Pats D still Number 2 in AFC points against

[skinnydog]

If I had to chose a stat I know what I would pick.

I dont think BB thinks that at all. I also dont think many here think it either.

But this whole thing has been strawmaned to death.

Why don't you fill me in on the

If I had to chose a stat I know what I would pick.

I dont think BB thinks that at all. I also dont think many here think it either.

But this whole thing has been strawmaned to death.

just curious, but what stat would you pick and what exactly is the straw man?

 

[Bruins29]

Why don't you fill me in on the

just curious, but what stat would you pick and what exactly is the straw man?

It's been explained ad nauseam

 

[captain stone]

442 posts later, and there are still people here who believe that this defense is actually good?

It is to laugh.

 

[Ring 6]

I don't know what a chicken little is but when you start name calling over someones opinion, it gets a bit ridiculous.
.

You are joking right, since this was a direct reply to your blind homer comment.

 

[Ring 6]

442 posts later, and there are still people here who believe that this defense is actually good?

It is to laugh.

442 posts later they are still 3rd in the most vital defensive category.

 

[Ring 6]

Good god we all know what has happened, but the question about the defense and 90% of the reason people read and post on this board is to try figure out and predict what will happen. Yes, everything matters but in what order? I liked how the D looked in holding Arizona to 21 points. But holding teams like the Jets and 49ers to 17 points while allowing their lousy QBs to both look good and have good statistical games is a poor indicator of how this defense will fare against a competent offense. If this truly were the 3rd best defense in the league and given the GOAT QB of all time is on this team, I'd fly to Vegas and lay heavy money on the Pats to win it all. I still think they have a good chance of raising the trophy at the end of the year. However, This defense is average. Probably good enough to not get blown out, but from how things look now, if the Pats win it will not be because of the defense, but because of TB12 and the offense. In terms of predicting how this defense will perform in the playoffs I'll take the defensive passer rating stat every day over ppg as a predictive stat against the teams that will end up in the playoffs.

17 points against anyone is good. 17 points with "bad stats" wins more than 21 with "good stats".
Passer rating isn't a statistic it's a formula. It's an arbitrary weighted number that is a horrible system to rank a QB. When games start getting decided by passer rating then it will matter.
At the end of the day the playoff games will be decided by who scores more points not passer rating.
Did passer rating take into account totally shutting down Forte? Did it take into account 7 non scoring drives out of 10 with 5 1st firm and 130 yards of offense? No it doesn't. You know what does? The score.

By the way if you think kaepernick looked good you can stop there because you know nothing about football.

 

[deroc5050]

17 points against anyone is good. 17 points with "bad stats" wins more than 21 with "good stats".
Passer rating isn't a statistic it's a formula. It's an arbitrary weighted number that is a horrible system to rank a QB. When games start getting decided by passer rating then it will matter.
At the end of the day the playoff games will be decided by who scores more points not passer rating.
Did passer rating take into account totally shutting down Forte? Did it take into account 7 non scoring drives out of 10 with 5 1st firm and 130 yards of offense? No it doesn't. You know what does? The score.

By the way if you think kaepernick looked good you can stop there because you know nothing about football.

Kap I think was 9/10 in the first half. Not so good in the second half. Pats are the third best defense in the NFL and they have a top 5 offense in the NFL. Just go to Vegas and lay down the mortgage on a Super Bowl win.

Thats your take right? Name the best QB's they have played this season?

I think the Saints would lay a smack down on us.

 

[Ring 6]

Kap I think was 9/10 in the first half. Not so good in the second half.

You mean when he was 0/10? You mean when he put up 10 points before garbage time?

Pats are the third best defense in the NFL and they have a top 5 offense in the NFL. Just go to Vegas and lay down the mortgage on a Super Bowl win.

They clearly are the favorite.
You seem to think they need to be guaranteed a win for you to think they don't suck

Thats your take right? Name the best QB's they have played this season?

I think the Saints would lay a smack down on us.

Ok so you think the new orleans saints are much better than the New England patriots. Because there defense has proven Brady can't do anything against them right?
With every post you make you lose more credibility.

 

[skinnydog]

17 points against anyone is good. 17 points with "bad stats" wins more than 21 with "good stats".
Passer rating isn't a statistic it's a formula. It's an arbitrary weighted number that is a horrible system to rank a QB. When games start getting decided by passer rating then it will matter.
At the end of the day the playoff games will be decided by who scores more points not passer rating.
Did passer rating take into account totally shutting down Forte? Did it take into account 7 non scoring drives out of 10 with 5 1st firm and 130 yards of offense? No it doesn't. You know what does? The score.

By the way if you think kaepernick looked good you can stop there because you know nothing about football.

Kaepernick never looks good, but he did look better against the Pats than against most teams, strange that you can't see that.

 

[RIpats88]

I think the past two weeks they took a step forward. now, it could be the competition, or it could be they are starting to Gel after finding themselves again. Logan ryan has quietly turned in 2 good weeks in a row after being moved to the slot. and if Butler can get back on track this secondary is going to be fine.

another good week this week and a couple more turnovers and I will feel confident that this defense is turning it around at the right time.

 

[Ring 6]

Kaepernick never looks good, but he did look better against the Pats than against most teams, strange that you can't see that.

No he didn't. He scored less than his average against the patriots and had something like 6 straight drives without completing a pass.

 

[RIpats88]

I think people on both sides of the coin are wrong. Patriots defense is not elite #3 defense, but its not 2011 like some here want to say it is.

the fact that they are #3 in points says something at least. and the fact they have done it consistently says something as well

 

[luuked]

Good god we all know what has happened, but the question about the defense and 90% of the reason people read and post on this board is to try figure out and predict what will happen. Yes, everything matters but in what order? I liked how the D looked in holding Arizona to 21 points. But holding teams like the Jets and 49ers to 17 points while allowing their lousy QBs to both look good and have good statistical games is a poor indicator of how this defense will fare against a competent offense. If this truly were the 3rd best defense in the league and given the GOAT QB of all time is on this team, I'd fly to Vegas and lay heavy money on the Pats to win it all. I still think they have a good chance of raising the trophy at the end of the year. However, This defense is average. Probably good enough to not get blown out, but from how things look now, if the Pats win it will not be because of the defense, but because of TB12 and the offense. In terms of predicting how this defense will perform in the playoffs I'll take the defensive passer rating stat every day over ppg as a predictive stat against the teams that will end up in the playoffs.

 

[DarrylS]

Another really good gauge of this Defense is yards after catch, NE is second.. close behind Denver.

 

[RDS11]

442 posts later they are still 3rd in the most vital defensive category.

Yes, and we have shown that this has no correlation to postseason success.

Nobody is saying that the defense is so horrible we won't win another regular season game. But some of us, based on other seasons with similar defensive stats, have doubt this defense can win a playoff game if the offense does not score more than 24 points.

 

[Ring 6]

Kaepernick never looks good, but he did look better against the Pats than against most teams, strange that you can't see that.

Last week 29/46/296 3 tds 113 rushing yards 24 points.
Week 9 24/38/398 2 td 23 points
Vs us 16/30/206 2 td 17 points

Avg start 19/34/240 1.7 19.5 points.
Looks like you are wrong

 

[Ring 6]

Yes, and we have shown that this has no correlation to postseason success.

When did you do that? Because you didn't.

Patriot history under BB.

SB winners were ranked 1,2,6,8 in points allowed.

BB has had 9 teams ranked 8th or better in points allowed, and 6 teams ranked 9th or worse.

Playoff records
9 teams 8 or better: 15-4
6 teams 9 or worse 6-5

Every SB winner was 8th or better, and only 1 team that made it to the SB was worse than 8th.

This is a correlated as it gets.

Nobody is saying that the defense is so horrible we won't win another regular season game. But some of us, based on other seasons with similar defensive stats, have doubt this defense can win a playoff game if the offense does not score more than 24 points.

The above shows you are wrong.
BTW, teams scoring less than 24 points are 13-42 in the playoffs in the last 5 years, and 31-83 in the lasy 10, so pretty much everyone has to score 24 to win.

 

[Bruins29]

I think people on both sides of the coin are wrong. Patriots defense is not elite #3 defense,

And again, nobody has ever said this. What was posted was that they are third in a stat that BB said was the most important. And you are what your record says you are.

The whiners are saying that they have no confidence in the D come playoff time because of their "eye test". Or that they have not been tested by a good Offense etc..

Many attempts have been made to try to explain to these guys that the Patriots D is not perfect but will try to dictate that the opposing O has to play to their weakness. That is an aggressive D.

And then most of this is these worried posters just throwing out facts and stats which Andy Johnson keeps proving wrong.

 

[RDS11]

When did you do that? Because you didn't.

Patriot history under BB.

SB winners were ranked 1,2,6,8 in points allowed.

BB has had 9 teams ranked 8th or better in points allowed, and 6 teams ranked 9th or worse.

Playoff records
9 teams 8 or better: 15-4
6 teams 9 or worse 6-5

Every SB winner was 8th or better, and only 1 team that made it to the SB was worse than 8th.

This is a correlated as it gets.

Yes I did :

It's really not.
The one stat that really matters is the final score. Average PPG on a sample of 16 games does not mean much. One single game, good or bad, will skew the average.

The 2011 defense, which couldn't stop a nose bleed, was 15th in the league in PPG (21.4). The 2009 defense was 5th (17.8 PPG). In 2011 we got to the Super Bowl, and in 2009 the defense was run over by the Ravens in the wildcard game.

Again, I'm not saying this defense is awful. I'm not saying it's great either. It has flaws, which can be exploited by good, efficient offenses. Belichick and Patricia can overcome some deficiencies during the regular season, because most games are played against mediocre teams. But at some point in the playoffs, we will face a good, efficient passing team, and if the offense is sub par, I don't believe this defense has shown it can overcome that.

When I read all these comments about how great the defense is because of their regular season PPG average, I feel like a Colts fan. We are celebrating something that is not important and has no bearing on our playoff chances.

That's not true either.

Cold Hard Football Facts did an analysis a few years ago, and the better playoff predictor is the differential passing rating (offensive passer rating minus defensive passer rating). That the stats that correlates more to winning in the playoffs.

Edit : I found the analysis :
Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: The Truth Hurts

So there isn't a stat that correlate to winning an NFL Championship more than differential passer rating. Much more than average defensive PPG.

 

[skinnydog]

Last week 29/46/296 3 tds 113 rushing yards 24 points.
Week 9 24/38/398 2 td 23 points
Vs us 16/30/206 2 td 17 points

Avg start 19/34/240 1.7 19.5 points.
Looks like you are wrong

I'll concede on CK. He was much better against the Dolphins than I expected. I'm not impressed about the gaudy week 9 stats. That was against the Saints who have a truly bad defense.