Patriots Early 53-Man Roster Projection 1.0

[supafly]

I agree that Langi is a better linebacker for the future. I would remind us that Freely is an adequate backup now (at least in Belichick's mind). He's been injured, and this may be a non-issue. For this year, we'll have Ninkovich/Rivers on the EDGE plus Hightower, Harris, Van Noy, and Mc Clellan.

The open question is whether Belichick will require another front seven defensive STer. We've lost Mingo AND (will likely lose) Grissom. That's lots of reps. Personally, I'm not comfortable (as so many seem to be) that one just plugs in a rookie and everything will work out.

For example, I am OK with losing Bolden, if and only if Burkhead is an adequate replacement on special teams. Belichick has cut Bolden yet. I think that he is ST insurance at this point.

I still think Bolden has at least a 50/50 shot at making the team as a ST only player. At this point, I don't even consider him a 5th RB.

I think he's a wedge blocker who is on the smaller side, but didn't he look pretty good as a punt protector, too? I know Chung initially had that task back in the day, but hasn't Bolden handled that duty as well?

 

[drewskie]

I think Bolden is almost guaranteed to be cut. Burkhead can bring a lot more versatility to the offense while simultaneously being able to provide what Bolden did on ST.

The toughest cut may be D.J. Foster simply due to a numbers game. We kept him around all season last year, but part of me thinks that if Belichick really thought Foster would be anything more than a serviceable all purpose (being able to run and catch) RB would we have signed Burkhead? Gillislee fills the battering ram role that was Blount's and Foster could have been had for even cheaper than Burkhead, meaning Foster must not have THAT much of an upside as we may believe.

 

[jmt57]

Considering how much money Burkhead is being paid, can we assume he will continue to play on special teams?


Usually players making that much money are kept off ST.

 

[supafly]

I think Bolden is almost guaranteed to be cut. Burkhead can bring a lot more versatility to the offense while simultaneously being able to provide what Bolden did on ST.

It makes sense that this comparison is often made due to the position of RB, but at the same time, I also wonder if it necessarily has to be an either/or scenario?

If Bolden is half the ST player we think he is, it's at least theoretically possible that he remains with the team in that role, no matter what. He has a big responsibility on STs that some may be undervaluing a bit. The depth on RB and STs seems to have improved, and cap space does not seem to be an issue.

The questions I have would be what Bolden's and Burkhead's specific roles on STs are, how much experience may come into play, and whether or not Bolden (pretty sturdy frame that can take on multiple responsibilities) may be considered by Belichick as a "core" ST only player? Personally, I think it's 50/50, but most others already have his bags packed and out the door.

 

[mgteich]

Considering how much money Burkhead is being paid, can we assume he will continue to play on special teams?


Usually players making that much money are kept off ST.

Look at the list. Chung, McCourty, Chung and Mcclellan all play significant reps on special teams.

 

[mgteich]

Thanks!

Per Pro Football Reference:

1. ------ 359 --- 80% ---- Nate Ebner
2. ----- 323 --- 72% ----- Barkevious Mingo
3. ----- 307 --- 69% ----- Jonathan Jones
4. ----- 299 --- 67% ----- Brandon King

5. ----- 264 --- 59% ----- Brandon Bolden
6. ----- 250 --- 56% ----- Geneo Grissom

7. ----- 226 --- 50% ----- Matt Slater
8. ----- 218 ---- 49% ---- Shea McClellin
9. ----- 201 ---- 45% ----- Patrick Chung

10. ---- 153 ---- 34% ----- Alan Branch
11. ---- 151 ---- 34% ----- James Develin
12. ---- 151 ----- 34% ---- Jordan Richards
13. ---- 142 ---- 32% ---- Devin McCourty
14. ---- 125 ---- 28% ---- Duron Harmon

 

[mgteich]

The top 7 plus 12 played ST almost exclusively, although Jones is NOT a special team only player (he could be). One hopes that Richards could be more.

The following are gone or should be packing their bags according to most: Mingo, King, Bolden, Grissom, and Richards. A possible substitute (Freeny) is also expected be gone.

IMHO, we have a 14 man unit that constituted our special teams units last year (not counting punter, kicker and returners). Belichick is NOT going to replace 5 of these with rookies.

THOUGHTS
1) McClellan an almost lock, though he could be replaced by Freeny (but this isn't a STO issue, since it's either McClellan or Freeny as a LB).

2) I think that King is a lock as a STO players, as he has been.

3) Grissom's reps need to be taken up by Ealy and/or Guy.

4) Richard's reps need to be taken up by the backup SS. Ideally, the reps should increase with fewer reps for Chung. For now, it is Richards or Jones.

5) Some of Bolden's reps can be taken by Burkhead.

6) That leaves at least one more special teamer. Our choices are Bolden, Freeny, another UDFA, and someone not yet on the team. So, sure, Bolden could win that roster spot.
============
That leaves
72 Mingo
59 Bolden
56 Grissom
34 Richards

I would note that the only rookie on the ST core group was J Jones. Playing ST in college doesn't mean that someone is good enough to be on Belichick's core ST unit, similar to the case at any other position.

===========
1. ------ 359 --- 80% ---- Nate Ebner
2. ----- 323 --- 72% ----- Barkevious Mingo
3. ----- 307 --- 69% ----- Jonathan Jones
4. ----- 299 --- 67% ----- Brandon King

5. ----- 264 --- 59% ----- Brandon Bolden
6. ----- 250 --- 56% ----- Geneo Grissom

7. ----- 226 --- 50% ----- Matt Slater
8. ----- 218 ---- 49% ---- Shea McClellin
9. ----- 201 ---- 45% ----- Patrick Chung

10. ---- 153 ---- 34% ----- Alan Branch
11. ---- 151 ---- 34% ----- James Develin
12. ---- 151 ----- 34% ---- Jordan Richards
13. ---- 142 ---- 32% ---- Devin McCourty
14. ---- 125 ---- 28% ---- Duron Harmon

I still think Bolden has at least a 50/50 shot at making the team as a ST only player. At this point, I don't even consider him a 5th RB.

I think he's a wedge blocker who is on the smaller side, but didn't he look pretty good as a punt protector, too? I know Chung initially had that task back in the day, but hasn't Bolden handled that duty as well?

 

[BTTA]

The top 7 plus 12 played ST almost exclusively, although Jones is NOT a special team only player (he could be). One hopes that Richards could be more....

Great contribution MG.

 

[RxJock1120]

I have no idea what s going to happen with Elandon Roberts, some people are writing him as a Roster lock and others are saying hes a bubble guy. I have no idea but I think it seems a little silly to pencil in Harvey Langi over Roberts before training camp has even started, no matter how big his signing bonus was.

I am a firm believer that there are only 2 roster spots between Robert, McClellin and Ninko (blasphemy, I know). As Roberts showed a lot of potential as a rookie and I can't bring myself to discount Ninko, I think McClellin is the one that doesn't make the 53.

 

[BTTA]

I am a firm believer that there are only 2 roster spots between Robert, McClellin and Ninko (blasphemy, I know). As Roberts showed a lot of potential as a rookie and I can't bring myself to discount Ninko, I think McClellin is the one that doesn't make the 53.

Agree on point #1, as between the UDFA's and rookies, another slot is needed.

But as much as I hate to think it, I suspect that Nink is the odd man out.

 

[PatsBoy12]

I guess I am in the minority here, but I wouldn't be surprised if Elandon Roberts does not make the 2017 roster. Van Noy and McClellin will most likely return. With the addition of David Harris that makes four linebackers. The team's most common formation is a 4-2, which has resulted with their going with five linebackers rather than six on the 53-man roster recently. That would leave somebody to take Mingo's roster spot as a linebacker in name only, who primarily plays special teams. Roberts got almost no time on ST last year even though he was a rookie. For right now I would pencil in Harvey Langi over Roberts.

Way too early to say for sure though. Let's see them in training camp at minimum, and preferably after the joint practices and a few preseason games.

This may be an unpopular opinion, but I'd rather have Roberts make the squad than McClellin. Other than being able to jump over the line on FG and Xtra point attempts, which is now outlawed, I just don't find him impressive at all. He has been benched a few different times, including the SB, and only played as much as he did last season because the Pats jettisoned Collins.

 

[jah]

I think Bolden is almost guaranteed to be cut. Burkhead can bring a lot more versatility to the offense while simultaneously being able to provide what Bolden did on ST.

The toughest cut may be D.J. Foster simply due to a numbers game. We kept him around all season last year, but part of me thinks that if Belichick really thought Foster would be anything more than a serviceable all purpose (being able to run and catch) RB would we have signed Burkhead? Gillislee fills the battering ram role that was Blount's and Foster could have been had for even cheaper than Burkhead, meaning Foster must not have THAT much of an upside as we may believe.

Why do so many people here think D. J. Foster has a better hold on a roster spot than one of our longest tenured ST aces? It certainly isn't just you, but I really don't get it. His college highlights were cool, but so were a lot of guys'.

 

[BobDigital]

QB (3) T.Brady, J.Garoppolo, J.Brissett
RB (5) M.Gillislee, R.Burkhead, J.White, D.Lewis, J.Develin
WR (5) B.Cooks, J.Edelman, C.Hogan, M.Mitchell, D.Amendola
TE (3) R.Gronkowski, D.Allen, J.O'Shaughnessy
C (1) D.Andrews
G (4) S.Mason, J.Thuney, T.Karras, J.Douglas
T (4) N.Solder, M.Cannon, C.Fleming, T.Garcia
DE (5) T.Flowers, K.Ealy, D.Rivers, D.Wise, R.Ninkovich
DT (4) A.Branch, M.Brown, L.Guy, V.Valentine
ILB(3) D.Hightower, D.Harris, E.Roberts
OLB(2) S.McClellin, H.Langi
CB (5) M.Butler, S.Gilmore, E.Rowe, J.Jones, C.Jones
SS (3) P.Chung, N.Ebner, B.King
FS (2) D.McCourty, D.Harmon
ST (4) S.Gostkowski, R.Allen, J.Cardona, M. Slater

Total players: 53
Created with Pats Picker: Pats Picker 2016

Also..
Tough Cuts: Bolden, Van Noy, Freeney, Grissom, DJ Killings (I think some CB will emerge), Richards, Thompson (S), Foster, Waddle,

PS: Grissom - Edge , DJ Killins- CB, Foster - RB, Thompson - DB, McDermott - OT. I think all those guys make the PS or they try to get them on there.

Sadly I don't see how they keep Foster if they cut him.

 

[jmt57]

A very conservative, 'chalk' type of projection given that there are not yet any training camp practices or preseason games to base this prediction on. Much can and will change over the next seven weeks. Italics denotes players on the roster more for special teams than as a positional player.

QB (3) T.Brady, J.Garoppolo, J.Brissett
RB (5) J.White, R.Burkhead, M.Gillislee, D.Lewis, J.Develin
WR (6) B.Cooks, J.Edelman, C.Hogan, M.Mitchell, D.Amendola, M.Slater
TE (3) R.Gronkowski, D.Allen, J.O'Shaughnessy

C (1) D.Andrews
G (4) S.Mason, J.Thuney, T.Karras, J.Douglas
T (4) N.Solder, M.Cannon, T.Garcia, C.McDermott


DE (5) T.Flowers, D.Wise, K.Ealy, D.Rivers, R.Ninkovich
DT (4) M.Brown, A.Branch, V.Valentine, L.Guy

LB(5) D.Hightower, D.Harris, K.VanNoy, S.McClellin, H.Langi

CB (5) M.Butler, S.Gilmore, E.Rowe, J.Jones, C. Jones
S (5) D.McCourty, P. Chung, D.Harmon, B. King, N. Ebner


ST (3) S.Gostkowski, R.Allen, J.Cardona
ST Core (7): N. Ebner, J. Jones, B. King, J.O'Shaughnessy, M. Slater, H. Langi, L.Guy

Total players: 53
Created with Pats Picker: Pats Picker 2017

 

[mgteich]

I agree with 51.
I have Fleming over McDermott.
I have a SS (say Jones) over Douglass.
=====
I disagree with your list of 7 core ST players, but that's nitpicking. I suspect that Chung, McClellan and another (perhaps Burkhead or the backup SS) will all be more important than Langi and O'Shaugnessey. I do hope that you are right on Guy.

A very conservative, 'chalk' type of projection given that there are not yet any training camp practices or preseason games to base this prediction on. Much can and will change over the next seven weeks. Italics denotes players on the roster more for special teams than as a positional player.

QB (3) T.Brady, J.Garoppolo, J.Brissett
RB (5) J.White, R.Burkhead, M.Gillislee, D.Lewis, J.Develin
WR (6) B.Cooks, J.Edelman, C.Hogan, M.Mitchell, D.Amendola, M.Slater
TE (3) R.Gronkowski, D.Allen, J.O'Shaughnessy

C (1) D.Andrews
G (4) S.Mason, J.Thuney, T.Karras, J.Douglas
T (4) N.Solder, M.Cannon, T.Garcia, C.McDermott


DE (5) T.Flowers, D.Wise, K.Ealy, D.Rivers, R.Ninkovich
DT (4) M.Brown, A.Branch, V.Valentine, L.Guy

LB(5) D.Hightower, D.Harris, K.VanNoy, S.McClellin, H.Langi

CB (5) M.Butler, S.Gilmore, E.Rowe, J.Jones, C. Jones
S (5) D.McCourty, P. Chung, D.Harmon, B. King, N. Ebner


ST (3) S.Gostkowski, R.Allen, J.Cardona
ST Core (7): N. Ebner, J. Jones, B. King, J.O'Shaughnessy, M. Slater, H. Langi, L.Guy

Total players: 53
Created with Pats Picker: Pats Picker 2017

 

[meatface]

I am a firm believer that there are only 2 roster spots between Robert, McClellin and Ninko (blasphemy, I know). As Roberts showed a lot of potential as a rookie and I can't bring myself to discount Ninko, I think McClellin is the one that doesn't make the 53.

I have no idea but McClellin's post June 1st Dead money is only 800K

 

[supafly]

I have no idea but McClellin's post June 1st Dead money is only 800K

With a 3.3m dollar cap hit, to boot.

 

[drewskie]

It makes sense that this comparison is often made due to the position of RB, but at the same time, I also wonder if it necessarily has to be an either/or scenario?

If Bolden is half the ST player we think he is, it's at least theoretically possible that he remains with the team in that role, no matter what. He has a big responsibility on STs that some may be undervaluing a bit. The depth on RB and STs seems to have improved, and cap space does not seem to be an issue.

The questions I have would be what Bolden's and Burkhead's specific roles on STs are, how much experience may come into play, and whether or not Bolden (pretty sturdy frame that can take on multiple responsibilities) may be considered by Belichick as a "core" ST only player? Personally, I think it's 50/50, but most others already have his bags packed and out the door.

I think almost everyone agrees that Gillislee/Burkhead/Lewis/White/Develin are locks at RB.

Unless Bolden is more valuable on ST than I'm giving him credit for, wouldn't it be in the team's best interests where you have Burkhead/Foster instead of Bolden/Burkhead?

Will be interesting to see who returns kickoffs and punts this year. A lot of candidates available.

 

[supafly]

I think almost everyone agrees that Gillislee/Burkhead/Lewis/White/Develin are locks at RB.

Unless Bolden is more valuable on ST than I'm giving him credit for, wouldn't it be in the team's best interests where you have Burkhead/Foster instead of Bolden/Burkhead?

Will be interesting to see who returns kickoffs and punts this year. A lot of candidates available.

I can't imagine too many scenarios where Foster makes it, aside from injury. The big question will be whether or not another team claims him before they can get him on the PS.

I agree with you that Bolden is a long shot at the position of RB. I'm still thinking it could be 50/50 in terms of a ST spot, though. First we need a confirmation on exactly what he does, which I've never really paid close enough attention to. I want to say that he's been the punt protector at times though, so assuming that Burkhead will automatically fit that role could be faulty. I'm sure someone will watch some film and chime in. We all know about his tackling abilities and how he knocked the SD punter out of the game, etc.

The big question will be how important of a role he plays, which is why I'd have it as a toss up, myself. I no longer count him as a RB, and I'm sure BB is hoping that Burkhead can take over, but I'll need to wait until some TC reports and preseason games before coming to that conclusion. My thinking is that he could be included as one of the core ST players. We'll have to see.

 

[DarrylS]

Perhaps as a former long suffering Red Sox Fan and a former long suffering Pats fan always get uncomfortable with the "embarrassment of riches theme".. slowly getting over it, but it is such a long way back..

Some of the stuff we, as a group, to argue about such as who will be our 9th O lineman is nice luxury... most NFL fans do not enjoy that luxury.