Pats/Jags Game Plan, Breakdown ...

[Mack Herron]

 

[TomPatriot]

But it makes no sense that they are better at defending 3 wide than 2 wide.

They are. They have more trouble with TEs and RBs. If the probability is you won’t run or screen the Jags D is much better. The Pats offense is versatile - they can run or pass out of any set very well, but are really good at 21, 12 and 22. That’s just one reason I’m confident.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

But it makes no sense that they are better at defending 3 wide than 2 wide.

Why wouldn't it make sense?

Different teams, in different alignments, esp when forced. Are better at defending certain things.

 

[Kontradiction]

I think we go lewis, Gronk and 3 wide.
If they actuslly put 6 dbs on the field Lewis runs crazy.
22 makes sense imo only if you want to have a TE stay in to pass block.

That’s why I think we’ll see a heavy dose of 22 personnel to start off with. I think they’ll run out of it at first, soften them up, then look to hit some play action paydirt out of it. Anybody that has watched this defense knows they struggle with defending two TEs and heavier formations. I think we’ll see some 11 personnel as the game goes on but not right away.

 

[Kontradiction]

As a lot of us already read in another thread I doubt the pats use a ton of 2-3 Wr sets, Jags are excellent against those formations.

I think they will later on in the game when the snap count is beginning to take its toll, but coming out in that from the gates is just asking for a couple of three and outs to start the game.

 

[PP2]

But it makes no sense that they are better at defending 3 wide than 2 wide.

The stats prove it!

Their defensive efficiency really plunges when they defend 12 (or heavier) as opposed to 11 personnel. Read below:

That difference is ASTONISHING. Especially considering that these are the exact same teams, with the same quarterbacks, in the exact same games. The difference is simply the personnel grouping they trot onto the field:

• 3+ WRs: 39% success rate, 5.0 YPA, 59 rating
• 2 WRs or less: 55% success rate, 9.6 YPA, 99 rating

From:

Sharp Football Analysis

 

[Triumph]

Its going to be a close hard fought chippy game.

Other than pass defense, the Jags are not really great at anything, but are just good enough at virtually everything. The game is still about who is more physical. Who hits harder. Blocking and tackling.

There was a team long ago built from parts and pieces that other teams gave up on. Nobody respected them and they used that lack of respect as fuel to win and prove doubters wrong. Nobody gave them a chance even when they made it all the way to the game in February.

That team was the 2001 NE Patriots.

 

[Uptown]

Another insightful article regarding weaknesses in JAC D.

We have to be in 3rd & manageable as much as possible. Lewis, Da Burkmeister, Sweet Feet,
Danny & Gronk should EAT.

Jags’ D:


“Football Outsider’s data supports PFF’s grading: Jacksonville ranks 31st defending runs to the left edge and 26th on runs to the right edge. Sharp Football Stats’ directional running productiondata also supports PFF’s conclusion. They show Jacksonville allowing five yards per carry on the edges, with 17% of all edge runs being big plays (10 yards or longer).”

https://www.patspulpit.com/2018/1/2...ville-jaguars-defensive-weaknesses-gronkowski

 

[Uptown]

Tom Brady Should Carve up Jaguars Pass Defense As Long As His Hand is Okay - The Jeff Howe Show

 

[Vatahala]

Finally a TV show (NFL Pickem) that did a segment on how the Patriots pass rush might give problems to Bortles.

They showed a great play by M Flowers faking dropping back in coverage as the tackle ignores him and then Flowers rushes and flushes BB out of the picket which led to a sack.

They gave praise to BB and Company for finding ways to exploit the opposition.

 

[Uptown]

Jaguars DC: Don't look for Jalen Ramsey against Rob Gronkowski

 

[Uptown]

Not sure JAX can play at the same level in back-to-back weeks.

As per RJ Bell of pregame.com; since 1980, playoff teams that score 40 points or more in a single game are 5-25 against the spread the very next game. Doesn’t bode well for JAX.

Also, when a playoff underdog is -2 or more in TO margin, they less than a 10% chance of victory.

The Herd with Colin Cowherd

 

[Uptown]

Film Review: CB Stephon Gilmore’s growth turned the Patriots defense around and his improvement was evident against the Titans

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

Robert Mays with more breakdown of the Sharp article and the 11 personnel vs. heavier packages:

Tom Brady vs. the Jags’ Pass Defense Is a Dream Matchup for Football Nerds

Regards,
Chris

 

[Ring 6]

Why wouldn't it make sense?

Different teams, in different alignments, esp when forced. Are better at defending certain things.

So you are saying they would be better, same down and distance defending the pass against
Gronk Lewis cooks hogan amendola than
Gronk Lewis cooks hogan allen?

That make no sense. The stat is not apples to apples, regarding opponent and down and distance and situation

 

[Ring 6]

They are. They have more trouble with TEs and RBs. If the probability is you won’t run or screen the Jags D is much better. The Pats offense is versatile - they can run or pass out of any set very well, but are really good at 21, 12 and 22. That’s just one reason I’m confident.

Im saying it’s down a distance and opponent related.

 

[Tb12goesinya]

I think a decent strategy would be to take a deep shot early in the game to Cooks or Dorsett and then use Cooks frequently as a clear out decoy. If we can remind that young hungry defense how they got beat deep last week, it could lossen things up just enough to not allow them to build confidence early.

 

[Ring 6]

The stats prove it!

Their defensive efficiency really plunges when they defend 12 (or heavier) as opposed to 11 personnel. Read below:



From:

Sharp Football Analysis

No they don’t. Maybe I’m not being clear.
They are better based upon firm and distance (and possibly affected by opponent). In other words if it’s 3rs and 8 they won’t defend 3 wr better than 2 wr and 2 TE. If you throw on running downs or throw from a running formation on neutral downs to will have more success than throwing in throwing downs and MAY POSSIBLY have more success than throwing out of a passing formation on neutral downs but these stats don’t guvechay comparison/answer

The article also isn’t defining “success rate” which could skew the d/d factor even further nor do I see (but I didn’t read it fully) and breakdown of d/d or sample size especially compared to other defenses. It also isn’t clear to me if they are saying success rate in all plays it only pass plays but again it could be in there and I missed it.

This seems like a big misuse of stats to me.
I can see that Jacksonville is a good defense in obvious passing situations. I can’t see how much that is the basis of these numbers, and whether it’s all down and distance related and personnel grouping is coincidental.

 

[jimnance]

No they don’t. Maybe I’m not being clear.
They are better based upon firm and distance (and possibly affected by opponent). In other words if it’s 3rs and 8 they won’t defend 3 wr better than 2 wr and 2 TE. If you throw on running downs or throw from a running formation on neutral downs to will have more success than throwing in throwing downs and MAY POSSIBLY have more success than throwing out of a passing formation on neutral downs but these stats don’t guvechay comparison/answer

The article also isn’t defining “success rate” which could skew the d/d factor even further nor do I see (but I didn’t read it fully) and breakdown of d/d or sample size especially compared to other defenses. It also isn’t clear to me if they are saying success rate in all plays it only pass plays but again it could be in there and I missed it.

This seems like a big misuse of stats to me.
I can see that Jacksonville is a good defense in obvious passing situations. I can’t see how much that is the basis of these numbers, and whether it’s all down and distance related and personnel grouping is coincidental.

Andy, I agree there're a lot of variables to consider to get as much of an apples to apples comparison as possible, but one factor you're overlooking is that the Patriots are, I believe, more effective running AND passing out of 21 and 12 than they are with 11.
So, how do ya like THEM apples?

 

[goheels22002]

Nice podcast by Rich Hill from PatsPulpit in this link with the guys in Jacksonville. Jags guys are hoping the Pats aren't as good as we know they are:

What to expect from the Patriots defense