Pats Comp picks: 3, 4 [now 5, too! Wow!]

[Sciz]

Beau Allen signing really paid off, guess he was only seen in Foxborough when it was paycheck day, should have been cut already in Sept

That wouldn’t have changed anything. Gerald McCoy was cut in August and still qualified.

 

[ashley]

Updated draft picks:

 

[DaBruinz]

That isn't a change.

Please cite when a player who spent the entire YEAR on IR has been included in the Comp Pick Formula previously.. one example

 

[captain stone]

Sucks, but at the same time I’ll take it. Byrd produced well enough on tiny money in a cap-strapped year to be worth a 4th. And if Van Noy ends up back again after 1 year I’m sure Bill won’t be too mad.

I'd rather have the 4th-rounder.

 

[Love The Drake]

Beau Allen signing really paid off, guess he was only seen in Foxborough when it was paycheck day, should have been cut already in Sept

I didn’t understand and hated the signing.
I could see him and Arians laughing on the phone

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Beau Allen signing really paid off, guess he was only seen in Foxborough when it was paycheck day, should have been cut already in Sept

That wouldn't have mattered as far as comp picks go.

 

[Sciz]

I didn’t understand and hated the signing.
I could see him and Arians laughing on the phone

How did that go? "Haha you idiot, don't you know that I'm going to suffer a severe injury in four and a half months? Why would you give me millions of dollars?"

 

[captain stone]

Fat Thor sucked before he ever arrived in Foxborough.

 

[venecol]

The basic idea is this: all players are ranked based on the annual average value of their contracts, including LTBE incentives and NLTBE incentives earned in the first year. The highest player receives a point total equal to the number of players with contracts (this year, 2164). The second highest player receives one less point (2163), the third highest player gets one less, and so on down to the lowest-paid players.

Then, there are a couple of adjustments. The main one is playing time: players who play 25% or more of snaps on O or D get a point for each percent. [There's a different system for K and P.] Also, there's a 20 point bonus for being named All-Pro.

These sums are added up, and then percentiles determined. Comp picks are based on those percentiles: >95th = 3rd, >90th = 4th, >85th = 5th, >75th = 6th, >65th = 7th. Brady, for example, ended up around the 99th percentile, so he earned a 3. Van Noy and Collins were both in the low 90s, so they were worth 4s.

The only explanation for what happened here is that Damiere Byrd ranked around the 63rd percentile before accounting for play time, but played almost 90% of snaps. That gave him a bonus 90 points. That must have moved him above the 65th percentile, while Elandon Roberts (40% of D snaps) and Nate Ebner (ST only) fell below the threshold.

The rule for canceling out picks is that you cancel out within the same round first, then lower rounds, and then higher rounds. Phillips and Allen canceled out Shelton and Karras (all 6th rounders), meaning Byrd canceled out Collins. :-(

So basically, the #102 graded WR ($1.5M) canceled out the comp pick (#4) of the #24 graded LB ($ 11M) because the Patriots WR-1 (Harry) was such trash (graded #115), they had to put out this below avg receiver (Byrd) 90% of the snaps? Lol, that's too ironic.

 

[borisman]

Another reminder to be careful to the folks that just assume comp picks are automatic when talking about roster management and free agency.

That may be true but this is the first time I can remember when the predicted comp picks we this far off. The formulas used were pretty much on the money.
Kraft should sue.

 

[AlexB]

That may be true but this is the first time I can remember when the predicted comp picks we this far off. The formulas used were pretty much on the money.
Kraft should sue.

The point is that there are too many things out of the team's control from the point they let the FA walk till comp picks are awarded. Factors like playtime, getting cut, honors, etc. can all change the comp pick calculation.

As an example, when Pats just traded for Trent Brown, a lot of people were saying the team would get the pick (or even a better one) back after he leaves to get paid again. If he does create a comp pick (in the 2023 draft), then great - but it's not something Bill would have factored into his decision to trade for him, and it's not something we should use to argue why the trade was good or bad.

 

[Tony2046]

I fear that this might end @ashley1992 's binky crush on Elandon Roberts.

 

[venecol]

I fear that this might end @ashley1992 's binky crush on Elandon Roberts.

One last low blow by Elandon on the way out. Lol

 

[borisman]

The point is that there are too many things out of the team's control from the point they let the FA walk till comp picks are awarded. Factors like playtime, getting cut, honors, etc. can all change the comp pick calculation.

As an example, when Pats just traded for Trent Brown, a lot of people were saying the team would get the pick (or even a better one) back after he leaves to get paid again. If he does create a comp pick (in the 2023 draft), then great - but it's not something Bill would have factored into his decision to trade for him, and it's not something we should use to argue why the trade was good or bad.

Totally not what I was referring to. It had nothing to do with FA leaving and BB expecting comp picks. The post was only referring to the fact that comp pick formulas are usually on the money and this time it's way off. We lost 2 comp picks we should have gained.

 

[mgteich]

I'd rather have the 4th-rounder.

sure, and you rather that we didn't sign Thuney or McCourty last year and just carried the cap money forward.

 

[captain stone]

sure, and you rather that we didn't sign Thuney or McCourty last year and just carried the cap money forward.

...Or re-sign Brady...

 

[Joey007]

turns out we got an extra 5th after all.

 

[NashuaPats]

turns out we got an extra 5th after all.

A lot of people here said the NFL screwed us out of a pick. Turns out they were right and the NFL agreed. Kudos to them.

Belichick has some ammo to move up.

 

[Mack Herron]

Now we just need to know who BB covets.

 

[farn]

Would love for NE to find the gem of the draft at that 5th round spot... and watch the league go berserk.