Phase One Of QB Search Is Over; On to Phase Two

[BaconGrundleCandy]

@BaconGrundleCandy
Do you agree with this comment?

Yea.
Lawrence & Fields are the only guys that graded out with 1st round value, for me. Lance, Jones & to an extent Wilson was never going to grade that high bc I have some risk mitigation built in to my scale and he just doesn't have the experience but tremendous upside. Wilson to a lesser extent but he only played one full season and has a few concerns.

Anyway yes, for me anyway, I only have two 1st on QB's (TL, JF) and 2 guys (Lance, Wilson) I be comfortable trading up for bc of their upside, age, skill set.

 

[Ring 6]

Yea.
Lawrence & Fields are the only guys that graded out with 1st round value, for me. Lance, Jones & to an extent Wilson was never going to grade that high bc I have some risk mitigation built in to my scale and he just doesn't have the experience but tremendous upside. Wilson to a lesser extent but he only played one full season and has a few concerns.

Anyway yes, for me anyway, I only have two 1st on QB's (TL, JF) and 2 guys (Lance, Wilson) I be comfortable trading up for bc of their upside, age, skill set.

Thanks, few question from that. Can you explain the last sentence? Trade up the where? Are you saying you would draft them in the first despite the grade due to potential? How do you factor in the reality that a QB graded 40th if all players probably won’t be available after 15 or 20? Meaning if the market has QBs picked higher than they grade how do you ever get a QB if you stick to grade?

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Thss as us, few question from that. Can you explain the last sentence? Trade up the where? Are you saying you would draft them in the first despite the grade due to potential? How do you factor in the reality that a QB graded 40th if all players probably won’t be available after 15 or 20? Meaning if the market has QBs picked higher than they grade how do you ever get a QB if you stick to grade?

QB's are just a different animal. While I don't add in points for the value of the position, it matters. And again I tried to put something in my scale so I don't have to worry about one hit wonders, most of the time. So a guy like Lance would never grade that high bc of limited experience/starts. And while projection is a big part of my process I can't get carried away with feelings or draft hype.

Also fwiw and to get as specific as possible, Lance & Wilson didn't miss by much. They were right there.

 

[Hyped]

Yea.
Lawrence & Fields are the only guys that graded out with 1st round value, for me. Lance, Jones & to an extent Wilson was never going to grade that high bc I have some risk mitigation built in to my scale and he just doesn't have the experience but tremendous upside. Wilson to a lesser extent but he only played one full season and has a few concerns.

Anyway yes, for me anyway, I only have two 1st on QB's (TL, JF) and 2 guys (Lance, Wilson) I be comfortable trading up for bc of their upside, age, skill set.

How are you giving Fields a 1st round grade when he doesn't have as much experience? (Only 2 years as a starter compared to Lawrence's 3 years) Is it because he has more experience than Jones, Lance, and Wilson?

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

How are you giving Fields a 1st round grade when he doesn't have as much experience? (Only 2 years as a starter compared to Lawrence's 3 years) Is it because he has more experience than Jones, Lance, and Wilson?

Good question.
Nope, I just think Fields is more ready, as high a ceiling as Lance and more than Wilson. Just think he's a little better rn with as high/higher ceiling. Better competition.

Fields just made it in the 1st while Lance & Wilson just missed.

 

[mgteich]

There are five QB's who will go in the first round in this draft, because of need and the usual hype. But from reading BCG and others who study players over many years and in depth, there are actually only one, two, or at the most, three, first round caliber QB's.

So?

What are "first round quality" caliber QB's.

Given the market, I would say that a first round quarterback is one that is expected to sit out his rookie year, and start sometime during his second year, hopefully at Game 1.

Fans think that first round quarterbacks should start, especially those drafted in the top half of round for them. Good for them. They aren't making the decisions. They don't need to have a quality quarterback starting in 2022.

The BOTTOM LINE is that 5 teams will draft their 2022 quarterback in the first round. The other 7 teams looking will wait until next year or 2023 or 2024. Of course, some ONE or TWO might be get lucky with a second or third rounder, OR NOT. Some will choose quarterbacks among their 2022 free agents.

I've made my preference clear. I want us to spend what it takes to draft our 2022 quarterback, who may start Game 1 or not. I would greatly prefer a better choice for veteran bridge than Cam, but that choice may have been already made. Certainly Bill has passed on quarterbacks that many here might have chosen. Maybe Bill knows best, and none would be much of an improvement is his first year with the patriots offense. And yes, we still could acquire an upgrade.

 

[mgteich]

Good question.
Nope, I just think Fields is more ready, as high a ceiling as Lance and more than Wilson. Just think he's a little better rn with as high/higher ceiling. Better competition.

Fields just made it in the 1st while Lance & Wilson just missed.

OK, I agree with the idea that only Lawrence and Fields are truly 1st round quarterbacks.

That being said, you know where the QB market is right now. Many teams need quarterbacks. How would YOU advise them? Would you really advise them not to draft anyone but Lawrence and Fields in the first round?

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

OK, I agree with the idea that only Lawrence and Fields are truly 1st round quarterbacks.

That being said, you know where the QB market is right now. Many teams need quarterbacks. How would YOU advise them? Would you really advise them not to draft anyone but Lawrence and Fields in the first round?

No of course not. Lawrence & Fields are clear cut QB1 & 2 imo, 1st round prospects. Lance and Wilson just missed out but I'd be comfortable taking either in round one. Lance is my QB3 & Wilson QB4. They just missed out. After that I'm waiting, trying to trade for one (Wilson) or trade into next year.

 

[skinnydog]

So, you are saying that Cam is likely to be our starter. Have the best off season ever, and then start Cam. How very sad.

That’s the way it looks right now

 

[BTTA]

So?

What are "first round quality" caliber QB's.

Given the market, I would say that a first round quarterback is one that is expected to sit out his rookie year, and start sometime during his second year, hopefully at Game 1.

Fans think that first round quarterbacks should start, especially those drafted in the top half of round for them. Good for them. They aren't making the decisions. They don't need to have a quality quarterback starting in 2022.

The BOTTOM LINE is that 5 teams will draft their 2022 quarterback in the first round. The other 7 teams looking will wait until next year or 2023 or 2024. Of course, some ONE or TWO might be get lucky with a second or third rounder, OR NOT. Some will choose quarterbacks among their 2022 free agents.

I've made my preference clear. I want us to spend what it takes to draft our 2022 quarterback, who may start Game 1 or not. I would greatly prefer a better choice for veteran bridge than Cam, but that choice may have been already made. Certainly Bill has passed on quarterbacks that many here might have chosen. Maybe Bill knows best, and none would be much of an improvement is his first year with the patriots offense. And yes, we still could acquire an upgrade.

The issue under discussion (in my post, and the posts I was responding to) wasn't about what the Pats should do. It was about viewing the likelihood of success through the lens of history. In years where a lot of teams need QB's, some of those that will be taken in the first round are actually second round, or lower, prospects, and the likelihood of their success can be measured that way.

 

[mgteich]

No of course not. Lawrence & Fields are clear cut QB1 & 2 imo, 1st round prospects. Lance and Wilson just missed out but I'd be comfortable taking either in round one. Lance is my QB3 & Wilson QB4. They just missed out. After that I'm waiting, trying to trade for one (Wilson) or trade into next yea

A dozen teams are interested in quarterbacks. Should all 5 be drafted in the top 10? top15

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

A dozen teams are interested in quarterbacks. Should all 5 be drafted in the top 10? top15

No. The only guys that have business being drafted top 10-15 are Lawrence, Fields, Lance & Wilson. That's it, that's the list.

I'm not taking Jones round one. Too much of a reach of me.