Pats Comp picks: 3, 4 [now 5, too! Wow!]

[Mack Herron]

 

[Joey007]

What was the additional one expected?

 

[Ross12]

So the NFL says Tom Brady = 3rd, Jamie Collins = 4th, and then Byrd = Van Noy (how?) and Phillips/Allen = Shelton/Karras. Apparently Roberts and Ebner just don't count... but then why does Byrd?

 

[Joey007]

So the NFL says Tom Brady = 3rd, Jamie Collins = 4th, and then Byrd = Van Noy (how?) and Phillips/Allen = Shelton/Karras. Apparently Roberts and Ebner just don't count... but then why does Byrd?

That damn TD vs. Houston. Should have dropped it.

 

[Sciz]

So the NFL says Tom Brady = 3rd, Jamie Collins = 4th, and then Byrd = Van Noy (how?) and Phillips/Allen = Shelton/Karras. Apparently Roberts and Ebner just don't count... but then why does Byrd?

Playing time is a factor, but there was zero reason to believe that Byrd at $1.6M and 89% of snaps would count while Roberts at $2M and 39% of snaps or even Ebner at $2M at 4% of the defensive snaps wouldn't.

 

[Ross12]

Playing time is a factor, but there was zero reason to believe that Byrd at $1.6M and 89% of snaps would count while Roberts at $2M and 39% of snaps or even Ebner at $2M at 4% of the defensive snaps wouldn't.

Meanwhile, Allen counted while never playing a down.

 

[long distance]

So the NFL says Tom Brady = 3rd, Jamie Collins = 4th, and then Byrd = Van Noy (how?) and Phillips/Allen = Shelton/Karras. Apparently Roberts and Ebner just don't count... but then why does Byrd?

Unfortunately as Nick often adds - no one knows what enters the math there - can only speculate. Why this has to be kept secret is ridiculous.

He assumed that its a combination of contract, playing time and something else which we can now guess its production (however they qualify it). So what they decide was “gained“ (or even “could be gained“) on the field by FA..

Meanwhile, Allen counted while never playing a down.

And possibly previous/expected/possible production..

Its really a disgrace that 100-billion dollar operation operates like some sort of kabal.. Then again, thats the nature of modern business..

 

[mgteich]

So the NFL says Tom Brady = 3rd, Jamie Collins = 4th, and then Byrd = Van Noy (how?) and Phillips/Allen = Shelton/Karras. Apparently Roberts and Ebner just don't count... but then why does Byrd?

Damn! They screwed us again@! We could have drafted the next Tom Brady with that sixth. NOT!

 

[Sciz]

Not just the Patriots. The Ravens lost a 5th because $2M and 0 snaps wasn't enough to qualify. Those are the two teams who have ruled this process in recent years, and both got screwed over when the standard to qualify apparently was somewhere above $2M and 39% snaps but below $1.6M and 89% snaps.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Well that's unfortunate. At least we get something at all. Too bad about that forfeited 3rd rounder.

 

[DaBruinz]

Playing time is a factor, but there was zero reason to believe that Byrd at $1.6M and 89% of snaps would count while Roberts at $2M and 39% of snaps or even Ebner at $2M at 4% of the defensive snaps wouldn't.

You missed that both had Special Teams snaps. 9.49% for Roberts and 80.5% (322) for Ebner.

 

[DaBruinz]

Meanwhile, Allen counted while never playing a down.

Never seen a player who spent the entire year on IR count in the Comp formula before.

 

[Sciz]

You missed that both had Special Teams snaps. 9.49% for Roberts and 80.5% (322) for Ebner.

I don't believe that matters, or at least that Korte doesn't think it matters. He posted a snippet of his spreadsheet lately that included a column for offensive/defensive snaps, but not ST.

 

[Sciz]

Miguel pointed out Byrd made $300k in catch incentives for a total of $1.9M, so we've closed that gap quite a bit. Still clear that the two best teams at gaming the comp pick system expected $2M with minimal playing time to qualify but it didn't.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Playing time is a factor, but there was zero reason to believe that Byrd at $1.6M and 89% of snaps would count while Roberts at $2M and 39% of snaps or even Ebner at $2M at 4% of the defensive snaps wouldn't.

I don't believe that matters, or at least that Korte doesn't think it matters. He posted a snippet of his spreadsheet lately that included a column for offensive/defensive snaps, but not ST.

The comp pick formula is now explicitly stated in the CBA. ST gunners like Slater and Bethel get screwed, because it only rewards playing 25%+ of snaps on O or D. [There is a separate formula for kickers and punters.]

Basically, Byrd's contract, based on value alone, started off just below the cutoff. Ebner and Roberts started off just above. Enough players just below the line, including Byrd, had large enough playtime percentages to push them over the line and push Ebner and Roberts under.

 

[long distance]

The comp pick formula is now explicitly stated in the CBA. ST gunners like Slater and Bethel get screwed, because it only rewards playing 25%+ of snaps on O or D. [There is a separate formula for kickers and punters.]

Basically, Byrd's contract, based on value alone, started off just below the cutoff. Ebner and Roberts started off just above. Enough players just below the line, including Byrd, had large enough playtime percentages to push them over the line and push Ebner and Roberts under.

You say its explicitly stated. So how exactly do contract & play % add up in this formula?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

You say its explicitly stated. So how exactly do contract & play % add up in this formula?

The basic idea is this: all players are ranked based on the annual average value of their contracts, including LTBE incentives and NLTBE incentives earned in the first year. The highest player receives a point total equal to the number of players with contracts (this year, 2164). The second highest player receives one less point (2163), the third highest player gets one less, and so on down to the lowest-paid players.

Then, there are a couple of adjustments. The main one is playing time: players who play 25% or more of snaps on O or D get a point for each percent. [There's a different system for K and P.] Also, there's a 20 point bonus for being named All-Pro.

These sums are added up, and then percentiles determined. Comp picks are based on those percentiles: >95th = 3rd, >90th = 4th, >85th = 5th, >75th = 6th, >65th = 7th. Brady, for example, ended up around the 99th percentile, so he earned a 3. Van Noy and Collins were both in the low 90s, so they were worth 4s.

The only explanation for what happened here is that Damiere Byrd ranked around the 63rd percentile before accounting for play time, but played almost 90% of snaps. That gave him a bonus 90 points. That must have moved him above the 65th percentile, while Elandon Roberts (40% of D snaps) and Nate Ebner (ST only) fell below the threshold.

The rule for canceling out picks is that you cancel out within the same round first, then lower rounds, and then higher rounds. Phillips and Allen canceled out Shelton and Karras (all 6th rounders), meaning Byrd canceled out Collins. :-(

 

[Mack Herron]

I spoke with Park Ave.

 

[luuked]

Another reminder to be careful to the folks that just assume comp picks are automatic when talking about roster management and free agency.

 

[Ross12]

Sucks, but at the same time I’ll take it. Byrd produced well enough on tiny money in a cap-strapped year to be worth a 4th. And if Van Noy ends up back again after 1 year I’m sure Bill won’t be too mad.