Patriots Pregame Thread Patriots @ Seahawks pre-game discussion

[TheRainMaker]

Pats offense is better, but the defense will be worse at Edge.

Seattle’s D had the day off with the Pats OL in shambles and Maye with a shoulder injury. Like 2007, nobody in the national media wants to acknowledge that.

Spotlight will be on Campbell.

Gonzalez will play. He already mentioned he’s not negotiating during the season, so he’s not going to abandon the team if this doesn’t get done soon.

If the Pats can score early, that will put pressure on Darnold to keep up. He was struggling in the Super Bowl before they just decided to run it until the Pats defense cracked.

We will have to look at those ugly ass pajama uniforms from the Seahawks and I hope the Pats don’t join the party again with all white. I’m hoping for the silver pants.

 

[Zuma]

 

[Gumby]

…….

Vrabel coach teams have underperformed in opening games. Is it result of a small sample size or part of the extended exhibition season coaching style? No Idea.
…….

This is 2d or 3d time I read this on this board and heard some faceless twitterites broadcasted it.

I’m not from there, BUT……….SHOW ME !!
Provide some datapoints other than NEP vs Faders last year. I just don’t buy offhand that he (Vrabes) is much worse than 50-50. [ in season openers ]

 

[LightSkinSmurf]

First couple of weeks are hardest to predict. Nothing to go off of other than what everything looks like on paper and how things looked last year in certain areas. You would think the Pats would come out the more hungry team with Seattle more relaxed from the SB win but who knows really. Obviously can't fault anyone for picking Seattle to win.

 

[varjao]

While I see the Seahawks are favorites (because the're a good team and home field there is huge) I don't think the distance is so large like the SB displayed.

They were clicking on all cylinders at the right time and we had some significant injuries, and our team wasn't prepared to play 21 games, we started the season with a new coaching staff, promissing QB hoping to make a 2nd year jump (not a certainty at the time) and coming from terrible years. They overachieved.

I don't think our defense made huge improvements but on the offense, there is hope. Can't waste possessions there, the offense needs to keep getting out of the field with changes in the scoreboard.

 

[Hyped]

Things I am watching for:

- Campbell, no more 14 pressures, right?
- AVT...is he a healthy pro bowl guard?
- Wilson...the C/QB snap exchange...better be a smooth operation.
- Henderson...will he suit up?
- Reggie Gilman gonna pop some big holes for Hendy/Rham?
- Maye's new toys: Brown and Doubs.
- Jones, Ponder, and Jacas on the edges.
- Gonzo gonna play? Will we give him a new deal by then? I hope so.

I feel that if the Pats D forces Darnold to put the ball in the air more often than not AND the left side of the offensive line holds up....we can win this game.

 

[A Defiant Goose]

I think the Seahawks probably score high 20s and offense comes up just short. probably like 30-21 Seahawks with a late "dagger" field goal for them

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

I think the Seahawks probably score high 20s and offense comes up just short. probably like 30-21 Seahawks with a late "dagger" field goal for them

I'm sure Gonzo will play, and play hard.
Rookie RB taking over for a bondafide good NFL RB.
I have a hard time seeing Seattle scoring high 20s or 30 points.
Only way I could see that is if our Offense stinks and is giving the ball away, and I don't expect that, at all.

 

[JayNM]

I think our defense is not that good. Don't shoot me.

But I honestly think our D-Line is one player short from being horrible.

If Milton Williams goes down, we will be in huge trouble. I just don't see Jacas getting up to speed early this season, Landry was already slowing down last year and and Barmore, some days plays really good, but is mostly just above average. Im praying for someone to step up and I eat crow here

Spillane and Ellis are a good duo, mostly because of Spillane (I still don't trust Ellis). Let's see how it goes, this guy we got from the Lions is interesting, i kinda liked his highlights

Then there is Gonzo.... He better play. Our D takes a big step back overall without him.

 

[JayNM]

In the flip-side I am really excited about our offense.

Of course it starts with the o-line, which got swallowed by them 7 months ago. But I have a feeling that Campbell will improve a lot, and I don't know why. AVT is a underrated to me, he was a beast - when healthy - and Wilson played well most of last year, until he got hurt. Now he has 1 year experience, is back at his natural position and is healthy.

I hope Maye doesn't start the season sluggish without the Pre-season, but count me on the excited team for this offense with Brown and Doubs. Really curious to see Raridon and heck, with all our pieces, maybe even Po(o)p Douglas can shine.

Too bad for Handerson, I hope he comes back

 

[KCSVEN]

This is 2d or 3d time I read this on this board and heard some faceless twitterites broadcasted it.

I’m not from there, BUT……….SHOW ME !!
Provide some datapoints other than NEP vs Faders last year. I just don’t buy offhand that he (Vrabes) is much worse than 50-50. [ in season openers ]

Mike Vrabel has a career record of 2–5 in Week 1 opening games as an NFL head coach. He's lost 4 in a row and 3 of those were home games.
His win percentage is 32% worse when compared to the rest of the seasons games.
Again, small sample size

Season	Team	Result	Opponent
2018	Tennessee Titans	Loss (20–27)	at Miami Dolphins
2019	Tennessee Titans	Win (43–13)	at Cleveland Browns
2020	Tennessee Titans	Win (16–14)	at Denver Broncos
2021	Tennessee Titans	Loss (13–38)	vs. Arizona Cardinals
2022	Tennessee Titans	Loss (20–21)	vs. New York Giants
2023	Tennessee Titans	Loss (15–16)	at New Orleans Saints
2025	New England Patriots	Loss (13–20)	vs. Las Vegas Raider

Win Percentage Breakdown​

Game 1 win %: 28.6%
Rest of seasons (Games 2+): 60.6%

 

[SammyBlueCat]

The biggest difference factor for either team will be a healthy LS OL for the Pats (coupled with erasing whatever tell SEA was reading).

Other than the wildcard: Pats revamped- new acquired ST possibly dorking things up; I see the rest of both teams substantially similar to what they had in Feb.
- Some different faces, but substantially same quality for both teams across all their units.
- ( I guess you could say wildcard2 is if SEA RB room is hugely downgraded vs only slightly. ).
- So I would think the under is a good betting option in this one….another D -dominant matchup.

 

[KCSVEN]

Pats offense is better, but the defense will be worse at Edge.

I'm not sure if Pats are worse on the edge. Jury is out?

-Chaisson was meh. On the season overall Dremont Jones and Chaisson were pretty similar, Jones was higher rated on PFF for Pass rush and much higher rushing the passer win rate. Jones is a better run defender, is a bigger end, though Chaisson has the speed rusher style which Pats now lack. Jones is a slight upgrade IMO.

-Ponder you would think would be better in year 2, possible much better but highly unlikely he gets worse.
-Gabe Jacas is a wild card
-Landry is a wild card

Jennings is not missed. Our edge depth if Jacas sucks and Landry never comes back is an issue.

Year 2 Ponder over Year 1 Ponder and Jones over Chaisson are upgrades.
They at least have hope of having something behind the starters this year. We shall see.

 

[sb1]

Rookie RB taking over for a bondafide good NFL RB.

Price? There's talk he might not be 100%.

Week 1 really is the best time for the Pats to get this SEA game over with.

 

[jimnance]

I'm not sure if Pats are worse on the edge. Jury is out?

-Chaisson was meh. On the season overall Dremont Jones and Chaisson were pretty similar, Jones was higher rated on PFF for Pass rush and much higher rushing the passer win rate. Jones is a better run defender, is a bigger end, though Chaisson has the speed rusher style which Pats now lack. Jones is a slight upgrade IMO.

-Ponder you would think would be better in year 2, possible much better but highly unlikely he gets worse.
-Gabe Jacas is a wild card
-Landry is a wild card

Jennings is not missed. Our edge depth if Jacas sucks and Landry never comes back is an issue.

Year 2 Ponder over Year 1 Ponder and Jones over Chaisson are upgrades.
They at least have hope of having something behind the starters this year. We shall see.

I think edge is better than 2025 on one condition: Landry playing healthy. Right now, hes not. So edge is worse until hes back.
But I do agree there's hope. Jacas will be 20x better by December than he is now. So will Ponder, if nothing else just the experience gained from many more snaps.
But they need Landry this year.

 

[jimnance]

This game might come down to the final play.

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

Price? There's talk he might not be 100%.

Week 1 really is the best time for the Pats to get this SEA game over with.

Yup.
Have a hard time seeing how Seattle can score 30.

 

[Gumby]

Mike Vrabel has a career record of 2–5 in Week 1 opening games as an NFL head coach. He's lost 4 in a row and 3 of those were home games.
His win percentage is 32% worse when compared to the rest of the seasons games.
Again, small sample size

Season	Team	Result	Opponent
2018	Tennessee Titans	Loss (20–27)	at Miami Dolphins
2019	Tennessee Titans	Win (43–13)	at Cleveland Browns
2020	Tennessee Titans	Win (16–14)	at Denver Broncos
2021	Tennessee Titans	Loss (13–38)	vs. Arizona Cardinals
2022	Tennessee Titans	Loss (20–21)	vs. New York Giants
2023	Tennessee Titans	Loss (15–16)	at New Orleans Saints
2025	New England Patriots	Loss (13–20)	vs. Las Vegas Raider

Win Percentage Breakdown​

Game 1 win %: 28.6%
Rest of seasons (Games 2+): 60.6%

Ok. Thanks for research. BUT….

MY ANSWER then would be ….
- Vrabes has a 100% WIN rate in ROAD GAMES (reg season & playoffs at non-neutral sites)

How you like them apples (stats lie & liars figure). LOL…

 

[Gumby]

Thanks for this.

Amazing that everyone was blaming the rookies in aftermath and ( if true) it was old man Moses the whole time.