Pats/Jags Game Plan, Breakdown ...

[Ring 6]

Andy, I agree there're a lot of variables to consider to get as much of an apples to apples comparison as possible, but one factor you're overlooking is that the Patriots are, I believe, more effective running AND passing out of 21 and 12 than they are with 11.
So, how do ya like THEM apples?

Andy, I agree there're a lot of variables to consider to get as much of an apples to apples comparison as possible, but one factor you're overlooking is that the Patriots are, I believe, more effective running AND passing out of 21 and 12 than they are with 11.
So, how do ya like THEM apples?

do you have numbers to support that?
But again it’s down and distance related.
If you run 12 or 21 on 1 st down and 2nd and short or medium and 11 in obvious passing downs it’s not an even comparison.

These stats suggest in 3rd and 12 the patriots should have 2 Tes on the field and that gives them a better chance of converting. That’s just wrong.

Personally looking at the opponent my game plan would be 11 on first down which will cause them to go very small and then go run heavy no huddle mixing in passes. Their stats defending 11 on 3rd and long have nothing to do with how they will play against that.

 

[jimnance]

do you have numbers to support that?
But again it’s down and distance related.
If you run 12 or 21 on 1 st down and 2nd and short or medium and 11 in obvious passing downs it’s not an even comparison.

These stats suggest in 3rd and 12 the patriots should have 2 Tes on the field and that gives them a better chance of converting. That’s just wrong.

Personally looking at the opponent my game plan would be 11 on first down which will cause them to go very small and then go run heavy no huddle mixing in passes. Their stats defending 11 on 3rd and long have nothing to do with how they will play against that.

Yeah, it was in one of the posts in this thread,had a link to an analysis showing the numbers.
And while you need to carefully sort and refine both the jags d and Pats o #'s with 11 vs. 21 and 12, it's also a fact that the success rates of different NFL D's are very different with the groupings.
So while the jags d had great success vs. 11, a lot of other teams didn't and had much better success vs. other groupings.
Like you, I don't like generalized stats because they're fairly meaningless without context. But I think there's a little something to both the Pats o success and jags d failure with those groupings.
That being said,we have a huge advantage both in coaching and having a QB who's been here for 18 years- the Pats are the most multiple and varied o and d in the NFL. They have to be a preparation nightmare for other teams.

 

[Ring 6]

Yeah, it was in one of the posts in this thread,had a link to an analysis showing the numbers.
And while you need to carefully sort and refine both the jags d and Pats o #'s with 11 vs. 21 and 12, it's also a fact that the success rates of different NFL D's are very different with the groupings.
So while the jags d had great success vs. 11, a lot of other teams didn't and had much better success vs. other groupings.
Like you, I don't like generalized stats because they're fairly meaningless without context. But I think there's a little something to both the Pats o success and jags d failure with those groupings.
That being said,we have a huge advantage both in coaching and having a QB who's been here for 18 years- the Pats are the most multiple and varied o and d in the NFL. They have to be a preparation nightmare for other teams.

I skimmed article and didn’t find that info.

I think when I look at the Jacksonville defense if you play 12 or 21 and get their base on the forks in neutral downs there are areas to attack. I think if, as some teams do, you use 11 in passing situations you play into their hands, not with formation but with down and distance. You aren’t going to do better in that d/d with 12 or 21 it just makes no sense.
So it is very possible that the stats aren’t reprraentative if personell grouping but if down and distance.

If opponents aren’t spreading them out in 11 on first and 10 but onlyon 2nd and 3rd and long the stat tells me they play good pass defense when it’s a passing down and formation is irrelevant.

However the reason to go 11 on early downs is to make them small (and they get very small up front) to open up the run game. That stat analysis didn’t address that at all.

 

[Deus Irae]

Why wouldn't it make sense?

Different teams, in different alignments, esp when forced. Are better at defending certain things.

While there's always the issue of application to the individual team a/k/a context (and that's what coaches are for), there's nothing wrong with the data, or the generalized analysis.

 

[Uptown]

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Kick yourself in the **** for me lol

 

[NEPats1]

FWIW

Playoff intel: Insiders dish on stopping Gronk, containing Keenum, more

New England Patriots

On the options when covering Rob Gronkowski/Tom Brady combo: "What's the answer for the tight end? That's always the first question. Because when you double him and they spread you out and start throwing to backs, that's the issue. You can try some double-teams on Gronk but can't just stay in the same coverage -- mix it up with man, zone, pressure. Jalen Ramsey is capable of helping out on Gronk, but the problem is they move Gronk around so much. That could disrupt what Jacksonville wants to do with their corners as a whole. I'd be shocked if they put Ramsey on [him] a bunch. They might disguise looks so he ends up on Ramsey's side. But you'll probably see a lot of Johnathan Cyprien on him, maybe one of their linebackers because they are athletic enough."

On attacking Brady before and after the snap: "A good four-man rush is key, because if you have to rely on blitzing, Brady is so good at combating that. What's helped him age so well is the fastest release in the NFL is still there in New England. The ball comes out so fast. Underneath coverage, rotations, identifying things pre-snap -- the awareness is still off the charts. And their running backs are like receivers, so that takes some of the pressure off the outside. Their outside receivers maybe aren't as deadly as in the past, but they don't need them to be because of their balance with Gronk, the tailbacks and [Danny] Amendola, who is a good slot receiver."

On Patriots defense's strengths and weaknesses: "They put you in a ton of one-on-one matchups, be it up front because they play a lot of triple fronts or the secondary where they will match up and play man. You must win your one-on-ones against them. They will also try to take away your first option. Your supporting cast is so crucial against them. Have to win with your second or third option. Pass rush hasn't been a strength. I know they've gotten to the QB a bunch, but most of their sacks (Sunday vs. Tennessee) were in the second half with the game out of reach. They have a number of guys who play hard and are well-coached in their front seven, but as a group is not elite by any means."

Jacksonville Jaguars

On the good and bad of Blake Bortles: "If you go back and look at some of his throws during the season, his ability to throw the deep ball and his accuracy on that throw and his mobility are things that translate to cold-weather situations. You need to be able to run the ball. They are so much better with the lead because their defense helps them get through games. Leonard Fournette has shown he can control the game, which takes a lot of pressure off their passing game. Bortles won't beat you with his legs, but he can keep drives alive. You've got to make him make a lot of throws. Get him in 25-plus range, put the game on him. If you look at what he's done in the fourth quarter when they are behind, that hasn't been his strength, bringing them from behind, especially when there's more pressure. Make him be the hero."

On the dangers of Fournette and controlling Jacksonville's play-action: "You have to determine, 'What are you going to take away?' Can't take away everything. I'd be surprised if New England doesn't take the same approach and say, 'If you’re going to beat us, beat us throwing the ball.' So you've got to get people around the line of scrimmage and tackle and pursue him [Fournette] because he's a yards-after-contact runner. New England is a heavy man team, so when you're playing man, play-action is not as effective. People have their eyes on their coverages. If you're playing zone, and linebackers are getting to the line of scrimmage and then try to get back to their zone, their drops can become play-action liabilities. But in this game, when the Jags fake the handoff to Leonard and try to throw behind the secondary, Malcolm [Butler] and Stephon [Gilmore] are locked into their coverage. Can they win in their coverage? ... [Allen] Hurns is a decent receiver, Marcedes Lewis is capable. No. 84 [Keelan Cole], when we studied him, we saw big plays, second in yards per catch, without question their best deep threat."

On the Jaguars' best chances to pressure Brady: "The Jaguars don't blitz a whole lot, which might be best because of the quarterback they are facing. So if they stay true to their identity, they absolutely must get front-four pressure on him. And they usually do. They are absolutely loaded here. That one guy, I can't say his name, but he's a monster [Yannick Ngakoue]. And they have a ton of guys they can throw at you. Getting pressure up the middle is best. Give him too much time or too much of one particular look and it's over. You have to mix it up. Jacksonville has that model where they have five or six really good linemen, which keeps them fresh. The Jaguars' linebackers are really athletic sideline to sideline. Against a cover-3 like they run, you can try to work the quick passing game against them, which is Brady's specialty. How quickly do the linebackers react?"

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

FWIW

Playoff intel: Insiders dish on stopping Gronk, containing Keenum, more

Good stuff.

I def believe they mix it up on 87 and try to disrupt more than stop.

I noted on the first page. When Bortles throws 30+ his comp% goes from low 60's to 40%!

If we can get him to throw 15-20+ in the 1st half we're in great shape I believe.

Stopping the run is huge. Jax line isn't nearly as good or nuanced for that matter. 27 can get skinny put he usually needs a hole. Def someone you want to make stop his feet. Once that happens the play is dead.

 

[Uptown]

 

[Oswlek]

I really like the way NE matches up against Jax's offense. For all the furor over Bortles' recent scrambling, no one ever mentions that those yards were almost entirely due to undisciplined pass rushers losing contain. If there's one thing NE knows how to do (at least since cutting bait on Marsh), it's keeping a guy in the pocket. Merely maintaining gap integrity makes all the talk of spies unnecessary.

NE has proven capable of stopping a run game if that's their area of emphasis, so I doubt Jax gets within shouting distance of 100 yards, barring another defense fueled fast start. Unlike Pitt, the Patriots have a secondary that can succeed as a stand-alone entity, so they can be competitive even with a front preoccupied with run fits and gap integrity.

IMO, so long as no drive starts on the wrong side of the 50, it will be a challenge for Jax to crack 20.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Great example of how important communication, both verbal and nonverbal.

Defenses will use pattern matching, zone/man mix among many other things to combat today's offenses.

Communication is key when switching and staying ahead.

 

[Tb12goesinya]

Linebacker responsibility is key to the game. A lot of zone, make Bortles beat you outside the numbers. Stack for the run then TAKE AWAY CROSSING ROUTES. If Bortles can consistently beat us outside the numbers intermediatly then we gradually put more cover zero responsibilities on our CBs.

We already know how we lose. They dominate time of possesseion and keep their defense coc*y

If we play our best game we matchup good. Maintain second level responsibilities and we’ll make them open an uncomfortable part of their play book.

Offensively, switch up personnel. Give them a lot of different looks early to overwhelm them. They will thrive if they sense any stagnation. Deep shots and deep decoys, screens, and heavy personal will all open us up for the intermediate in later stages. Get it out quick to start or max protect deep shots. Lossen them up before we introduce our intermediate game.

Even if Tom Coughlin wears eye black and a muscle Tee we still have a distinct experience edge which we must take advantage of

 

[Mack Herron]

 

[jimnance]

I skimmed article and didn’t find that info.
/QUOTE]


It's not the same article as the jags d one.
Different post, different article from a different source. Pretty sure the posy came somewhere after the jags article.
I'm not gonna hunt for it. I'm sure plenty of posters saw it, maybe someone else recalls it. It was similar to the jags one, dont believe it had down and distance,just the raw stat that Pats have had greater success runnning and passing from 12 and 21 than from 11 this year. Pretty straightforward. That jives with what my eyes have seen.

 

[jimnance]

Lol somehow my post ended up inside your quote.

 

[Ring 6]

Lol somehow my post ended up inside your quote.

I do that all the time. I you hit edit and check you quote and /quote and brackets it will fix it.

 

[Ring 6]

Running down to cover a kick is probably the single most job requiring toughness in the game now that lead FB out of the I 400 times a season is no longer a real job

 

[Mack Herron]

However, here is the secret about wide receivers when facing the Jaguars pass defense: less is more.

When these same offenses lined up in 12, 21, 22 or any grouping with no more than 2 WRs on the field, the Jaguars pass defense allowed a 55% success rate, 9.6 YPA and a 99 passer rating.

Sharp Football Analysis

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

49ers game is the game we'll look at a few times.

 

[Uptown]

Patriots vs Jaguars: Trick to beating Jacksonville is to keep their run defense on the field