Pats D still Number 2 in AFC points against

[Ring 6]

Please read my posts instead of trying to have the last word. You are being childish, saying 'you're wrong' every time I'm bringing a proven fact. It reminds me of a Presidential debate, but let's leave that for the Political forum.

You are not bringing proven facts, and I have not said 'you are wrong' but given detailed explanations why.
Passer rating is a made up formula. I have shown examples of its flaws. It is absolutely not causal, and differential is not a judgment of defense which is what this thread is about.
A defense that allows fewer points will win more than a defense that allows more points but a lower passer rating.
Trying to apply passer rating equally to from 1956 to 2016 is ridiculous, because the game has changed. What has not changed is the scoreboard.
What you have found is a formula that was derived in a way that winning results in an advantage in that formula. It does not mean it is more predictive of winning that who scores more points.

This is football, not statistics class, and the game is won on the field by gameplans, matchups, individual battles, and execution.

So I'm repeating myself again: I have never said this defense is bad. Never said this defense is great. Never said this team shouldn't be 9-2. I have not even tried to predict the results of games to come.

I would not be surprised that I have you mixed up with the other guy in this thread spewing similar things.

I said that the current efficiency numbers of this defense are not good, and no Super Bowl winner have been able to win it all despite such mediocre defensive efficiency numbers. Because that's the goal, right ? Win the Super Bowl ?

Once again, you put the cart before the horse. Whatever you want to consider 'efficiency numbers' they do not decide football games, but are an effect, not a cause.

I have shown the best tool to predict a Super Bowl winner. No other statistic model comes close to what the differential passer rating has predicted in the last 70 years. You have chosen to ignore this argument for some OBVIOUS reasons. That's your right, even though you couldn't come up with anything better. Doesn't make my argument less valid because of your idea of what makes a defense great.

Fixed that for you

That being said, using this model, the Pats are still looking good. They are looking good because the offense has been amazing so far. And the question that I dare to ask is : what if the offense cannot attain this level of greatness in a given playoff game ? Could the defense overcome that ? And, in my opinion, they can't.

The defense has allowed 17 points or less in 7 of the last 8 (discounting the backups scoring vs backups with 30 seconds left in a 24 point game vs Buff) games. THAT is what gets you a win when the offense has a bad day. You don't advance in the playoffs by petitioning the league that analytics say you should have won.
There are no analytics that measure matchups, game plan and making plays with the game on the line.
That is what determines a champion, not statistics, and there are not statistics that are going to answer that for you.

As far as the actual point of this thread, the Patriot defense is getting the job done by keeping points of the board, and the underlying statistics of how they are doing it do not change the scoreboard.

 

[Ring 6]

So you don't think this stat apply to the Pats, because of their 'chameleon' defense ?

In the Belichick years, 5 of their top 7 years in differential passer rating resulted in a Super Bowl berth. On the other end, 3 of the worst 5 years in differential passer rating were years we didn't make the playoffs.

There's an obvious pattern, even for the Pats.

2016 looks good so far (5th best year in the Belichick era), but in this model the offense is carrying much of the weight.

And points allowed ranking is an even closer correlation to success.
But, we know that because when you score points and don't allow them you are successful.
Being successful makes you also look good in BS statistics that have no causation.

 

[deroc5050]

Please read my posts instead of trying to have the last word. You are being childish, saying 'you're wrong' every time I'm bringing a proven fact. It reminds me of a Presidential debate, but let's leave that for the Political forum.

So I'm repeating myself again: I have never said this defense is bad. Never said this defense is great. Never said this team shouldn't be 9-2. I have not even tried to predict the results of games to come.

I said that the current efficiency numbers of this defense are not good, and no Super Bowl winner have been able to win it all despite such mediocre defensive efficiency numbers. Because that's the goal, right ? Win the Super Bowl ?

I have shown the best tool to predict a Super Bowl winner. No other statistic model comes close to what the differential passer rating has predicted in the last 70 years. You have chosen to ignore this argument for some obtuse reasons. That's your right, even though you couldn't come up with anything better. Doesn't make my argument less valid because of your idea of what makes a defense great.

That being said, using this model, the Pats are still looking good. They are looking good because the offense has been amazing so far. And the question that I dare to ask is : what if the offense cannot attain this level of greatness in a given playoff game ? Could the defense overcome that ? And, in my opinion, they can't.

I agree with your posts for the most part. Throwing stats out the window, my main concern is the competition they have faced. Now without Gronk our offense is going to slow down a bit and this PPG defense hopefully steps up. The defense is going to need to get stops now. We can't depend on this offense putting up 30 points every game.

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

I agree with your posts for the most part. Throwing stats out the window, my main concern is the competition they have faced. Now without Gronk our offense is going to slow down a bit and this PPG defense hopefully steps up. The defense is going to need to get stops now. We can't depend on this offense putting up 30 points every game.

I think they will have to run the football a little more on first and second down now. Try and be balance.

 

[Ring 6]

I agree with your posts for the most part. Throwing stats out the window, my main concern is the competition they have faced. Now without Gronk our offense is going to slow down a bit and this PPG defense hopefully steps up. The defense is going to need to get stops now. We can't depend on this offense putting up 30 points every game.

The defense has been getting plenty of stops.
The offense has only needed to score 18 or less in 7 of the last 8. Not sure where you get that they need to score 30 every game. But you don't seem to be too worried about facts.

 

[deroc5050]

The defense has been getting plenty of stops.
The offense has only needed to score 18 or less in 7 of the last 8. Not sure where you get that they need to score 30 every game. But you don't seem to be too worried about facts.

lol I said we cant depend on the offense scoring 30 points a game.. Gronk is out it won't be easy to score 30+ points. It also means the Pats will most likely be punting the ball more and that means the defense is going to have to MAKE MORE STOPS. Is that hard to understand?

 

[Ring 6]

lol I said we cant depend on the offense scoring 30 points a game.. Gronk is out it won't be easy to score 30+ points. It also means the Pats will most likely be punting the ball more and that means the defense is going to have to MAKE MORE STOPS. Is that hard to understand?

There is no reason to believe the offense needs to score 30 every game.
Gronk has really only played 5 games this year so the defense has dealt with 6 games without him and 4 without Brady.

 

[deroc5050]

There is no reason to believe the offense needs to score 30 every game.
Gronk has really only played 5 games this year so the defense has dealt with 6 games without him and 4 without Brady.

I know because we only need to score 18 points to win because the Pats defense only gives up 17 PPG. I like nail biters.

 

[Bruins29]

. I like nail biters.

You like complaining more

 

[deroc5050]

You like complaining more

We just lost 1 of the best players in the NFL for the season. Its not all rainbows and puppy dogs.

 

[Bruins29]

We just lost 1 of the best players in the NFL for the season. Its not all rainbows and puppy dogs.

Yeah I read about Gronk. I am talking about your 1000 other posts of crap

 

[deroc5050]

Yeah I read about Gronk. I am talking about your 1000 other posts of crap

Oh about how we have an average Defense and that you apparently agree with me. I think you have problems.

 

[Bruins29]

Oh about how we have an average Defense and that you apparently agree with me. I think you have problems.

 

[luuked]

So you don't think this stat apply to the Pats, because of their 'chameleon' defense ?

In the Belichick years, 5 of their top 7 years in differential passer rating resulted in a Super Bowl berth. On the other end, 3 of the worst 5 years in differential passer rating were years we didn't make the playoffs.

There's an obvious pattern, even for the Pats.

2016 looks good so far (5th best year in the Belichick era), but in this model the offense is carrying much of the weight.

And yet in the majority of both successful and unsuccessful years it all came down to making or not making a handful plays.

****, shift 3-4 50/50 plays around and we have 6 SBs or stand around empty handed.

Correlation is not causation and above all not indicative of the future.

 

[Ring 6]

I know because we only need to score 18 points to win because the Pats defense only gives up 17 PPG. I like nail biters.

I like wins.
It seems you prefer stylistic losses

 

[1960Pats]

And then most of this is these worried posters just throwing out facts and stats which Andy Johnson keeps proving wrong.

He sure has. It's been a few days now and I'm running out of popcorn.

I'm curious to see how many others will try to make the Pats defense into an average defense. That's not easy to pull off.

 

[mosslost]

I agree with your posts for the most part. Throwing stats out the window, my main concern is the competition they have faced. Now without Gronk our offense is going to slow down a bit and this PPG defense hopefully steps up. The defense is going to need to get stops now. We can't depend on this offense putting up 30 points every game.

it only needs 18PPG to win

 

[mosslost]

Pat's average 8.72 point differential + this season. So the O can drop a TD and still win.

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

I think we will see the defense alot more on the field now. They have to step up. I don't expect our offense to score 28 plus

 

[deroc5050]

I think we will see the defense alot more on the field now. They have to step up. I don't expect our offense to score 28 plus

This is basically all i am saying and somehow I like stylistic losses? Andy you have issues too you and Bruins whatever the f*ck his name is. Starting after this weeks game we are gonna find out how good the Pats really are.