Pats Off-season Review (Pre-Free Agency Edition) - Defense

[Clonamery]

Was that JAG Bruschi starting regularly in 2000? I can't remember but I believe people have mentioned his replacing Brian Cox in 2001...

Are you telling us not to throw the baby (or TBC) out with the bath water?

 

[The_Dragon]

Good thread. Some very interesting takes on the defensive outlook. I enjoyed the initial post DaBruinz.

Just a few thoughts I've had since the Colts game:


I'd wonder just how much work is really needed on defense. Does it really need the overhaul that is being suggested in some places?

- I'd agree that the ILB's need to have some pass-covering skills added against good TE's.
- I'd agree that if Samuel leaves an upgrade may be needed at CB. I've said before that I think Hobbs will improve again next year. I, personally, still don't see him as a #1 CB. I'll be very happy to be proven wrong on that.
- I'd be all for improving any area of the defense if that can be done in a way that fits the Pats strategy.

I think a lot of people have over-reacted to the loss against the Colts. A defense that was:
- hit by the flu
- that spent extended periods of time on the field
- that had played a hugely tough game the weak before across country.
- that lost many of it's starters during the game
- that was up against a top class offense

gave up a lot of points in the 2nd half. Most of these circumstances were exceptional. Just the week before the same defense had shut down another of the most potent attacks (if not the most potent) in the SD game. These circumstances will not prevail in the vast majority of games.

A lot of people are enamoured with the thought of bringing in some FA's and some draft picks, thereby solving the 'problem'. I'd like to see us do something in FA and in the draft but I don't believe that a radical overhaul is needed.

Can anyone say that the Pats defense was in trouble for an extended period of time this year i.e. a run of games? Of course there were games they didn't play well - IMO over a 16 game season this is going to happen. But they were never dominated for long stretches. This D does not need major work IMO.

 

[cstjohn17]

I'd wonder just how much work is really needed on defense. Does it really need the overhaul that is being suggested in some places?

As a whole the defense really played great in 2006. The roster will need some reinforcements to play at the same level in 2007. Specifically at ILB and at CB if Samuel leaves.

Looking a little deeper I think it does need some improvement, not an overhaul but some additions to fortify the group.

I used two types of analysis (SEE DATA BELOW FOR DETAILS)
1) Key defensive statistics - Rushing YPG and Point Against.
---- a) Rushing - After week 9 the defense allowed 100 YPG rushing in 8 out of last 10 games
---- b) YPG - Not as bad but still trended in the wrong direction, after week 13 allowed 20 PPG in 6 out the last 8 games. Only allowed one game over 20 before week 13.
2) Eyeball test & Roster analysis
---- a) The play at LB really slipped when Seau went down. Vrabel, Colvin and Bruschi all switched positions. You can make a case that all the movement made the Patriots worse at every LB position.
---- b) Bruschi was not a play maker in 2006.
---- c) Only 6 Signed LBs (assumes ERFAs and tendered) - Colvin, Vrabel, Bruschi, Woods, Mays, Alexander. 6 players signed leaves a need to fill 3-4 spots just to complete the roster. 1 must be starting caliber at ILB and 1-2 must be high level backups (TBC level or higher).
---- d) CB - Samuel - Stays secondary is ok, if he leaves there is a big void.

 

[PATRIOTS-80]

Sorry, but there is NO WAY in hell that TBC is worth even HALF of Jarvis Green. I respect you and BOR, but lets get serious. TBC is a 4 year veteran who, while he hasn't started, has seen time in games. TBC is a JAG and you don't pay a JAG the type of money that Jarvis Green got.

IMHO, TBC isn't worth bringing back.

He's been a JAG for 3 years. Last year, he got sacks at a unbelievable rate (5.5 sacks). Even just as a 3rd down passrush specialist, that's worth something. He's always been good at getting sacks. Sure he needs work at setting the edge, but he's only 26 and I can think of a lot worse than TBC. Green has 7.5 sacks. Anytime you got a young pass-rush specialist who has the speed to get to the QB, I think that's worth Hochstein $$$$$.

 

[cstjohn17]

He's been a JAG for 3 years. Last year, he got sacks at a unbelievable rate (5.5 sacks). Even just as a 3rd down passrush specialist, that's worth something. He's always been good at getting sacks. Sure he needs work at setting the edge, but he's only 26 and I can think of a lot worse than TBC. Green has 7.5 sacks. Anytime you got a young pass-rush specialist who has the speed to get to the QB, I think that's worth Hochstein $$$$$.

This is a really good question... I have never been part of the TBC for HOF committee but he is solid backup OLB, not many teams have a better backup at OLB. He can also play special teams and add a sack every now and then.

Jarvis Green money (5 years, $18M, 5.5 bonus). Green signed in 2005 and still had a year before free agency. The market has changed, with the new CBA I could see TBC getting something similar, 5 years, $14M, $5 bonus or a little less than 3 per year. I was going to say yes, sign him but for $3m per year for a backup with limited upside sounds a little high.

As of today I say No, don't sign TBC for Jarvis Green money. I may change my mind after seeing some of the upcoming FA contracts..

-----------------------------
NFL PA
http://www.nflpa.com/Resources/ActivePlayerSearch.aspx?id=33102
Salary History

2008 2000000.00
2009 2500000.00
2005 455000.00
2006 585000.00
2007 1500000.00

Old article from Globe

"The Patriots have agreed to extend Jarvis Green's contract, giving him $5.5 million in bonuses the next two years, including a $3.5 million signing bonus, on a five-year deal that could be worth $18 million."
http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/articles/2005/07/30/holding_the_line/

 

[everlong]

I think TBC is a good specialist just like Green. If they can get a 4/14 type of deal done I'm all for it but I think a team like the Jets is going to drive the price up to 4/20 and he's just not worth that.

 

[DaBruinz]

Was that JAG Bruschi starting regularly in 2000? I can't remember but I believe people have mentioned his replacing Brian Cox in 2001...

BOR -
I expect more from you than this garbage, BOR. You just majorly insulted Bruschi by even attempting to compare TBC to him.

Bruschi started at OLB in the Pats 4-3 after Todd Collins went down in 1998. Bruschi started 14 games in 1999, missing 2 to injury. Bruschi started all 16 games at WLB in 2000. In 2001, he was the starting OLB and then moved to ILB.

http://www.patriots.com/team/index.cfm?ac=playerbio&bio=153

So, please, TBC isn't not even in the same league as Bruschi when it comes to the type of player they are.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

BOR -
I expect more from you than this garbage, BOR. You just majorly insulted Bruschi by even attempting to compare TBC to him.

Bruschi started at OLB in the Pats 4-3 after Todd Collins went down in 1998. Bruschi started 14 games in 1999, missing 2 to injury. Bruschi started all 16 games at WLB in 2000. In 2001, he was the starting OLB and then moved to ILB.

http://www.patriots.com/team/index.cfm?ac=playerbio&bio=153

So, please, TBC isn't not even in the same league as Bruschi when it comes to the type of player they are.

That's what happens when I don't read the bio. That said, I still have a much higher sense of TBC's worth than most around here.

 

[PonyExpress]

That's what happens when I don't read the bio. That said, I still have a much higher sense of TBC's worth than most around here.

BOR,
Do you want TBC back as a starter, or a 3rd OLB behind Vrabel and Colvin? If as a starter, do you see him moving ahead of Vrabel on the depth chart, or Vrabel staying at ILB in '07? If you see TBC as a back-up, do you feel TBC as a known quantity is better value at 4 years/14 million than a 1st rd pick at 5/8? Just curious how you want things to shake out.

 

[mgteich]

I agree that Banta-Cain would be avaluable member of the team, as is Green. I believe that the jets are willing to pay more than we are.

I think TBC is a good specialist just like Green. If they can get a 4/14 type of deal done I'm all for it but I think a team like the Jets is going to drive the price up to 4/20 and he's just not worth that.

 

[PonyExpress]

bump......

 

[Heck67]

I hope the Pats hold on to TBC, I believe that by the end of the season his play had improved greatly. I also think that in BB's defense that the linebacker position is one of the more difficult to grasp, that said I think TBC was hitting the learnig curve this year and really accelerated as the year progressed

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

BOR,
Do you want TBC back as a starter, or a 3rd OLB behind Vrabel and Colvin? If as a starter, do you see him moving ahead of Vrabel on the depth chart, or Vrabel staying at ILB in '07? If you see TBC as a back-up, do you feel TBC as a known quantity is better value at 4 years/14 million than a 1st rd pick at 5/8? Just curious how you want things to shake out.

Our current 2007 LB roster: Bruschi, Vrabel, Colvin, Alexander, Woods, Mays.

That's a pretty thin roster to start Free Agency. Prior to Free Agency starting the Pats have a shot at re-signing TBC, Seau, Gardner, Izzo, Davis. Gardner is coming off an injury, he had looked hopeful as depth at ILB, but that knee was pretty messed up - he's a big question mark if he's brought back. Seau would be fine, but he's a stop-gap. The Izzo and Davis fan clubs can rant if they come back to help Special Teams.

TBC started 5 regular season (1st and 4 of the last 5) and 2 post season game, during end of season/post-season period he didn't start two games, Miami in Miami and Indy in Indy, both games were the focus was pass defense. I'm not convincing any of the people who complain about his run defense, but I think your all nuts. That point made, he did a solid job in all three phases of OLB play and the available options in Free Agency are thin and expensive. Whether TBC starts or rotates in with Rosey and Vrabes or starts again because Vrabes is back inside doesn't worry me, I want him back because depth and youth at LB are in short supply and he is at worst adequate as a starter.

EDIT: What drugs do people need to take to believe a first round draft pick is going to start at LB for the Pats?

 

[unoriginal]

What drugs do people need to take to believe a first round draft pick is going to start at LB for the Pats?

Ones we should all be on.

Pretty horsies.