Pats at Chargers: pre-game opinions

[102 Pat]

Check out the crappy video of himself he posted in his sig

YouTube - San Diego Chargers #1 Fan!

LMAO

I think the Chargers should hire him as there new mascot!

 

[patsfaninpa]

This team reminds me of 2003, not 2001...The reason is that the media already knew in 2003 that we had won a superbowl yet chose to overlook us anyway, the team had a lot of young rookies thrown into the fire immediately, the draft was great but the fans and media dissed several picks, we had better talent than 2001, and we had a defining moment, at least IMO. When I watched the first Miami game, the refs basically gave the game to the fish on a silver platter all day long and then within the final two minutes, Ricky Williams very clearly put a knee on the ground and got up and ran about thirty more yards and the stinking officials could not even be bothered to review the play. Then in overtime, he put a foot out of bounds and the refs could not be bothered to review the play. Seymour then blocked the field goal and Troy Brown somehow outran Surtain for the TD. At that point I decided that if there really is any karma left in the universe, that Pats would win the game, and the superbowl. After the game, Matt Light said it was the defining point of the season for the Pats. I felt that when watching the game. Reminds me exactly of the Ravens game this year...

Anyway, sorry to get OT but that is what I have been thinking since last weekend.

The Chargers game will be tough and hard fought, and it sure would be lovely to have Bodden at CB....We are going to need to show the same mental toughness we showed last week to win.

I was in the chat room that day. Remember it vividly. After the Ravens went up 17-7. There was no point I thought we were going to win that game. I thought we better win in regulation. Would have been nice to have had a healthy Fred Taylor on the drive that tied it. We just don't have a big enough back to pound it in when that type of situation comes up. They were givins us the run. We were too worried about it being stopped.

 

[jmt57]

Some interesting stats on the Chargers, that go far deeper than the overly simplistic offensive and defensive yardage rankings. Here are a few of them are below.

Numbers games - SignOnSanDiego.com

• I wrote last week about Antoine Cason having allowed just 201 yards on 20 receptions despite being targeted 34 times in the first five games. It is only fair to point out exactly how much of a disaster Cason’s sixth start was. He was burned on five of the six passes his way for 90 yards and a touchdown.

• I mentioned Jammer in that same story, noting he was allowing an average of just 8.9 yards on the 10 catches he had allowed. That average dropped to 8.8 after he allowed one eight-yard reception Sunday. Jammer has allowed 11 receptions on 26 targets, a rate of 42.3 percent that is 11th among those targeted at least 20 times this season.

• Despite a season-low three completions that went for more than 20 yards, Philip Rivers still leads the league with 35 such completions. All three completions at St. Louis went to Patrick Crayton. Malcom Floyd and Antonio Gates both have 10 receptions for 20-plus, tied for second in the NFL behind Denver’s Brandon Lloyd (13).

• Among the 38 players in the NFL targeted at least 40 times this season, Antonio Gate’s 72.1 percent reception rate is third behind Indianapolis’ Austin Collie (81.5) and New England’s Wes Welker (73.3).

• Two weeks ago, the Chargers’ 11 takeaways led the NFL. Today, their 11 takeaways are tied for 12th. Meanwhile, they rank 23rd in turnover differential, having given the ball away three more times than they’ve taken it. The Chargers are 2-0 at home and plus-five in turnovers. They’re 0-4 on the road and minus-eight in turnovers.

• The 82 offensive points the Chargers have allowed are fourth-fewest in the NFL. But their six miscellaneous TDs allowed (two kickoff returns, a punt return, a blocked punt return and a fumble return) are twice as many as any other team.

• Opposing quarterbacks have a 54.3 passer rating when the Chargers blitz, second-lowest in the NFL. But the Chargers have blitzed on just 71 pass plays, tied for 17th-most. Of the Chargers 21 sacks, 11 have come on blitzes. The Chargers have just two fourth-quarter sacks, tied for seventh-fewest.

 

[patfanken]

First thanks JM for putting this thread together. Lots of good stuff to absorb. Later when I have more time I'd like to add some thoughts

 

[jmt57]

Time to turn it around or pack it in for these four by Pete Prisco of CBS Sports.

San Diego Chargers (2-4)

The skinny: When you look through the Chargers' stats, it's hard to believe this is a 2-4 team. They are ranked first in the NFL in total offense and first in total defense. They lead the NFL in first downs on offense with 144 and are second in giving up first downs with 86. Those are not the numbers of a 2-4 team. So what's wrong? They've struggled on special teams. The Chargers are last in the league in punt-returns against and 21st in kickoff-returns against. They've had three punts blocked. That's not helping field position.

Area of most concern: Special teams -- without a doubt. Look at all their numbers. They are struggling in a lot of areas. In addition to the negative numbers above, the Chargers are 32nd in net punting. The Chargers have given up six non-offensive touchdowns this season. Punter Mike Scifres has had three punts blocked after having just one blocked in his career until this season.

Shocking negative stat: The Chargers have turned it over 14 times, which ties three other teams for third worst in the league. Those 14 turnovers offset 11 takeaways, leaving them at minus-3.

How they can turn it around: Stop making special-teams mistakes. They have the numbers to show they can be effective on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Philip Rivers is leading the league in passing yards. So if they cut down on the special-teams miscues and the turnovers, they will turn it around.

Players who need to step it up: The offensive line. Although the offense has moved the ball, Rivers has been under a ton of pressure. And the running game isn't as good as expected. They also need to have a key special-teams player emerge. The loss of Kassim Osgood to the Jaguars was a big hit.

Turn-it-around meter: High. They play in a bad division. And their numbers on offense and defense are better than the record. That tells me there is a better football team than what we've seen. We start to see it Sunday against New England.

Considering how many times poor special teams play was mentioned, what are the chances that the Pats get a special teams coach fired for the second time this year?

 

[jmt57]

A couple other quick notes that don't merit a thread of their own, but I thought were still worth mentioning so I'll put them in here.


Pats practice: Edelman back from concussion by Christopher Price of WEEI

Wide receiver and return specialist Julian Edelman returned to practice on Thursday as the Patriots worked out in full pads on the upper practice fields in preparation for the San Diego Chargers this weekend in Southern California. Edelman missed Wednesday after suffering a concussion on Sunday.

Running back Fred Taylor (toe) and safety Jarrad Page (calf) were the only two players missing from the open portion of Patriots practice.

Taylor has missed the last two games since injuring a toe during the game against Buffalo on Sept. 26 at Gillette Stadium.

Warren progressing well in rehab by Shalise Manza Young of the Boston Globe

Ty Warren was in the locker room briefly today during the media-access window and offered a quick update on his rehab.

The veteran defensive lineman is "doing good," he said. Warren underwent surgery Aug. 16 to repair a torn labrum in his hip and was on crutches for about two months. His main focus now, he said, is regaining muscle strength after not using his hip and the necessary muscles for so long.

His rehab has progressed to the point where he's able to use an elliptical machine; he also does pool workouts.

Kevin Faulk is prepped and ready to undergo knee surgery by Ian Rapoport of the Boston Herald

Kevin Faulk was all smiles earlier today (Wednesday) in the locker room. The running back and team captain had a good time joking with reporters awaiting the arrival of Brandon Meriweather, who sits two lockers away. Faulk even cracked with one scribe to try out his pads, because they weren’t going to be used for awhile.

That’s Faulk. Always the good humor man.

As it turns out, Faulk confirmed earlier that he would be undergoing surgery to reconstruct his ACL tomorrow (Thursday). Faulk had suffered the injury during the Sept. 19 game against the Jets. Doctors allowed some time for the swelling in the knee to go down, before moving on to surgery.

The usual recovery process is six months. Faulk has not ruled out the possibility of trying to play again. So after a long and gruelling rehab, stay tuned.

 

[jmt57]

Rich Levine of Comcast SportsNet New England lists San Diego's deep offensive attack, their defensive pressure and, Antonio Gates as key factors in the game at San Diego.

Home field won't be only advantage for Chargers

San Diego comes in with three very capable running backs — rookie Ryan Mathews, bruising back-up Mike Tolbert, and versatile third-down threat Darren Sproles

"If you can run the ball you can do play action," said Chung. "There's a threat to run every play, plus they throw the ball to their running backs, too. They can go anywhere at anytime."

On the other side of the ball, the Chargers defense isn't quite as weak as their record would suggest. In fact, they're giving up fewer passing yards a game than anyone in the league.

Part of that, at least according to Wes Welker, is a result of San Diego's intense pass rush, led by Shaun Phillips (six sacks on the season) and Kevin Burnett (five).

"Obviosuly, our offensive line has to do a great job and the pickups for the backs and tight ends is going to be key for us," Welker said. "Also receivers getting open quick, and just making sure we’re getting open."

One thing that will make getting open easier, is the Patriots new look passing game. A more balanced, spread-out attack, as opposed to the less diverse strategy they used with Randy Moss.

"Guys being able to do everything, whether it's playing in the slot or playing outside, doing different things or running different routes, and everybody collectively getting open, and Tom finding the right guy." Welker said, "It definitely helps."

 

[Oswlek]

SD has had a number of long KO returns, including 2 returned for TDs in the same game, as well as blocked punts returned for TDs and the like. Things like this go on the scoreboard, but take away yardage allowed from the D and give the ball back to the offense for another possession. I'm not saying they would be bottom third with better special teams, but their top billing team yardage-wise does come into question.

On that note, here are some more broken down stats.

* SD is 13th in the league in defensive 3rd down %, at 37.5% allowed. Their opponents have the following offensive 3rd down percentages.

39.8% - StL
42.6% - Seattle
34.1% - Oak
34.8% - KC
29.5% - Zona
39.5% - Jax

Only Seattle is in the top half at #8. StL and Jax are next at 16th and 17th. So, the team that is supposed to be the #1 defense in the league is middle of the road at allowing converted 3rd downs despite facing a lousy set of offenses.

* SD is 18th at offensive 3rd down conversion rate at 39.4%. Again, here is the opposition on defense:

33.8% - StL
36.4% - Seattle
41.3% - Oak
34.7% - KC
45.2% - Zona
45.5% - Jax

This is a bit less damning since SD has faced three defenses in the top 10, but it isn't nearly as impressive as their yardage ranking. The average is better than three and worse than three and right about at the mean. Not exactly where you would expect a top offense to end up.

Let's also look at passer rating, which I don't exactly like but it is illuminating.

* SD's defensive passer rating is an impressive 67.8, good for 2nd in the league. The bad news for them is the offensiving rating of teams they have faced.

69.3 - StL
75.5 - Seattle
66.4 - Oak
84.5 - KC
59.0 - Zona
77.6 - Jax

SD's rating isn't too far off from the 72.1 mean of that pathetic group. When the best passing team you've faced is quarterbacked by Matt Cassel, you should be a top 5 team according to defensive passer rating.

* Now, the one thing that is a genuine concern is SD's offensive passer rating of 100.8.

79.5 - StL
79.3 - Seattle
98.5 - Oak
84.3 - KC
82.2 - Zona
110 - Jax

Only two of the teams allow opposing QBs to pass for near what Rivers is, and he is nearly 12 points over the mean of 89.0, despite facing one of those defenses in the middle of a monsoon. Both times Rivers faced a passing defense in line with NE's (96.5 - getting better :rocker he tore them up.

* Looking at yards per attempt. SD's rushing ypc is 4.3 for 12th in the league. Here are the defenses

4.4 - StL
2.9 - Seattle
5.0 - Oak
3.7 - KC
4.3 - Zona
4.3 - Jax

Similar to most of the others, you have a performance that is about at the mean of the defenses faced. This is pretty fair considering no one believes that SD's rushing game is their biggest threat.

* SD's rushing ypc allowed is 3.7, good for 6th in the league.

3.6 - StL
3.6 - Seattle
4.2 - Oak
4.9 - KC
4.5 - Zona
4.3 - Jax

Looking at the offenses actually makes SD's defense even more impressive. Their ypc is about even with the two worst offenses they've faced and more than a half yard better than every other opponent. The problem for SD is that NE is the first team they will be facing that doesn't run to set up the pass.

* Passing ypa basically illustrates what we already know. SD is tops in the league by a healthy margin at 9.1, almost 2 full yards higher than the mean defense faced.

6.8 - StL
7.4 - Seattle
7.3 - Oak
6.9 - KC
7.0 - Zona
8.8 - Jax

Only Jax is even close. Every other defense was shreaded big time. Not a good sign for a Patriots team that is already allowing 7.6 ypa, the 2nd worst pass defense SD will have faced on the young season.

* SD is also impressively ranked at passing ypa at #4 with 6.1. Again, this will look less noteworthy when more closely inspected.

5.9 - StL
6.5 - Seattle
6.3 - Oak
6.3 - KC
5.8 - Zona
6.4 - Jax

Not a single offense faced is in the top 20! Wow.

The more I look at things, the more it looks like SD's passing defense is average at best and will be cut up by NE this week.

On the whole, I'm having a really hard time seeing them score less than 24 points considering the matchup between SD's passing and NE's pass defense. This isn't a team like Baltimore that leans on the run when the going gets tough. That said, NE appears to have a sizable advantage over their defense and special teams so a 31-27 victory isn't out of the question.

 

[TBradyOwnsYou]

No way Pats D can compete with this team. Unless offense can score 28 and ST can add 7, I don't see a W.

SD 35 NE 17

I think the altitude has affected your brain...

Considering how many times poor special teams play was mentioned, what are the chances that the Pats get a special teams coach fired for the second time this year?

Ha! I'm not sure what the record is for a team getting opposing coaches fired in a season, but I want to set it!

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

No way Pats D can compete with this team. Unless offense can score 28 and ST can add 7, I don't see a W.

SD 35 NE 17

You should charge money for analysis like this.

 

[Silver Blue&Red]

Check out the crappy video of himself he posted in his sig

YouTube - San Diego Chargers #1 Fan!

LMAO

Very classy BTW, say hi to your mom for me.

 

[Urgent]

San Diego receivers Floyd, Nanuu Naanee, and Gates did not practice again Thr.

Floyd is out, but Naanee and Gates appear limited. Definitely a blow for them.

Sounds like Sanders was back today for the Pats, which should help the secondary, especially against larger running backs.

 

[Patspsycho]

Their five man slide is terrible on their runs so I expect our LBs to do a lot more crashing and one-gapping to stop the run game.

 

[SEA_Pat]

Ninkovich: Chargers are ‘going to be dangerous’ | Chris Price, WEEI | Its Is What It Is

You know, Rob Ninkovich has been a very pleasant surprise this year, but, you know, he doesn't seem like he's, you know, got a really good chance to move up to, you know, the broadcast booth any time soon after he, you know, retires. Welkeritis.

 

[Lansdowne]

Very classy BTW, say hi to your mom for me.

:wha:

(10 char)

 

[Patspsycho]

:wha:

(10 char)

I didn't know Delonte was a member of this forum.

 

[WhiteWesWelker88]

Deaderick is going to hit somebody and notch another sack

 

[jmt57]

Mike Reiss lists his three keys to the game for the Pats as defending big plays in the Chargers passing game, pass protection against the Chargers defense, and coming out strong in the second half against a San Diego team that has outscored their opponents 46-14 in the third quarter this season.

Video: Reiss' 3 keys for Pats vs. Chargers - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

 

[jmt57]

A ton of stats, tidbits and trivia in this Pats-Chargers preview.

Nuggetpalooza’s Patriots-Chargers preview! by Gary Marbry of WEEI

* - San Diego has lost nine fumbles this season already, the most in the NFL. However, New England’s defense has forced fumbles on just 0.8 percent of opponent offensive touches, the lowest percentage in the league. They have recovered just one fumble by an opponent all season (tied for last).

* - Moss fallout? New England’s wide receivers averaged just 3.44 yards after the catch last weekend against Baltimore, their lowest average in the last 18 games and just the second time since at least 2003 that they’ve averaged less than 3.50 YAC despite 15 or more catches.

* - Over the last two games, the Patriots are 4-for-4 on passes to their tight end caught behind the line of scrimmage. So what, you ask? Well, they had attempted only one such pass in their last 25 previous games. More evidence of an offense evolving beyond Randy Moss?

* - The Patriots have had success (gained four yards or more) on 59 percent of their first down plays this season, the highest percentage in the league. San Diego’s defense has allowed success on just 41 percents of those plays, the fourth best mark. On offense, the Chargers lead the league with an average gain of 6.98 yards on first down plays, thanks to gains of ten or more yards 27 percent on the time.

* - San Diego’s defense has forced three and outs on 30 percent of opponent possessions (ranked third) while the Pats’ offense has gone three and out 24 percent of the time (ranked 21st).

* - New England receivers suffered five more dropped passes last Sunday, accounting for 15 percent of catchable balls. For the season, they’ve dropped 11.8 percent of catchable throws, the second worst percentage in the NFL.

* - So far in 2010, the New England pass rush has knocked down the opposing quarterback on just nine percent of pass plays, the second lowest percentage in the league. They’ve caused hurries on just 4.6 percent, ranked third lowest.

On the other side, San Diego’s defense ranks in the middle of the pack (18th) with 12.9 percent knockdowns and near the bottom (31st) in hurries (4.5 percent).

* - The Chargers lead the NFL with 35 pass plays of 20 or more yards and 52 percent of their total passing yards have come on those big plays (also ranked first). New England’s defense has done well in limiting big plays through the air, as only 27 percent of their pass yards allowed have come on big plays (ranked second).

* - There is quite a contrast between these teams so far in opponent starting field position: New England’s opponents have started at the 26.7 yard line (ranked third), while the Chargers’ opponents have set up shop at the 32.4 (27th).

 

[jmt57]

Looks like Fred Taylor and Jarrad Page will be inactive Sunday.

It Is What It Is: Page and Taylor missing from start of Patriots practice by Christopher Price of WEEI

As was the case on Thursday, running back Fred Taylor and safety Jarrad Page were the only two players missing from the start of Patriots practice, a session held on the upper fields behind Gillette Stadium in sweats and shells. Taylor has been hobbled by a toe injury, while Page appeared to suffer a calf injury in last week’s win over the Ravens. Their absence likely means the two will not be playing Sunday when New England faces San Diego.