All 22 review of Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams.
After watching 100's of hours of tape on the college QB's before the draft I had certain conclusions/opinions. I then watch the exhibition games to see if these things I learned translate to the NFL. Amazingly, so far it absolutely has. I think I realize the scouts tend to put a ton of emphasis on things QB's do well. Where they fail is analyzing the things they do poorly. A top prospect QB with bad lower body mechanics will complete the open passes, a top prospect with great mechanics will have bad mechanics when pressured but still make the open throws. Who cares about lower body mechanics? Nobody should, 1-its fixable and 2 they are a 1st round pick so they've obviously shown it doesn't matter much to success. Scouts focus on something like that but ignore the actual negatives that will prevent them from becoming great NFL QB's. Since Maye/Daniels/Williams will be compared their entire career I figured I'd scout them all during the season.
Without further ado 2 Cases in Point:
Jayden Daniels
Weakness in college: Doesn't see the whole field, a first read and run thrower, incredibly bad short throws, missed more short throws more than any top prospect I've ever seen, elite runner, nice looking deep ball, inconsistent accuracy with it.
My draft conclusion: May be the best rookie QB, due to elite running but once teams realize he can't process or throw over middle, he'll disappoint and won't ever be a top 15 QB. Should not have been a first rounder.
His very first pass is a dump off screen pass to the running back, wide open at the line of scrimmage, sails the ball 5 yards over his head-just like in college.
Next throw a perfect deep ball, probably should have been knocked down but might be the best deep ball you'll see all year from anyone, perfect dime dropped in. Which he did in college on several balls, just didn't do it consistently. No QB will make THAT throw consistently.
Went to Twitter/X today, typed Jayden Daniels, every tweet was the great throw, not a single tweet where he missed a wide open guy 5 yards in front of him by 5 yards. Which is going to have more effect on success, the ability to occasionally drop a dime or the inability to complete easy passes? Would that pass mean much if he did not have that issue in college? Nope, but he did have that issue.
He had 1 other short throw to the right flat where he led the guy into the tackle, I think he threw it where he wanted, maybe, because Maybe the play was called so the blocker pushed the DB outside, instead the DB went inside, and Daniels led the receiver inside instead of outside. So it was accurate and a bad decision or inaccurate and a good decision. Either way, 2 short passes, 2 failures, 1 his fault, 1 maybe not.
His last play was easy TD run.
His issues in college:
couldn't read the field: Made no throws past first read
Incredibly bad accuracy on short throws: Happened right away
Refused throws over the middle due to arm strength issues: Never had the chance
Deep Ball was inconsistent on accuracy but threw a beautiful looking deep ball: 1 for 1 on deep ball, can't judge consistency on that, see how he does with more reps.
Elite Runner but takes too many hits: No plays where that applied
Conclusion: So far looks like he did in college, we will see when he gets more reps and if he has gotten any better
Caleb Williams
Weakness in college: Hates pressure, afraid to get hit, won't take tighter window throws often, prefers to run until someone is more open.
Strengths: When he has time to throw has great, almost perfect mechanics, good arm strength, definitely goes to multiple reads as he runs around forever but bad decision making causes him to run around forever.
My draft conclusion: Will be a Trevor Lawrence level of franchise QB you always think is going to be better. May flop if can't get over complete fear of getting hit. Size issues will make it harder for him in the pocket in NFL but great playmaking should offset. Good prospect, not great but has a good receiver, a good line, in a nice spot, and replacing Fields who was terrible. Would be MVP candidate on 49ers, but there are 15 Qb's would be MVP's on the 49ers. At least he is one of them.
Sneak Preview: Everything from college translated to his first exhibition game. What you see on Twitter/X is his throw to Kmet, you don't see the almost pick 6 out of the end zone.
Very first pass play: he had WR for a couple yards open over middle, was second read, did a good job coming off first read, looked right at wr, saw was only going to be a 2 yard gain so NAH, TIME TO RUN AROUND! He also had a wr open 15 yards downfield but never got to that read and would have had to make a nice touch pass. Was already bailing by that time despite no pressure took off right, caused Lineman to hold, 10 yard penalty, and threw ball away out of bounds. The Caleb Williams Experience all on his first pass!
Pass number 2 is what scouts point to: Drop back, looks to 1st read, comes off, 2nd read is comeback at the sticks on a 20 yard rope, unlike Reagor on Maye's pass the receiver runs toward line of scrimmage to catch ball. Good read, NFL caliber throw, great protection. Fields doesn't make that play, Bears are already better! He had a huge lane to throw in but still did not step into the ball afraid of the one guy being blocked, his feet are parallel on the field, not facing where he is throwing but doesn't matter due to the arm and upper body mechanics.
3rd pass cute little shuffle pass screen. With the little flair people love about Williams and his "playmaking". Fields makes this pass as does every QB in the NFL. This goes for 50 yards because the play design is perfection, kudos to the play designer on this 1. That same OC gets to red zone and decides "let's practice 3 run plays and kick the FG?"
Next series starts inside the 5 and panicky Caleb Williams shows up. He gets bailed out on a illegal contact penalty but look where he decides to throw, DB knocks down a possible pick 6 right in his hands:
Also look at his mechanics as he throws, again afraid of pressure, that really is not that close, feet the wrong way AGAIN. He has the best mechanics as long as he's throwing in a Pro Day type setting but rarely in a game, but he was lauded as a top prospect partly due to his mechanics. Hmmmm? Something not right?
He follows with and easy roll out dump pass.
Then comes the Kmet pass, rolling to right, one defender chasing, off balance (what else right!) ball travels 30 yards, good velocity, slightly behind receiver, almost enough to close the 5-yard separation he had but not quite, great looking throw. Fields maybe makes the throw but probably sails it 5 yards to high. Not anywhere near the level of Jayden Daniels throw but a good throw.
Next throw, solid quick out, dropped. Easy first read, made the throw.
His next play, good scramble, and slides feet first, don't have to teach him that, fear of being hit will make him do that naturally! Does look like he made the correct play to run.
Next play is why the Scouts love "Williams the playmaker."
Nobody around him on a play action bootleg but still doesn't take any time to get set, this is what he does. He makes a PERFECT throw to the crosser, that is dropped. This is actually really EXCELLENT on the throw mechanics , but NOBODY would suggest you do this in the pocket, again lower body mechanics are just a stupid thing to knock a top prospect for. This IS PATRICK MAHOMES, just less arm strength. This is why he's compared to Mahomes. This is why he should be a second contract franchise QB, but the other things are why he may never go above Trevor Lawrence level.
Now onto the weird decision making of Caleb Williams, the fear of throwing over the lineman and staying in the pocket. He drops back, first read to left is covered, comes back to middle, stares at the guy at the goal line. Why does he not throw? The DL being blocked scares him, so he does not want to step into the throw and not sure if he has the arm strength without stepping into it to get it there
Instead, he starts to roll right to feel comfortable, though you see the rusher is still blocked but now it is too late, there is a CB and WR just visible at the 5-yard line and the CB can come off and cover the TD that was available so now he throws it out of bounds out of the back of the end zone.
That's it for Williams. Absolutely petrified in college to get hit, had ZERO throws while being hit last year. Has issues seeing and throwing over lineman due to shorter stature so runs out of pocket way too much and too early but has Mahomes-like play making when he does this but with a less powerful arm than Mahomes.
He will make highlight plays, he'll extend plays, will he overcome his poor pocket presence, his fear of the rush?
