OT: Official 2020 Tompa Bay Gronkaneers Thread

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I’ve become convinced by the actions of both the Bucs and the Saints that the restrictions of the cap are not nearly as debilitating as we’ve been led to believe for the last 20 years.

The multiple player contracts with multiple voidable years in order to create cap space has never been used to this extreme previously. It's a strategy to circumvent the issue with the cap not rising as expected this year, due to lower than anticipated revenues.

In my opinion it is a smart maneuver by Tampa Bay, in order to maximize an opportunity for more championships that has a relatively short window.

New Orleans leveraging the future does not make sense to me though. They are maybe a nine-win team, a borderline top-ten NFL at best. To me they would have been better off bottoming out and regrouping for 2022, rather than continuing to charge on their credit card. The Saints kicked the can down the road by restructuring $52 million in contracts, cap money that is being diverted for a year or two. Even with that they still had to release, trade or not re-sign eight players in order to save another $40 million on the cap. The salary cap had real consequences for them this offseason.

Pittsburgh is another team that used voidable years to get under the cap, yet still lost multiple players due to the cap.


If the cap increases dramatically the next couple years then teams using voidable years will have won that bet; if not then their situations will be even worse than it was before. While the NFL did sign big broadcasting rights contracts recently, last year's revenue shortfall will still be spread out over two more seasons.

Using voidable years to lower the current cap just seems like a very risky business strategy to me. And even if the cap goes up enough that a team can cover next year's cap acceleration, it will still give them fewer cap dollars to spend in 2022 than a team that did not use this tactic. That in turn will mean said club has less money to re-sign their own players than other teams, and less money to sign other free agents.

The Saints are an extreme case. They've kicked cap hits down the road so much that the only cap era comparison might be the Saints in the mid-2010s, when their can kicking from previous years did indeed catch up to them and made them a 7-win team despite having prime Brees. They did the same thing again, and I think they were smart to do it even if it didn't work out. They put some super teams on the field for the last four seasons, but Brees wasn't what he used to be and it cost them down the stretch. At this point, I think they almost have no choice but to ride it out. They still have a really competitive roster - maybe the best of the league not including QB - and blowing it all up might not be their best move if they can keep it together one more year and pray that either Winston, Hill, or perhaps a surprise draft pick can lead them to another playoff run. They will be blowing it all up soon, though.

The Bucs are just getting started. They still have cap flexibility for next year, since going into this offseason they had almost zero liability in dead money or bad contracts. I see no reason they can't keep the team in tact at least for 2022 and maybe beyond, and even add another star player or two next year. You have a lot of leeway when you just had four home run drafts in a row, an elite QB at an affordable price, and haven't overpaid for anyone on the roster yet.

 

[Deus Irae]

If the cap increases dramatically the next couple years then teams using voidable years will have won that bet; if not then their situations will be even worse than it was before. While the NFL did sign big broadcasting rights contracts recently, last year's revenue shortfall will still be spread out over two more seasons.

From what I've read, the expectation is that next year will have a pretty big jump, and then the following season will be when the new money comes in and the cap has the potential to (at least sort of) skyrocket.

 

[Deus Irae]

The Bucs are just getting started. They still have cap flexibility for next year, since going into this offseason they had almost zero liability in dead money or bad contracts. I see no reason they can't keep the team in tact at least for 2022 and maybe beyond, and even add another star player or two next year. You have a lot of leeway when you just had four home run drafts in a row, an elite QB at an affordable price, and haven't overpaid for anyone on the roster yet.

And, while it may not be the draft approach that most pleases the fans, the Bucs could also just focus on replacements for the young guys who have contracts coming up. For example, if they don't think Carlton Davis is going to be worth his asking price, there should be still be quality CB prospects available at #32.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Belichick really needs to replace the guys around him. It's embarassing just how bad their personnel department has become.

Yes having 3 John Carroll roommates here giving some low-IQ DIII football advice or doing talent evaluation, has been wrecking this franchise for the last 7 years. And now our core guys from 2009-2012 are aging or leaving/retiring. They should elevate Eliot Wolf from consultant to full time front office guy, he can help Belichick. The last time Belichick drafted great he had guys like Floyd Reese giving him a different voice.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Yes having 3 John Carroll roommates here giving some low-IQ DIII football advice or doing talent evaluation, has been wrecking this franchise for the last 7 years. And now our core guys from 2009-2012 are aging or leaving/retiring. They should elevate Eliot Wolf from consultant to full time front office guy, he can help Belichick. The last time Belichick drafted great he had guys like Floyd Reese giving him a different voice.

With this FA and Kraft's comments being any indication, I'm gaining confidence that we'll see a different type of draft his year.

 

[Deus Irae]

Yes having 3 John Carroll roommates here giving some low-IQ DIII football advice or doing talent evaluation, has been wrecking this franchise for the last 7 years. And now our core guys from 2009-2012 are aging or leaving/retiring. They should elevate Eliot Wolf from consultant to full time front office guy, he can help Belichick. The last time Belichick drafted great he had guys like Floyd Reese giving him a different voice.

Dude, you need to take your lame-ass trolling to school, and get some lessons on how to do it better. And you can start by becoming more than just a one trick pony.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Yes having 3 John Carroll roommates here giving some low-IQ DIII football advice or doing talent evaluation, has been wrecking this franchise for the last 7 years. And now our core guys from 2009-2012 are aging or leaving/retiring. They should elevate Eliot Wolf from consultant to full time front office guy, he can help Belichick. The last time Belichick drafted great he had guys like Floyd Reese giving him a different voice.

I think Belichick needs to be challenged by guys who haven't been his underlings for the last twenty years. This is true of every great CEO or leader.

When Scott Pioli left in 2009, it was after their drafts had been fairly barren since his glory days of 2000-04.

I just can't imagine that it's coincidental that Reese was there from 2009-12, and during his time, they drafted Edelman, Chung, Vollmer, Gronkowski, Hernandez, McCourty, Solder, Vereen, Cannon, Hightower, Jones, and Ebner. That's basically the entire core off the 2010s dynasty besides Brady. When Reese left in 2013, the drafting results dramatically regressed again.

If it's a coincidence, it's a damn big one. I'm sure there's quite a bit of luck involved, as it's the draft, but we're also looking at some pretty big sample size periods with Pioli, Reese, and Caserio being the main guys in charge. I just think it's a bad idea for any organization to lack opposition voices; and I don't mean that no one constructively challenges Belichick or Caserio; I mean that they have all been influenced by Belichick so much that it's really hard to actually think outside the box when you were educated in the box.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

I think Belichick needs to be challenged by guys who haven't been his underlings for the last twenty years. This is true of every great CEO or leader.

When Scott Pioli left in 2009, it was after their drafts had been fairly barren since his glory days of 2000-04.

I just can't imagine that it's coincidental that Reese was there from 2009-12, and during his time, they drafted Edelman, Chung, Vollmer, Gronkowski, Hernandez, McCourty, Solder, Vereen, Cannon, Hightower, Jones, and Ebner. That's basically the entire core off the 2010s dynasty besides Brady. When Reese left in 2013, the drafting results dramatically regressed again.

If it's a coincidence, it's a damn big one. I'm sure there's quite a bit of luck involved, as it's the draft, but we're also looking at some pretty big sample size periods with Pioli, Reese, and Caserio being the main guys in charge. I just think it's a bad idea for any organization to lack opposition voices; and I don't mean that no one constructively challenges Belichick or Caserio; I mean that they have all been influenced by Belichick so much that it's really hard to actually think outside the box when you were educated in the box.

Spot on. It's absolutely not a coincidence. You're exactly right. The core players of the 3 Champion teams came from 2009-2012. Sorry have to throw this in but it's also not a coincidence that our worst drafting periods, 2005-2008 and 2013-now, had the same offensive coordinator with an oversized influence (Maroney, Chad Jackson, Aaron Dobson, NKeal Harry, even changed our CB scouting system in 2004). Like I said and agree, we have to switch it up, we have too many John Carroll guys mucking up the personnel and talent evaluation.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Spot on. It's absolutely not a coincidence. You're exactly right. The core players of the 3 Champion teams came from 2009-2012. Sorry have to throw this in but it's also not a coincidence that our worst drafting periods, 2005-2008 and 2013-now, had the same offensive coordinator with an oversized influence (Maroney, Chad Jackson, Aaron Dobson, NKeal Harry, even changed our CB scouting system in 2004). Like I said and agree, we have to switch it up, we have too many John Carroll guys mucking up the personnel and talent evaluation.

Sure, I would say that the coaches are also subject to the same type of issues, but moreso with Brady gone. I think Josh is a smart guy. I don't think he's a bad coordinator or a good one because I think that stuff is fairly overrated and it's so much about the players, though certainly there are times/games when they shine (see my recent post on Bowles). I was never big on Josh with Brady and not really down on him post-Brady because I just see OC as closer to a functional role than a real game changing one.

But I do think it would be a good time for them to hire one of these rising stars from another organization who have been looking at offenses differently from the way they've looked at it for so long. In 20 years, one drafted WR (Branch) has been very good; one other drafted WR (Edelman) has been great, but that's with extreme caveats that the team didn't even realize it for four years and he was a QB in college. That tells me the team needs to do what every other team in the sports universe does and mix it up, listen to some other perspectives on offensive philosophy, and add some more layers to your oganization.

It seems possible, if not probable, that a lof of the genius in their system as the guy reading the defenses and throwing the passes. The way they approached this offseason by having no decisive ideas on free agent QBs (offering some lukewarm, lowball offer for Stafford, signing Newton despite his major flaws) makes me think they badly need someone who can come in and just tell them what he needs from a quarterback, from receivers, etc., rather than this In Bill We Trust purgatory they're in right now. That they brought back Patricia as an assistant just seems like another step in the wrong direction...need to surround themselves with guys who aren't Belichick proteges. They now have McDaniels (lifer who showed his ideas are worthless without Brady in Denver and St. Louis) and Little Stephen (lol) as their coordinators. There are plenty of them out there that would be thrilled to work with Belichick.

 

[rochrist]

By the way, this is from the NFL Films SB55. This is when the Bucs picked Mahomes with under two minutes and set off the Gatorade and everthing. Anyone want to guess the first person who Gronk embraces?

View attachment 32155

View attachment 32156

Yeah....that's right. As I've argued for two years, Gronk left New England because Belichick's one-size-fits-all approach to practices and fitness didn't fit him..and Brady followed him out the door. To me, Guerrero's presence in Tampa Bay tells so much about the exodus.

In the end, Guerrero's training regiments worked. Maybe he was a quack in the past; maybe he's a quack now. Maybe Brady did a crappy job explaining the benefits in a book that also makes a lot of ridiculous claims. But bottom line: Brady and Gronk's careers were extended after leaving New England and going to a place where they had more discretion over workload, rest times, and which nutitionist/workout program they wanted to use, with an organization that embraces it instead of reluctantly allows it to an extent. People should stop being so bitter and start giving Alex Guerrero some serious credit. I'm quite certain that if you asked Brady privately who is the single most important person that helped his NFL career, I know his answer...and that means a lot.

He's not just a quack, he's basically a criminal. Because he may have stopped crimeing for the moment doesn't change that.

 

[Deus Irae]

 

[DropKickFlutie]

In 20 years, one drafted WR (Branch) has been very good; one other drafted WR (Edelman) has been great, but that's with extreme caveats that the team didn't even realize it for four years and he was a QB in college.

They now have McDaniels (lifer who showed his ideas are worthless without Brady in Denver and St. Louis)

Good post. I would just add to your point that to your point the only 2 receivers we ever drafted were Branch and Edelman, both during the 2001-2004 and 2009-2012 windows where Josh was not here. A desert from 2005-2008 and 2013-now. Meyers was undrafted.
But yes fair point. McDaniels wasn't bad when BRADY was here. Without Brady it's looking a lot like Denver 2010 and St Louis 2011 now.

 

[Tony2046]

Good post. I would just add to your point that to your point the only 2 receivers we ever drafted were Branch and Edelman, both during the 2001-2004 and 2009-2012 windows where Josh was not here. A desert from 2005-2008 and 2013-now. Meyers was undrafted.
But yes fair point. McDaniels wasn't bad when BRADY was here. Without Brady it's looking a lot like Denver 2010 and St Louis 2011 now.

This is alarming. Why haven't I heard about this before??

 

[Deus Irae]

They now have McDaniels (lifer who showed his ideas are worthless without Brady in Denver and St. Louis) and Little Stephen (lol) as their coordinators.

You do a million hours of prep and study for the G.O.A.T. list, and then follow that up with something this horribly researched? Oh, man...

 

[Tony2046]

You do a million hours of prep and study for the G.O.A.T. list, and then follow that up with something this horribly researched? Oh, man...

I think it's a Mockitory post.

 

[Deus Irae]

I think it's a Mockitory post.

I hope so. I'd rather owe him the apology for misunderstanding than read him trying to defend that.

 

[Deus Irae]

 

[Deus Irae]

 

[Tony2046]

I wonder what this would look like on a historical basis. It seems really rare.

 

[Deus Irae]

I wonder what this would look like on a historical basis. It seems really rare.

Yeah, the number is just crazy small. And, if I properly recall how it works, that can get even closer to 0 on the lost snaps side if Brown re-signs.