Patriots Early 53-Man Roster Projection 1.0

[supafly]

No I project exactly what I posted.

I don't think they want DLew anywhere close to 15o carries. Too frail.

Those 64 rushes and 283 yards last year were the most he's had in either category since entering the NFL back in 2011, so I'm going to assume somewhere around 100-110, myself.

Of course, that assumption comes with good health for him, so that's obviously the wildcard. I do think they'd like to give him a larger role if healthy, but it's hard to see 150 carries in my opinion.

 

[Doctor DDS]

With so much depth at RB and WR it seems like the perfect opportunity to start one of each on PUP and give the team some roster flexibility and some fresh legs mid season. Based off of prior injury issues the ideal candidates would be Lewis and Amendola but I am not aware of either of them being nicked up so this option is likely moot. Will be interesting to watch IR now that they've added an extra player. Pats were pretty fortunate last year and did not really use the one they had (Used it on JB just so he could practice)

 

[RobertWeathers]

Those 64 rushes and 283 yards last year were the most he's had in either category since entering the NFL back in 2011, so I'm going to assume somewhere around 100-110, myself.

Of course, that assumption comes with good health for him, so that's obviously the wildcard. I do think they'd like to give him a larger role if healthy, but it's hard to see 150 carries in my opinion.

Ok so in your model and mine....

Gillislee- 225...1100 yards
DLew- 100....450 yards
White-75- 300 yards
Burkhead- 50-200 yards

You might be right with DLew but I still think it's too many. Last two years they had him around 8-9 touches a game and with 100 carries and 50 catches that might line up but I'm skeptical.

 

[supafly]

With so much depth at RB and WR it seems like the perfect opportunity to start one of each on PUP and give the team some roster flexibility and some fresh legs mid season. Based off of prior injury issues the ideal candidates would be Lewis and Amendola but I am not aware of either of them being nicked up so this option is likely moot. Will be interesting to watch IR now that they've added an extra player. Pats were pretty fortunate last year and did not really use the one they had (Used it on JB just so he could practice)

Agreed. Some of our positional projections will be thrown right out of the window, and the options you've mentioned could change things up right from the start.

 

[supafly]

Ok so in your model and mine....

Gillislee- 225...1100 yards
DLew- 100....450 yards
White-75- 300 yards
Burkhead- 50-200 yards

You might be right with DLew but I still think it's too many. Last two years they had him around 8-9 touches a game and with 100 carries and 50 catches that might line up but I'm skeptical.

I'd have to think your projection here would be pretty close to what many of us would guess.

Not sure I'd see Lewis carrying 100x AND catching 50 passes either, so you're right in being skeptical of my 100 carry guess. I didn't factor that amount of receptions into the mix. I wonder if Lewis is going to be one of our main KR guys, if not *the* main guy?

 

[RobertWeathers]

I'd have to think your projection here would be pretty close to what many of us would guess.

Not sure I'd see Lewis carrying 100x AND catching 50 passes either, so you're right in being skeptical of my 100 carry guess. I didn't factor that amount of receptions into the mix. I wonder if Lewis is going to be one of our main KR guys, if not *the* main guy?

Right. I think they want White to be the preferred pass catching back and DLew with more runs.

However, they are paying White serious money now. They might view him for both but when at 100% I think DLew is the better runner

My guess on catches

White 60
DLew 35
Gillislee- 15
Burkhead- 15

 

[mgteich]

Absolutely. Figure 15-20 ST snaps a game and 15-35 snaps on O and he will contribute offensively.

That's a good chunk of playing time and for $3m seems reasonable

 

[mgteich]

I'm OK with $3M.

However, 15-20 ST snaps a game seems like an lot.

Absolutely. Figure 15-20 ST snaps a game and 15-35 snaps on O and he will contribute offensively.

That's a good chunk of playing time and for $3m seems reasonable

 

[captain stone]

QB (3) T.Brady, J.Garoppolo, J.Brissett
RB (5) J.White, M.Gillislee, J.Develin, R.Burkhead, D Lewis
WR (5) J.Edelman, C.Hogan, B.Cooks, D.Amendola, M.Mitchell
TE (3) R.Gronkowski, D. Allen, J.O'Shaughnessy
C (1) D.Andrews
G (4) J. Thuney. S.Mason, J. Douglas, T.Karras
T (4) N.Solder, M. Cannon, T.Garcia, C. Fleming
DE (4) T.Flowers, K.Ealy, D.Rivers, R.Ninkovich
DT (4) A. Branch, M.Brown, L.Guy, V.Valentine
ILB (3) D.Hightower, D. Harris, E.Roberts
OLB (2) K.VanNoy, T. Bates
CB (5) M.Butler, S.Gilmore, E.Rowe, C.Jones, J.Jones
SS (3) P.Chung, N. Ebner, D. Travis
FS (3) D.McCourty, D.Harmon, D. Jones
ST (4) S.Gostkowski, R.Allen, J.Cardona, M.Slater

 

[TheFlyingWedge]

I think bulkhead is going to have a hard time getting on the field, unless there are injuries.
There aren't many snaps available behind gillislee, Lewis and white. I have an extremely hard time seeing burkheaf ahead of any of those players for their roles and I don't see a 4th role.
I think special teams and a guy who steps in for any of those 3 in the event of injury his his role here.

This training camp battle is going to be intense at the RB position. He'll get on the field if he earns the right to be there but he has to outwork some solid players first.

 

[maineman209]

I would be pretty surprised if E. Roberts does not make the 53.

Great run defender. A liability in coverage. Not a significant contributor on ST.

That was last season, but it's why I think he's vulnerable to TC competition unless he shows notable development/improvement/contributions in the latter two areas.

 

[maineman209]

I think Bolden is almost guaranteed to be cut. Burkhead can bring a lot more versatility to the offense while simultaneously being able to provide what Bolden did on ST.

The toughest cut may be D.J. Foster simply due to a numbers game. We kept him around all season last year, but part of me thinks that if Belichick really thought Foster would be anything more than a serviceable all purpose (being able to run and catch) RB would we have signed Burkhead? Gillislee fills the battering ram role that was Blount's and Foster could have been had for even cheaper than Burkhead, meaning Foster must not have THAT much of an upside as we may believe.

It's extremely rare that a significant contributor on offense is also a significant contributor on ST coverage units (Bolden's ST role) - on any team, not just the Pats.

It's highly unlikely that Burkhead will do both.

As a college senior, Foster was being converted to slot-WR. He's still listed as an RB on the Pats' roster, but it's difficult to know what his role has been/will be in closed practices. While his skill set seems redundant within both the current RB group and the current WR group, he may have the potential to push for a spot, especially if he shows well as a returner.

 

[maineman209]

Agree on point #1, as between the UDFA's and rookies, another slot is needed.

But as much as I hate to think it, I suspect that Nink is the odd man out.

Nink retiring seems like a possibility.

 

[maineman209]

Why do so many people here think D. J. Foster has a better hold on a roster spot than one of our longest tenured ST aces? It certainly isn't just you, but I really don't get it. His college highlights were cool, but so were a lot of guys'.

It's not just Foster's "highlights". He was a significant contributor receiving as well as running all four years at AZ State. He's also extremely athletic.

I don't think Foster has a "better hold" on a roster spot than Bolden. I don't think Bolden is competing for "an RB spot" at all. Bolden is competing for an ST spot against an extra LB or DB and maybe against a guy like O'Shaughnessy as a 3rd TE.

I think Foster could challenge Lewis among the RBs, and/or could challenge for a WR spot, however, he has a nearly vertical hill to climb, either way.

 

[maineman209]

I think most would agree that Harris is a lock, at least for 2017. I'd put him up there with HT.

McClellin, while being a bit overpriced in my opinion, wears a lot of hats, too, so he's probably safe.

You make a good point about the competition at LB, though. I think we've improved upon that position.

I think it depends entirely on how much Harris has left in the tank and how quickly he can adapt to the Pats' defensive schemes, and how quickly the much younger, more athletic guys like Roberts, Langi and Bates develop. I wouldn't say that Harris is a lock.

 

[maineman209]

Absolutely. Figure 15-20 ST snaps a game and 15-35 snaps on O and he will contribute offensively.

That's a good chunk of playing time and for $3m seems reasonable

Highly unlikely.

During his last six games of 2016, when Burkhead became a significant contributor on offense (35 snap/game on O), his ST snaps dropped from from an average of 17/game to 10, 11, 8, 12, 0, 0. Also refer to the decline in Bolden's ST snaps when he was pressed into service as an RB in 2015.

Playing a significant role on both offense and ST coverage units at the same time just does not happen. On any team.

 

[maineman209]

Right. I think they want White to be the preferred pass catching back and DLew with more runs.

However, they are paying White serious money now. They might view him for both but when at 100% I think DLew is the better runner

My guess on catches

White 60
DLew 35
Gillislee- 15
Burkhead- 15

While I agree with projecting Gillislee to get the majority of the straight-on carries, I don't think that anyone is giving sufficient consideration to the possible effect of RB receptions of the Pats potentially running significantly more 2-RB sets in 2017, with both RBs being a threat to run or catch.

White, Lewis, Burkhead and Foster could be perfect for such pairings.

 

[Ring 6]

Ok so in your model and mine....

Gillislee- 225...1100 yards
DLew- 100....450 yards
White-75- 300 yards
Burkhead- 50-200 yards

You might be right with DLew but I still think it's too many. Last two years they had him around 8-9 touches a game and with 100 carries and 50 catches that might line up but I'm skeptical.

He had 45 carries in the last 3 games last season once he was healthy.
25 more in the 3 playoff games and that's 70 in just his last 6 games.

Roles can change and can be opponent based, but when last season ended he was getting 10-12 per game on average.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Highly unlikely.

During his last six games of 2016, when Burkhead became a significant contributor on offense (35 snap/game on O), his ST snaps dropped from from an average of 17/game to 10, 11, 8, 12, 0, 0. Also refer to the decline in Bolden's ST snaps when he was pressed into service as an RB in 2015.

Playing a significant role on both offense and ST coverage units at the same time just does not happen. On any team.

Im not going to account for every ratio of offense and STs snaps. If memory serves, at Cincy when he had around 25 or 30 snaps he had around 8-10 snaps on ST. That stands to reason he'll do the same thing here.

Clearly if he hits the 45-50 snap range he was taken out of ST.

 

[RobertWeathers]

While I agree with projecting Gillislee to get the majority of the straight-on carries, I don't think that anyone is giving sufficient consideration to the possible effect of RB receptions of the Pats potentially running significantly more 2-RB sets in 2017, with both RBs being a threat to run or catch.

White, Lewis, Burkhead and Foster could be perfect for such pairings.

I figured about 140 catches out of the backfield this year but I could easily be way off. When you do the math and account for what they have done historically, there are only a enough balls to go around.

Figure around 400 completions.
140 RBs but could be lower
80 TE but I could easily see this being lower if Gronk gets hurt.
180 WRs with JE11 and Cooks getting 60 each and MM, Hogan and DA picking up the scraps. Could easily be higher