OT: Will the Cardinals go 17-0?

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Here’s another good site. Very basic input…putting in 16 for trials (games) and .50 for probability (say it’s an average NFL team with average schedule.)

So there’s only a 20% chance an average team will win exactly 8 games and an 80% chance the team’s record won’t reflect its actual strength...roughly 50% chance the team’s strength will be 2+ games better or worse than its record indicates.

Binomial distribution (chart) Calculator

Calculates a table of the probability mass function, or lower or upper cumulative distribution function of the Binomial distribution, and draws the chart.

keisan.casio.com

 

[NormZauchin]

0.18530201888...thanx for re-educating my memory bank to where it was 50 years ago. I got an A in stats but I can't remember the difference between mean, median and mode if you sat me down with my eyelids clipped open and showed me repeatedly.

I can appreciate where you're coming from. I did a lot of math and stats in my career, but after being retired for ten years, much of that knowledge is receding at warp speed.

 

[rochrist]

All that sort of stuff is use it or lose it. The upside is that it comes back quite quickly if you start using it again.

 

[50-yard-line]

It definitely is an accomplishment worth recognizing. As to it never happening, the 2009 Colts were within a Bill Polian intervention away from achieving that record. (Poor Peyton, the look on his face was priceless. The only time I felt sympathy for him). It could happen again. I have a feeling Brady has set his sights on achieving a unbeaten season with a SB victory, although he is fast running out of time.

I think he's out of time now. This would have been the year, and even so, everything would have had to go perfectly - I really thought they might have the best chance at it since the Patriots/Colts runs - still can't believe the Colts punting on that historic opportunity...just...can't...believe...it. They lost to the Jets and the Bills, a pair of middling (t best) teams. They would have faced the Saints undefeated.

As for Tampa, they'll have a hard time keeping that team together much longer. They've already crippled future cap and have some big players coming up on paydays.

 

[sb1]

I think he's out of time now. This would have been the year, and even so, everything would have had to go perfectly - I really thought they might have the best chance at it since the Patriots/Colts runs - still can't believe the Colts punting on that historic opportunity...just...can't...believe...it. They lost to the Jets and the Bills, a pair of middling (t best) teams. They would have faced the Saints undefeated.

As for Tampa, they'll have a hard time keeping that team together much longer. They've already crippled future cap and have some big players coming up on paydays.

I think this was the year if Brady’s Bucs were going to do it. Thought they would pull it off.

I think 19-1 is very doable for them in the meantime. Their schedule other than the Bills game and maybe Saints in NO is cake.

 

[1960Pats]

Man the old NFL Primetime music takes me back to being a kid. My best friend and I would watch the Patriots game and then usually the Giants game on at 4 and then NFL Primetime every Sunday with a few games of kill the carrier with the neighborhood kids outside wedged in between. I used to love Chris Berman's nicknames and his loud "WOOOOOP" and Bills circling the wagons and all that. I miss those days.

I also enjoyed Berman's schtick, but to go back to my childhood I'd have to listen to a **** Tracy radio broadcast.

Speaking of Berman, I used to see him a lot while I worked the golf range at a pro-am and he has, without a doubt, the worst golf swing by far of anyone I've ever seen there.

 

[1960Pats]

Kyler Murray loves running out of the pocket and it’s clear why. He can’t see in the pocket.

I think Flutie said he liked moving around or out of the pocket because of this.

Flutie got criticized for his lack of height. Murray never will.

 

[203Pat]

Flutie got criticized for his lack of height. Murray never will.

I always wonder how Flutie would have fared in today's NFL.

 

[1960Pats]

I think he's out of time now. This would have been the year, and even so, everything would have had to go perfectly - I really thought they might have the best chance at it since the Patriots/Colts runs - still can't believe the Colts punting on that historic opportunity...just...can't...believe...it. They lost to the Jets and the Bills, a pair of middling (t best) teams. They would have faced the Saints undefeated.

As for Tampa, they'll have a hard time keeping that team together much longer. They've already crippled future cap and have some big players coming up on paydays.

I can still see the stunned faces of Jeff Saturday and PEDton Manning when they found out that they were not going to be allowed to go for the perfect season. They knew that they had a golden opportunity with two games left. I almost felt bad for them but was glad that Polian didn't have the balls to go for it.

And then when it came time to defend such a ****y move by an NYFL team, Bill Polian uses the Pats 30 second miss a couple of years before as his reason. To me that's as yellow as doing it in the first place. Btw, yellow is the color of the jacket Polian received from the HOF so it seems like a perfect fit.

Nobody will ever go undefeated again and even the team that did it, Shula's Dolphins*, got there by cheating.

 

[1960Pats]

I can appreciate where you're coming from. I did a lot of math and stats in my career, but after being retired for ten years, much of that knowledge is receding at warp speed.

I think I might have enjoyed a career in math. I had an incredible math teacher in 9th and 10th grade who got me heading in the right direction. He had a way of forcing everyone to do their homework every night because he'd embarrass the heck out of anyone who didn't. Even the toughest cases would succumb to his methods.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Given the recent Eagles thread, I thought I'd bump this. The Cardinals finished 11-6 followed by an epic meltdown against the Rams.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

Nice thread

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Interesting the last 2 teams we did this thread for didn’t win a playoff game. This and Steelers in 2020. Lets see what happens with philly!

 

[1960Pats]

Interesting the last 2 teams we did this thread for didn’t win a playoff game. This and Steelers in 2020. Lets see what happens with philly!

I still don't think it's going to happen but I'm coming around to the 17-0 idea now because of the extremely easy schedule that Philly has left. It looks like the NFCE is strong but some of that could be about their soft schedule.

 

[1960Pats]

Here’s another good site. Very basic input…putting in 16 for trials (games) and .50 for probability (say it’s an average NFL team with average schedule.)

So there’s only a 20% chance an average team will win exactly 8 games and an 80% chance the team’s record won’t reflect its actual strength...roughly 50% chance the team’s strength will be 2+ games better or worse than its record indicates.

View attachment 37054

Binomial distribution (chart) Calculator

Calculates a table of the probability mass function, or lower or upper cumulative distribution function of the Binomial distribution, and draws the chart.

keisan.casio.com

The schedules are always unbalanced but are normally more even than they are this year. The AFCS has the worst total rankings that I can remember and the AFCE one of the best, especially this late in the season.

 

[Rob0729]

I still don't think it's going to happen but I'm coming around to the 17-0 idea now because of the extremely easy schedule that Philly has left. It looks like the NFCE is strong but some of that could be about their soft schedule.

They still have the Cowboys, Giants, and Titans on their schedule. Those teams all are good.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I still don't think it's going to happen but I'm coming around to the 17-0 idea now because of the extremely easy schedule that Philly has left. It looks like the NFCE is strong but some of that could be about their soft schedule.

Doesnt have to be a good team to do it really. Remember it was the bad commanders team who beat pitt 2 years ago. It was a bad chiefs team in 2011 that stopped the packers streak. Eventually the pressure catches up no matter what the schedule looks like. Nobody’s going 17-0 in todays nfl unless its a historically dominant team and philly is not that

 

[1960Pats]

Doesnt have to be a good team to do it really. Remember it was the bad commanders team who beat pitt 2 years ago. It was a bad chiefs team in 2011 that stopped the packers streak. Eventually the pressure catches up no matter what the schedule looks like. Nobody’s going 17-0 in todays nfl unless its a historically dominant team and philly is not that

I remember that pressure and also the discussions of going for 16-0 that occurred, but I was an AOLe back then.
If the situation came up again for the Pats I'd hope to see them go for it and not run away from it like Indy did in 09. Of course I'd want a different ending.

 

[farn]

Interesting the last 2 teams we did this thread for didn’t win a playoff game. This and Steelers in 2020. Lets see what happens with philly!

I wouldn’t be shocked to see them lose a few during the season & get bumped in their first playoff game. Not saying ‘I believe’ but wouldn’t be all that surprised.

 

[jah]

I wouldn’t be shocked to see them lose a few during the season & get bumped in their first playoff game. Not saying ‘I believe’ but wouldn’t be all that surprised.

I definitely don't see them winning it all this year because Hurts hasn't been in those situations before and isn't a Mahomes level talent who can carry the team. I could see them making it all the way to the Super Bowl, though.

Hard to really imagine any NFC team winning the Super Bowl this year tbh, or anyone besides the Bills or Chiefs.