Patriots about to make a BIG mistake?

[Jim Beankie]

Just not as well as Maye.

In the eye of the beholder...

Stats versus Top 25 teams over their last 2 years (avg per game):

Drake Maye
1-3 56% 250yds 2.3TD 1INT (avg rank #18)

Jayden Daniels
3-5 68.8% 272yds 2TD 0.4INT (avg rank #10)

Bo Nix
7-5 71.7% 284yds 2.4TD 0.4INT (avg rank #13)

 

[Steve102]

There are great examples on both sides of that, but one thing they all have in common is that they still needed to play to improve. Brady spent more than a year watching Bledsoe and assorted videos but it still took him time on the field.
Manning struggled for a year on the field from the start.

I don't care how long he sits, he's going to struggle. They all do. Let's just not get him killed in the process.

 

[Steve102]

In the eye of the beholder...

Stats versus Top 25 teams over their last 2 years (avg per game):

Drake Maye
1-3 56% 250yds 2.3TD 1INT

Jayden Daniels
3-5 68.8% 272yds 2TD 0.4INT

Bo Nix
7-5 71.7% 284yds 2.4TD 0.4INT

Yeah, I was all in on Nix. That may prove to be the steal of the draft.

 

[Ring 6]

I agree, but 12 games should be enough for a rookie [more than that is a very long season for a rookie].

So people are trying to sell me this idea that the patriots decided they couldn’t win the year so they ingeniously didn’t spend money so they have more to spend next year and win (even though players they sign this year will be here next year). So why would you want NEXT year to “be a long year” for the qb?

 

[Jim Beankie]

Yeah, I was all in on Nix. That may prove to be the steal of the draft.

The thing that impressed me about Nix was how much he had matured over his 5 years. Maye may hopefully be one of those precocious born leader types, but the kid's only 21. Those leadership skills will more than likely take time to develop.

 

[50-yard-line]

Beware the Small Sample Size.

Mac Jones had a great pre-season game! Jacksonville should trade Lawrence!

It'll be two-three years before we know about Maye, Milton. Patience. My feeling is to let the vet play until the OL and WRs are settled. THat's why Brissett was brought in.

 

[KCSVEN]

In the eye of the beholder...

Stats versus Top 25 teams over their last 2 years (avg per game):

Drake Maye
1-3 56% 250yds 2.3TD 1INT (avg rank #18)

Jayden Daniels
3-5 68.8% 272yds 2TD 0.4INT (avg rank #10)

Bo Nix
7-5 71.7% 284yds 2.4TD 0.4INT (avg rank #13)

OMG, with the stats, LOL. Check Mac Jones Stats, Check Zach Wilson, Bryce Young etc. what has that got to do with playing QB in the NFL?

Watch Tape, watch every throw, grade very throw.

Mahomes was 14th in QB rating last year, please tell me which if the 13 ahead of him you would trade him straight up for? But the STATS!

If you are going to use only stats at least use stats that translate to NFL success, somewhat, such as attached

 

[pats99]

Drake Maye 4 year contact is worth 60 million dollars, all fully guaranteed. The pats have arguably the worst offensive line in the league. 2024 rankings consistently have the pats in the bottom 5. All we need is one whiff by one of those o-linemen and thats it. Yeah I know that can happen behind any o-line, but lets just say that a good o-line goes a long way in protecting your quarterback.

Instead of commiting now to a starting quarterback why not just wait and see what the o-line looks like in a real game, playing against starters instead of a meaningless pre-season game against backups and vanilla looks (Elliot Wolf ??). I am ok if the receivers are even average, but the o-line has to be at least capable of keeping their 3rd overall pick upright.

All of that, we must know now if the patriots are going to start Maye, thats just the media looking for stuff to talk about. The fact of the matter is that Brisset is not going to continue to start regardless of how he plays. If he starts throwing a bunch of picks in consecutive games, he is going to get pulled. That also goes for Drake Maye by the way. Pats fanbase won't stand for that. Ask Cam Newton.

 

[Grogan14]

In the eye of the beholder...

Stats versus Top 25 teams over their last 2 years (avg per game):

Drake Maye
1-3 56% 250yds 2.3TD 1INT (avg rank #18)

Jayden Daniels
3-5 68.8% 272yds 2TD 0.4INT (avg rank #10)

Bo Nix
7-5 71.7% 284yds 2.4TD 0.4INT (avg rank #13)

Ridiculously small sample size. Meaningles BUT Maye is least experienced of the three

 

[Ring 6]

I don't care how long he sits, he's going to struggle. They all do. Let's just not get him killed in the process.

I can guarantee you he will not die from playing football.

 

[Ring 6]

In the eye of the beholder...

Stats versus Top 25 teams over their last 2 years (avg per game):

Drake Maye
1-3 56% 250yds 2.3TD 1INT (avg rank #18)

Jayden Daniels
3-5 68.8% 272yds 2TD 0.4INT (avg rank #10)

Bo Nix
7-5 71.7% 284yds 2.4TD 0.4INT (avg rank #13)

And who played on a better team?

 

[Jim Beankie]

OMG, with the stats, LOL. Check Mac Jones Stats, Check Zach Wilson, Bryce Young etc. what has that got to do with playing QB in the NFL?

Watch Tape, watch every throw, grade very throw.

Mahomes was 14th in QB rating last year, please tell me which if the 13 ahead of him you would trade him straight up for? But the STATS!

If you are going to use only stats at least use stats that translate to NFL success, somewhat, such as attached

Thanks for providing that spreadsheet with the additional helpful stats. I understand you had watched Maye's every throw. I only got to watch about a third of his snaps from last year, but focused on bad games and Top 25 teams, so I saw a lot of bad, especially both Clemson games (with 1 game when Clemson was unranked) when he had to face an actual NFL caliber CB. Side note, the only prospect whose every snap I watched was Milton.

As you obv know, there are stats and then there are relevant stats. As we all know Top 25 teams mean better competition, and the higher the ranking the more difficult, in general. It's the same reason people poo poo preseason stats against basic defenses with future insurance salesman. It's why I loathe watching scripted Pro Days (and even then he had a bunch of Tebows). It's also why I take 7v7 stats with a grain of salt when one can have a completion count even though it took over 4 seconds TimeToThrow.

Quick scan, Zach was not good against Top 25. Bryce did very well, but he's only played 1 NFL season, so it's too early to tell. As for Mac, I remember after watching just 1 game (vs Trask in Florida) I just didn't like him and would've wanted him in the 3rd Rd at best. Time to throw in general was astronomical with wide open receivers, and his responses to the little pressure he did face was telling, especially this random sack in the championship game. That being said, he was runner up OROY, so he was good. I personally think he can play QB, but the old pre-NFLnickname "MacEnroe" (his temperament) told me he was a head case.

That being said, to your point, I did post the below as well when I originally posted the above stats last Dec, although it does tell me that Mahomes, even though he wasn't as accurate nor careful with the ball as one would like, had plenty of experience facing good teams and could build on that experience. Maye's only faced 4. If it were up to me, he wouldn't start at least the 1st quarter of the season, but I'd want him to play at least a few series each game starting Week 1 (similar to preseason action), but that's just too out of the ordinary.

Patrick Mahomes (last 2 years - 12 total games in his college career vs Top 25 teams)
0-8 61.3% 411yds 2.9TD 1.4INT (avg rank 13)

 

[KCSVEN]

Patrick Mahomes (last 2 years - 12 total games in his college career vs Top 25 teams)
0-8 61.3% 411yds 2.9TD 1.4INT (avg rank 13)

I think my issue with that approach is the great QB on crappy teams will almost always rate worse than the crap QB on a great team, so to me it's hard to put much value in it. I also just don't see any correlation between those stats and NFL success.

Maye's sample size is so small, if I remember when I looked at that previously it's like he had 3 good games, and an OK game out of the 4, The stats did not line up with the tape.

I don't think people realize how bad the UNC team was last year. I think the bowl game Maye did not play was indicative of how much Maye with a bad ankle, carried the team, as opposed to USC offense running it up without Willliams.

A VERY high % of throws Maye made was into a tight window, not the same for Daniels, Nix, Williams etc.

 

[Jim Beankie]

And who played on a better team?

UNC was ranked as high as #10 before they imploded. LSU was never that high. Oregon was marginally better.

That being said, new information to me explained the decline, as (you may have heard me say this) that Maye got an ankle injury around his 1st loss (could barely walk in practice), played with a sore ankle for 4 weeks only to injure it even more during the season finale. Partially explains the Zappe-like 2-4 finish against weak teams. With that injury history, sure, why not baptize by fire. What's the worst that can happen?

 

[Jim Beankie]

I think my issue with that approach is the great QB on crappy teams will almost always rate worse than the crap QB on a great team, so to me it's hard to put much value in it. I also just don't see any correlation between those stats and NFL success.

Maye's sample size is so small, if I remember when I looked at that previously it's like he had 3 good games, and an OK game out of the 4, The stats did not line up with the tape.

I don't think people realize how bad the UNC team was last year. I think the bowl game Maye did not play was indicative of how much Maye with a bad ankle, carried the team, as opposed to USC offense running it up without Willliams.

A VERY high % of throws Maye made was into a tight window, not the same for Daniels, Nix, Williams etc.

It's tough. I wish in retrospect I knew about Maye's injuries because I would've adjusted my perception/expectations back then watching him, although I'm fairly sure he wasn't technically injured for last year's Clemson game based on timelines. It also explains why he was a pinch extra surly (yet professional) during the NC State press conference.

Watching his games the 2nd half of last season was like watching the Pats last year. When they actually had time, they could make an accurate throw most of the time, but when an accurate throw was made, it was dropped. I do acknowledge I saw a fair number of drops by UNC receivers (not as much as TEN for Milton - yikes!).

 

[Ring 6]

UNC was ranked as high as #10 before they imploded. LSU was never that high. Oregon was marginally better.

That being said, new information to me explained the decline, as (you may have heard me say this) that Maye got an ankle injury around his 1st loss (could barely walk in practice), played with a sore ankle for 4 weeks only to injure it even more during the season finale. Partially explains the Zappe-like 2-4 finish against weak teams. With that injury history, sure, why not baptize by fire. What's the worst that can happen?

Odd way of answering which player was surrounded by a better team.

 

[Jim Beankie]

I think my issue with that approach is the great QB on crappy teams will almost always rate worse than the crap QB on a great team, so to me it's hard to put much value in it. I also just don't see any correlation between those stats and NFL success.

Maye's sample size is so small, if I remember when I looked at that previously it's like he had 3 good games, and an OK game out of the 4, The stats did not line up with the tape.

I don't think people realize how bad the UNC team was last year. I think the bowl game Maye did not play was indicative of how much Maye with a bad ankle, carried the team, as opposed to USC offense running it up without Willliams.

A VERY high % of throws Maye made was into a tight window, not the same for Daniels, Nix, Williams etc.

Yeah, I'm just basically saying that Maye had little experience against quality teams, and when he did play, it was relatively poorly on average. Even Purdy played 9 games (17 total in his college career) vs Top 25 teams with the same 1NT avg per game the last 2 seasons, but at least there was more experience.

 

[Jim Beankie]

Odd way of answering which player was surrounded by a better team.

It's all perception, isn't it? Who played against much worse teams on average?

Edit: LSU had a worse defense in a lot of main categories, surprisingly. Did not expect that. Then again, they never ranked as high as UNC did at their respective peaks.

Edit2: Wow UNC Defense was #6 in Opponent Red Zone scoring at 73.58%. LSU was #125 at 92.31%. Woof!! Oregon was #60 at 82.93%.

Edit3: Forgot that Maye had a BEAST at RB in Omarion Hampton, imho better than any RBs on the other teams (closest was 4th Rd pick Bucky Irving).

Edit4: As it stands, in the last 2 years, Maye played with the best NFL WR by far who's taken snaps at the next level, and that's JDowns (68rec 771yds 2TD his rookie year). Oregon nope. LSU Boutte. Obv, I expect that to completely change with Nabers, BThomas, TFranklin, but they might all suck at the next level (very doubtful). That also applies to UNC's DWalker who was taken in the 4th.

 

[Spiral]

Looking at the schedule for first six games: @ Cin, Sea, @ Jets, @ SF, Mia, Hou. They may be 1-5 no matter who the QB is. What's the rush with Maye?

 

[KCSVEN]

It's tough. I wish in retrospect I knew about Maye's injuries because I would've adjusted my perception/expectations back then watching him, although I'm fairly sure he wasn't technically injured for last year's Clemson game based on timelines. It also explains why he was a pinch extra surly (yet professional) during the NC State press conference.

Tough to tell, got hurt at Pitt, Sept 23, he could barely walk at practice before the Oct 21 game, and injured it more in the last game vs NC State Nov 25. It seems it bothered him all year, just to what degree for what game is unclear.