately Steelers decided to play Rodgers football, instead of Tomlin football but problem is Rodgers can't play Rodgers football anymore and well you see the result

 

[Thelonious]

I don't know if we can get deep on them: but if they are opportunities We Must capitalize.

I don't either, but given our past and their secondary''s emphasis on stopping the short passing game, it's worth a try.

 

[mike_usagisan]

People gonna look at the final score but the game was a lot closer. Steelers held them to 7 points thru 3 qtrs, then Texans got a FG 2 minutes into the 4th qtr, then on the next drive Rodgers fumbles on 3rd and 12 and they got the return TD. Had Rodgers not fumbled Steelers punt and its still a 10-6 game, think it ends a lot closer than it did. Instead Texans get the return TD, Steelers pitiful offense goes back out and being down 11 Rodgers is out there throwing it deep 4-5 times and kill 2 minutes of the clock.

It's funny how much Rodgers polluted the Steelers, 3rd and 12 at the 46 in a 10-6 game Tomlin would have in years past played that conservative and had them run it and then punt it and try to pin them deep and play field position Instead Rodgers got them dropping back to throw it deep on 3rd and 12 only down 4.

Ultimately Steelers decided to play Rodgers football, instead of Tomlin football but problem is Rodgers can't play Rodgers football anymore and well you see the result

I wonder if Rodgers will be back or if the Steelers will go looking for some other recently-deceased corpse to be their QB?

 

[Patsfan1645]

I wonder if Rodgers will be back or if the Steelers will go looking for some other recently-deceased corpse to be their QB?

Perhaps Rivers?

 

[BobDigital]

Sad that Nico is hurt... yes it helps the Pats... but i kind of didn't want any excuses available. That gives them one.

A few things about the Texans i want to mention... Their 13th ranked offense in PPG is not nearly so good. They are 18th in YPG. 29th in YPA rushing and 19th in YPA passing. So lower than that mark are a per play basis in both areas... particularly running.

What i think all this tells us is that the Texans run more offensive plays than most teams. I think this is in part because that D gets them more chances to have the ball. And outside of giving their team the ball in their possession they also give them very good field position and score a fair amount of points themselves. They had 5 defensive TDs this year.... That is 35 points free. And that is befoe you even count the amount of short fields they gave. 29 takeaways is 3rd most in the NFL... That factored into their scoring clear.

How you beat them is pretty clear to me.

Denver, Jax and Seattle already gave you the script. First is you limit turnovers to 1 or less (Seattle gave up for... but their D is legit too and frankly the got lucky). You limit their subpar run game so they HAVE to pass to do anything offensively. Then you do a good job against their passing game too.

Next will come the really hard part for us... You convert on your red zone chances... They will stop your offense a fair amount of the time... So when you do get the ball inside the 20 you can't settle for 3 often. Cause you can not just assume you will be down there 6 times. You may only have 4 shots inside the 30. You better make the most of them. This is what worries me the most about this game.

They may only have 3 or 4 really good chances to put points on that board. If that turns into 16 instead of 20 that could be a real problem. The Pats NEED to have some really good red zone plays ready to go... Some good misdirection, trickery, inventive designs. If they go in planning to just line up and execute... I think they are doing themselves a massive disservice.

 

[KCSVEN]

Just watched every play by the Houston defense last night. Below is the strategy I would put in.

-If you go Jumbo it's going to be hard to run but play action off jumbo will be huge. Jumbo puts 9 in the box, still tough to run on. But throwing from that could be huge.

-The defense is very simple. Rush 4 most of the time. If playing zone keep everything in front and attack. They are super-fast and super hard hitting. If in Man, got to have RB's chip, you will have deep chances. Rodgers had 4 plays he had a chances to hit a deep ball. Missed 2 of them, bad read on 1 and got pressure too quick on another but 4 possible long chunk passes were there. The Boutte TD Drake through last year will be available. If Pats can hit them they can get some big passes and avoid the red zone with long TD's.

-Basically, in the pass game: determine if man or zone. If zone dink and dunk, if man look for the WR 1 on 1 on the outside. Use play action in jumbo. RB's need to look for the cutback, Texans are fast and can over-pursue on some plays. OL needs to get to second level quick. Safety and LB are quick, getting thru the line is doable but the second level is where the running game will win or lose.
Misdirection, like Drake PA bootleg should work also. Texans VERY aggressive. Screens? They are too fast and unless in man not going to work. Obviously, no turnovers and put pressure on Stroud. He is not very accurate in general and totally loses it with pressure.

You got to hit some deep passes, good thing Drake is the best at that. If you do that, they go 100% zone where you can get underneath throws and move the chains and Drake is accurate at that. Drake may have a few run opportunities but doubt anywhere near what he got with Chargers. If They play a lot of zone they are fast and violent closing tacklers. Rather Drake takes the 3 yards and gets down in this one.

 

[Real fan 02]

there was one screen to rham in the second half of the wild card game that hit big... a few chip and release right over the middle catches as well that worked well... we need to be uptempo/quick in this game... slot wr could be key running the edelman route tree...

edit: based on what toofy said, maybe not screens then

Perfect points.. see this as a big game for Diggs, chism, pop underneath.. absolutely up tempo, check downs, not a game you want to live in trying to take to many deep shots.. Texans secondary are ball hawks.. as far as protecting double Will Anderson.. going to have to play alot of heavy personnel Mumford if he can go will be vital.. can't just allow Anderson and hunter both to wreck the game.. take away one..

 

[stcjones]

This game will come down to whether or not our offensive line can somehow stop their defensive front and linebackers…… and whether they can open lanes for the running game. I would expect to McDaniels to employ the dink and dunk, short quick passes and screens here as they will really have to get the ball out of Drake’s hands quickly against this defense. On the other side of the ball, I think our defense will do a good job against their offense… Nico Collins is their big threat and he’s in concussion protocol from what I heard. Pats didn’t have too much trouble stopping Vidal but Woody Marks and other RB will be tougher task and run game has been a weakness for our defense this year. Need Gonzales back for this game somehow because the secondary doesn’t seem to be the same without him… going to be a very low scoring game I think and a tough one for the Pats to win…… but the big variable is Stroud who is erratic and inconsistent and prone to turnovers. GO PATS!!!!!

 

[stcjones]

Pats win 27-13. Not worried, Pittsburgh was gassed at the end of the game. We capitalize on the mistakes Houston inevitably makes.

I hope you are right, but I don’t see us putting up 27 on that defense… I would be ecstatic if that score is right though

 

[denverpatsfan]

Will Stroud turn the ball over 3x again?
He didn't look good.
Bo Nix, who nobody here likes, beat this defense...

 

[Ring 6]

Texans have won every Game with that Defense.

No they have 5 losses

 

[stcjones]

Vrabel have to stress protecting the Football: we can't leave points on the football field. Andy B is going to key: could be one of those old School 13-10 Games.

That is what I am thinking is another low scoring battle with the defenses… Maybe 16-13 or something like you said…. it will all come down to our offensive line.

 

[Real fan 02]

I saw Anderson moves and stunts . If he tries to attack Wilson I don't think Wilson has any chance.

Screens were virtually useless . They always have a spy at both ends for the screens and kill it behind the line of scrimmage resulting in loss of yards

We might need to do a lot of outside runs to start off with and sprinkle in gap runs up the middle ocassionally while getting ball out to diggs and Henry. I expect diggs, Henry to have a big day and Chism to be x factor when going gets tough .

We need turnover based points . So beat the heck out of stroud.

Agreed. Houston gave Pittsburgh every opportunity to win the game committing TOs.. Rodgers just quit. If we can get some TOs from Houstons offense it will be huge.

Another thing here.. double/chip Anderson. He's the all pro.. want to make him less effective. As pape stated thrle quick game, hurry up offense will be huge. Our defense is playing with alot of confidence need it to continue..

Also we NEED GONZO. He should clear protocols this week?

Nico Collins may not play for Houston? C. DAVIS on Jayden Higgins scares the crap out of me.. if Gonzo can't go..

 

[stcjones]

I recall early in the Brady era that Charlie Weiss would sometime break these tough defenses with 5 WR quick passing attack to negate the rush. Brady made that work and it usually gassed the D-line pretty good to open up the run game late. Curious if McDaniels will ever break that out again.

Great post and you’re 100% right that’s exactly what they need to do is break out that 2001 to 2004 Charlie Weiss offense with the quick screens running back dump offs and short passes to get the ball out quick… McDaniels better be doing that!

 

[FCB02062]

Pittsburgh tried the quick short passing game last night and Houston was all over it. Houston's tackling is way too good. The Pats are going to have to run a version of their regular offense and they'll just have to chip, keep an extra guy in, and have Maye be accountable for a pass rusher.

 

[Real fan 02]

Will Stroud turn the ball over 3x again?
He didn't look good.
Bo Nix, who nobody here likes, beat this defense...

The difference between a quitter like AR last nite and a up and coming all pro in Drake is stark differences.. if we can turn over Houston and convert in the red area I love our chances.. we can't live trying to hit deep pass plays.. need to take the easy ones and wear down those rushers..

 

[stcjones]

I don’t remember seeing a single screen called by McDaniels. I expect that to change against Houston, very aggressive front that wants to get upfield. I wonder if Josh held back against LA to open it up vs Houston.

Good point… I haven’t re-watched but if that’s the case that would be alarming… As we are facing a similar defense except better and quicker… So he better be rolling out the short, passing game and screens this week and going forward

 

[UrbanCowboy]

Being in Houston, I've seen a lot of Texans, and it's not just the pass rush. The defense is no joke ... excellent all around. They keep it simple -- our guys can beat your guys, and they usually do. I'm glad we have McDaniels scheming -- we're gonna need it. The offense, of course, has been the opposite. Stroud was atrocious last night, but that is atypical. He's usually okay and can make a few nice throws. What scares me is last night was the first time they ran the ball with success. Not sure if that surprised pittsburgh, or that their bad O-Line is improving, but that was out of character. I think we win, but this is dogfight #2 with a meaner pitbull than the Chargers.