Pats Comp picks: 3, 4 [now 5, too! Wow!]

[luuked]

That's unlucky but thems the breaks.

 

[Mack Herron]

Just ratchets up the pressure to hit on our picks this year.

 

[DaBruinz]

The basic idea is this: all players are ranked based on the annual average value of their contracts, including LTBE incentives and NLTBE incentives earned in the first year. The highest player receives a point total equal to the number of players with contracts (this year, 2164). The second highest player receives one less point (2163), the third highest player gets one less, and so on down to the lowest-paid players.

Then, there are a couple of adjustments. The main one is playing time: players who play 25% or more of snaps on O or D get a point for each percent. [There's a different system for K and P.] Also, there's a 20 point bonus for being named All-Pro.

These sums are added up, and then percentiles determined. Comp picks are based on those percentiles: >95th = 3rd, >90th = 4th, >85th = 5th, >75th = 6th, >65th = 7th. Brady, for example, ended up around the 99th percentile, so he earned a 3. Van Noy and Collins were both in the low 90s, so they were worth 4s.

The only explanation for what happened here is that Damiere Byrd ranked around the 63rd percentile before accounting for play time, but played almost 90% of snaps. That gave him a bonus 90 points. That must have moved him above the 65th percentile, while Elandon Roberts (40% of D snaps) and Nate Ebner (ST only) fell below the threshold.

The rule for canceling out picks is that you cancel out within the same round first, then lower rounds, and then higher rounds. Phillips and Allen canceled out Shelton and Karras (all 6th rounders), meaning Byrd canceled out Collins. :-(

The problem is that it doesn't explain Beau Allen. His APY number for this year would have been 2.15M. He also had ZERO pts added for his snap count. But Roberts, who had a 2.0M and would have 40 points added, didn't count?? According to the rules, LTBE bonuses that were unearned aren't supposed to be counted while NLTBE bonuses earned ARE.

Every player is supposed to get a Numerical Point Value based on AYC, Honors, and Game Participation. The NPV is supposed to be what determines who cancels who out.

 

[patfanken]

BTW- I just read where SF got a comp pick because they lost a minority coach (robert Saleh). Did we get a pick when Flores went to Miami?

 

[AlexB]

Just ratchets up the presdure to hit on our picks this year.

Just goes to show how you can't rely on getting comp picks - plenty of things can happen outside the team's control that can take away the pick. Hopefully this will be a good lesson to keep in mind when people say "We signed/traded for Player X - great move because we'll get a comp pick for him"

 

[AlexB]

BTW- I just read where SF got a comp pick because they lost a minority coach (robert Saleh). Did we get a pick when Flores went to Miami?

I think they just added that rule

 

[patfanken]

I think they just added that rule

so in other words, "screwed again"

 

[DaBruinz]

BTW- I just read where SF got a comp pick because they lost a minority coach (robert Saleh). Did we get a pick when Flores went to Miami?

No. We didn't.. Happened before they put that BS in

 

[RobertWeathers]

I think they just added that rule

Jedd Fisch is Jewish.

Thats gotta be a least a 3rd round comp pick.

@Patjew?

 

[DropKickFlutie]

So Elandon Roberts was total garbage as a Patriot and screwed us one last time on not playing a game thus losing a third comp pick. Every time I ever saw Elandon or Jordan Richards on the field it was a sieve on defense.

 

[Hyped]

Well....I'll take em'...lol

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Another reminder to be careful to the folks that just assume comp picks are automatic when talking about roster management and free agency.

The issue is that the guy who does it made no effort to take the snap counts into account, and didn't list Byrd's contract at all. If I had seen he was that close to the cutoff, I would have brought attention to it.

That said, the formula is public now, so it basically is just a matter of doing the math.

 

[Midship]

That's unlucky but thems the breaks.

This sounds like complete ********

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The problem is that it doesn't explain Beau Allen. His APY number for this year would have been 2.15M. He also had ZERO pts added for his snap count. But Roberts, who had a 2.0M and would have 40 points added, didn't count?? According to the rules, LTBE bonuses that were unearned aren't supposed to be counted while NLTBE bonuses earned ARE.

Every player is supposed to get a Numerical Point Value based on AYC, Honors, and Game Participation. The NPV is supposed to be what determines who cancels who out.

It's not based on salary cap hit. It's based on average annual value of the contract, including LTBE incentives. So his contract number was $3.5M.

 

[DaBruinz]

It's not based on salary cap hit. It's based on average annual value of the contract, including LTBE incentives. So his contract number was $3.5M.

That makes no f'in sense that they'd include Game Day Bonus as if it was a roster bonus and therefore, automatically included in the AAV.
The fact that they changed the situation so that players who spend the entire year on the IR are included is ridiculous.

 

[mgteich]

The comp pick formula is now explicitly stated in the CBA. ST gunners like Slater and Bethel get screwed, because it only rewards playing 25%+ of snaps on O or D. [There is a separate formula for kickers and punters.]

Basically, Byrd's contract, based on value alone, started off just below the cutoff. Ebner and Roberts started off just above. Enough players just below the line, including Byrd, had large enough playtime percentages to push them over the line and push Ebner and Roberts under.

You are trying to confuse folks with facts. Is that allowed?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

That makes no f'in sense that they'd include Game Day Bonus as if it was a roster bonus and therefore, automatically included in the AAV.
The fact that they changed the situation so that players who spend the entire year on the IR are included is ridiculous.

That isn't a change.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

That makes no f'in sense that they'd include Game Day Bonus as if it was a roster bonus and therefore, automatically included in the AAV.
The fact that they changed the situation so that players who spend the entire year on the IR are included is ridiculous.

It counts to the extent that they were earned the previous season. In Allen's case, he played 14 games last year, so 14/16 of the bonus is counted as LTBE.

 

[masterbouncer]

Beau Allen signing really paid off, guess he was only seen in Foxborough when it was paycheck day, should have been cut already in Sept

 

[luuked]

The issue is that the guy who does it made no effort to take the snap counts into account, and didn't list Byrd's contract at all. If I had seen he was that close to the cutoff, I would have brought attention to it.

That said, the formula is public now, so it basically is just a matter of doing the math.

What do you mean no effort ? Korte has been doing this for years and has a hit rate of over 99%. Don't **** on him for a service he does for free and more importantly dont move goalposts because his rare mistake is not the point.

Bozos here often assume that comp picks are a certainty and here we have proof how just because Elandon Roberts missed the final Dolphins game with a knee injury things changed in an instant.

To make it more blatant. Don't assume that a FA lost on a high salary will end up being a comp pick and don't use this as a reason to not trade people away before their final year or sign FAs.