OT: Official 2020 Tompa Bay Gronkaneers Thread

[amfootball]

Just like the Patriots were 8-0 in the first half of the 2019 season, and 4 -4 over the last four games, their defense was ranked 1st in points allowed. But if you eliminate the first 8 cupcake games, the defensive stats more closely represent what we saw in the playoffs. Similarly if you look at Brady's stats over the last four games he is not building and getting better as the season wears on. Older QBs tend to struggle with their accuracy and longer throws as the season wears on. So to answer your question, look at how the metrics change as the season progresses, not the cumulative metrics.

View attachment 29294

Sure. But he also played very good defenses in weeks 8-11 other than Carolina. I mean you always have to look at context. He has had good to great games vs poor defenses and average to poor games vs very good defenses. That is pretty much true of all QBs save for Mahomes right now.

 

[sb1]

Yeah. I mean MVP at 43 is pretty outrageous especially on a new team. Although most analysts had him at 4 or 5 in the MVP race prior to the second Saints game.

I remember Steve Young was talking about the possibility before the second Saints game on the pregame.

Something like that would be unprecedented in not just the NFL but in pro sports. But I think plenty of what he's doing already is anyway for sure.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Sure. But he also played very good defenses in weeks 8-11 other than Carolina. I mean you always have to look at context. He has had good to great games vs poor defenses and average to poor games vs very good defenses. That is pretty much true of all QBs save for Mahomes right now.

Yes true, but I think you are missing the magnitude of the change. As you note having lower metrics is expected against better defenses, but going from 14-39 to 0-19 is a complete collapse, not lower metrics. Maybe TB will rebound over the last 4 games when Tampa has weaker opponents, but there will be no weaker opponents in the playoffs. I think it is mature and reasonable to expect TB's metrics to continue to drop as the season wears on. We will see. Clearly the message that TB's overall metrics are OK, so everything is OK, fails to tell the whole story.

 

[amfootball]

Yes true, but I think you are missing the magnitude of the change. As you note having lower metrics is expected against better defenses, but going from 14-39 to 0-19 is a complete collapse, not lower metrics. Maybe TB will rebound over the last 4 games when Tampa has weaker opponents, but there will be no weaker opponents in the playoffs. I think it is mature and reasonable to expect TB's metrics to continue to drop as the season wears on. We will see. Clearly the message that TB's overall metrics are OK, so everything is OK, fails to tell the whole story.

The question wasn't about his deep ball metrics but whether he is underperforming. If you want to make the case that he has underperformed the last few games because he has not hit deep passes, have at it. But he put up 46 vs Carolina, 26 vs the Giants, 24 vs the Rams. It's not like production of points has fallen off the map. He has found other ways to move the ball and score which is why focusing on ONE metric is dangerous and lacks context. I think Tampa is still figuring things out given they just added AB. I have no idea how they will perform come playoffs. Would not surprise me to see them pound the Chiefs this Sunday. They have been that kind of team. They have the bye coming after the Chiefs to try to iron things out and then 4 easy games to refine things. They could easily go on a run like the Titans did last year or they could be one or done. But either way, I think Brady is pretty much on point this season especially with no off-season and a whole new system and team. If people were expecting him to have Wilson or Mahomes numbers than they don't understand football or playing QB at an advanced age.

 

[RicoG]

Things never go perfect especially in season #1 when there was no off-season. I too hope they can fix things but sometimes that is easier said than done. Hard to believe we think Brady is underperforming with what he has done this season at age 43 but I suppose that is the standard he has set.

He was in th MVP conversation until the 2nd Saints game. For Brady, if he is not in the conversation, that is underperforming.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Would not surprise me to see them pound the Chiefs this Sunday.

OK - we will see if you are surprised this Sunday. I get the impression you are not a youngun so I am amazed you are slow to accept the inevitable pitfalls of aging. We will see, or we can look in the mirror and see the inevitable before than

 

[amfootball]

I remember Steve Young was talking about the possibility before the second Saints game on the pregame.

Something like that would be unprecedented in not just the NFL but in pro sports. But I think plenty of what he's doing already is anyway for sure.

He did win it age 40 which is already unprecedented. LOL.

 

[carmelo15]

I wanna see all you come back when TB shreds the Chiefs

you know they won’t be here

 

[1960Pats]

2019
Bucs ypg rank: 3rd
Bucs ppg rank: 4th
Bucs yards per play: 5.9
Bucs 3rd down conversion rate: 41.5%

2020
Bucs ypg game rank: 18th
Bucs ppg rank: 6th
Bucs yards per play: 5.5
Bucs 3rd down conversion rate: 43.6%


Another "what the"

Pats yards per game rank: 16th
Bucs yards per game rank: 18th

Pats yards per play: 5.7
Bucs yards per play: 5.5

Pats 3rd down conversion rate: 44.3%
Bucs 3rd down conversion rate: 43.6%

This is more of an illustration of how Belichick is the GOAT coach and Arians is at best a decent offensive coordinator

I've been to Gillette many times but every time I look at the scoreboard I can't seem to find yards on there anywhere. All I can find are points. And when I look at a newspaper for the wins and losses there are the points again.

Through 11 qames last year TB had a 4-7 record. Through 11 games this year they're 7-4. I think I know which record their fans prefer.

Through 10 games last year the Pats, with possibly a worse offense, had 287 points and a 9-1 record.
Through 10 games this year the Pats have 209 points and a 4-6 record.

Did Belichick misplace a piece of his brain in the off season and Arians find it?

 

[NG Pats Fan]

Yeah, he says some dumb things like last week complaining about 3-4 field goals after scoring almost 50 with I think 5 touchdowns. Something the coaches here would never do with that kind of offensive output.

Then last night. The NE mentality would be field goal and if TD, that is gravy. BUT ARIANS mentality is TD or nothing.

I have a newfound appreciation of BB and McD coaching from the last few years. As the offense declined year over year, they relied more on the run, strategic play calling, special teams, situational fb, and defence. NE won a lot of close games this way.

Of course TB is in TB and NE is below .500 because of the bad drafting the last few years and Tom didn't get the Brees treatment he deserved for his twilight years.

mcd is the worst talent evaluator in the nfl

 

[PF_SU]

with possibly a worse offense,

You can't be serious about that. Receiving corps in the first 10 games last year was quite a lot better than this year, especially with Edelman first dinged up and then on IR. Not to mention that one of the games this year was QB'd by Hoyer and Stidham after Cam's COVID diagnosis including almost 2 weeks of no practice.

 

[luuked]

He was in th MVP conversation until the 2nd Saints game. For Brady, if he is not in the conversation, that is underperforming.

???????

On what planet ? At the very latest after the entire fourth down debacle against Chicago there was no way he would even be in the top 5 for MVP. And realistically it was always between Mahomes, Wilson and Murray. Everyone else is just there as padding.

 

[SVN]

brady's struggles are norm for the new system and team. they have a collection of athletes not a team yet. Playing for arians though may not have been the wisest choice - i mean the guy praticed at night to change primetime mojo. there is too much hangover from past weeks and dissection about his play in public than it was here. BB would just shut it out and move on to the next game. but what do i know . Favre went to the NFCC game with brad childress.i can totally forsee arians leaving after his contract in 2 yrs and dissing on brady in public even more for ratings and writing a new book.

 

[luuked]

I've been to Gillette many times but every time I look at the scoreboard I can't seem to find yards on there anywhere. All I can find are points. And when I look at a newspaper for the wins and losses there are the points again.

Through 11 qames last year TB had a 4-7 record. Through 11 games this year they're 7-4. I think I know which record their fans prefer.

Through 10 games last year the Pats, with possibly a worse offense, had 287 points and a 9-1 record.
Through 10 games this year the Pats have 209 points and a 4-6 record.

Did Belichick misplace a piece of his brain in the off season and Arians find it?

That's what happens when you ignore context and just go hump some stats.

How many points where scored by the defense or ST last year ? How often did the defense give them favorable field position after a turnover ?

The reality is that last year's offense was a step behind what we have been seeing McDaniels and Newton doing since week 8 and that despite a defense that has moved from #1 in DVOA to #32. And you can see that in advanced metrics (e.g. EPA-based stuff) or in very simple metrics like red zone success rate.

What it looks like is that losing almost the entire front 7 to free agency and opt-outs has had a much bigger impact on the Patriots than replacing 2019 Brady with 2020 Cam (while saving 10M+ in cap space).

 

[JMC00]

I've been to Gillette many times but every time I look at the scoreboard I can't seem to find yards on there anywhere. All I can find are points. And when I look at a newspaper for the wins and losses there are the points again.

Through 11 qames last year TB had a 4-7 record. Through 11 games this year they're 7-4. I think I know which record their fans prefer.

Through 10 games last year the Pats, with possibly a worse offense, had 287 points and a 9-1 record.
Through 10 games this year the Pats have 209 points and a 4-6 record.

Did Belichick misplace a piece of his brain in the off season and Arians find it?

Defense/ST was responsible for 42 points in those 10 games last year

Gilmore pick 6
Collins pick 6
Slater blocked punt TD
Winovich blocked punt TD
Van Noy fumble return TD
Hightower fumble return TD

This year they have had only 2 D/ST TDs McCourty pick 6 and a Wise's sack/fumble recovery TD.

42 points vs 14 points

So it's really 245 points vs 195 points

50 point difference in 10 games is 5 points a game. With a new QB, basically a different style of offense and this covid stuff that hurt team for a few weeks this year the offense is only not even 2 FGs worse scoring wise than last year.

You've basically just made my point for me bringing up the "points in 10 games" stat


And i'll continue to argue that Seattle, Buffalo, Denver, KC, Houston were all games that could have went the Pats way with better luck and we could be talking about an 8-2 or 7-3 team. Just didn't get the breaks like they have before and that's just how it has worked out.

 

[JMC00]

and a follow up to my last post if you are gonna respond with "they played worse defenses this year" here is the ranked defenses (points per game allowed) they played through 10 games

2019

5th
32nd
16th
2nd
27th
30th
16th
20th
3rd
15th

Avg: 16.6

2020

4th
28th
8th
7th
27th
18th
11th
32nd
3rd
23rd

Avg 16.1


It's pretty much dead even in the defenses they've face between this year and last through 10 games.

 

[Lagaffe_07]

It’s not complicated. Deep passes is not Brady games. Arians need to realize that.

This year Brady is tied for first in deep pass attemps (20+ yards) with 60. The last month, he went 1-19 for 44 yards and 3 picks. I heard Matt Cassel said that, this year, when Brady throws between the line of scrimmage and 19 yards, he has a 70% completion, a TD/Int ratio of 4/1 and a passer rating of 108.9.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

It’s not complicated. Deep passes is not Brady games. Arians need to realize that.

This year Brady is tied for first in deep pass attemps (20+ yards) with 60. The last month, he went 1-19 for 44 yards and 3 picks. I heard Matt Cassel said that, this year, when Brady throws between the line of scrimmage and 19 yards, he has a 70% completion, a TD/Int ratio of 4/1 and a passer rating of 108.9.

Makes sense why Belichick stacked his career with 2 slot receivers Welker Edelman plus TEs in Gronk and Hernandez. All these middle field option routes. He maximizes his players strengths. On the flip side Brady went to a team with deep threats and big names but he isn't elite at throwing outside the hash marks.

.

 

[Lagaffe_07]

Makes sense why Belichick stacked his career with 2 slots receivers Welker Edelman plus TEs in Gronk and Hernandez. He maximizes his players strengths. On the flip side Brady went to a team with deep threats and big names but he isn't elite at throwing outside the hash marks.

.

I agree about Bill that’s why he is the greatest coach. He adapts to his players and try to put them in situations where they can succeed. This year the lack of talent doesn’t allow him to do that. He has to put players in position he doesn’t want to because he really has no choice. Too many coaches try to force players into their system while they don’t fit. The good coaches are the ones that can adapt to their players.

In my opinion, Evans and Goodwin aren’t only deep threats. I think they are good route runners and can be effective in the 10-20 yards range. Brown is a slot guy. You can use him like you used Edelman. Tom has played bad against good teams but the system and the gameplan doesn’t take advantage of his strength in my opinion and that’s on coaches.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

I agree about Bill that’s why he is the greatest coach. He adapts to his players and try to put them in situations where they can succeed. This year the lack of talent doesn’t allow him to do that. He has to put players in position he doesn’t want to because he really has no choice. Too many coaches try to force players into their system while they don’t fit. The good coaches are the ones that can adapt to their players.

In my opinion, Evans and Goodwin aren’t only deep threats. I think they are good route runners and can be effective in the 10-20 yards range. Brown is a slot guy. You can use him like you used Edelman. Tom has played bad against good teams but the system and the gameplan doesn’t take advantage of his strength in my opinion and that’s on coaches.

Right but the game plan isn't that in Tampa even though they could run it

.