OT: Going for it on 4th down

[supafly]

Witten said that the only drive they scored a TD on was when Romo was calling the plays.

Jeez, that's even worse. I was shocked to read today that Stephen Jones claims Garrett's hot seat talk to be "ridiculous," but then again--what do we expect him to say?

I think that team needs a disciplinarian type as their HC, someone in the mold of a Bill Cowher/Nick Saban etc, but the problem is that no one can seem to get along with Jerry Jones and son.

Jones needs to let go of some of that ego, and find a decent coach.

Personally, I don't care either way, but it drives my wife crazy as a life long fan.

 

[Avenger]

https://twitter.com/GuardtheStar/status/265543341280722945

 

[Gumby]

One thing I thought about due to the Colts-Jags game about going for it on 4th and goal.....

One item that isnt account for in the calculation is momemtum and emotion.

From a purely subjective memory standpoint (no statistical defense material here); it seems to me that WHEN A TEAM HAS a SUCCESSFUL GOAL LINE STAND; the Offense has a much greater propensity to drive the distance and score a TD or any kind of points; compared to a situation where they were punted into an inside the 10 start.

That turnaround (taking 3-7 off the board - adding 3-7 the other way) has a big emotional impact on both teams that can essentially put the game away.

If anyone has weird stats site or way for looking for that; it might be interesting to see if my intuition is validated or just subject to the 'memory of more significant events'.

 

[Fencer]

One thing to remember -- the numbers may be different for different teams, and certainly at different levels of play.

For example, as per a post above, if your FG kicker is unreliable, then going for it REALLY makes sense.

Anyhow, BB seems to feel that the offense has the advantage in the middle of the field, so that long drives are almost the norm rather than the exception, at least if an offense is good. You just try to get lucky before FG range, and if you don't then you try to hold in the red zone.

 

[borg]

Seems to work for the Patriots in the NFL. I guess the NFL isn't as good as the SEC.

The Pats have the 2nd fewest 4th down attempts in the league this year....going 1 for 3. Got anything else to offer?

 

[Gumby]

The Pats have the 2nd fewest 4th down attempts in the league this year....going 1 for 3. Got anything else to offer?

Pats also have the fewest 3 and outs and (I think)fewest punts THIS YEAR. (That would tend to imply the fewest 4th downs). Taking this year in isolation negates the guy's joking point; but isnt really true.

BB does have a track history (in the last 5-8 years) of going for it on 4th more agressively (between own 20 and opposing 20) and not just when desperate (down by 14+ points in 2nd half) than the rest of the league. I dont think you can deny that when looked at a larger time-frame.

All that said; I think BB knew this (the 4th down %s) from Ernie before paying any visit to these guys. He went to see what else they had come up with and they validated each other on the 4th down issue.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Pats also have the fewest 3 and outs and (I think)fewest punts THIS YEAR. (That would tend to imply the fewest 4th downs). Taking this year in isolation negates the guy's joking point; but isnt really true.

BB does have a track history (in the last 5-8 years) of going for it on 4th more agressively (between own 20 and opposing 20) and not just when desperate (down by 14+ points in 2nd half) than the rest of the league. I dont think you can deny that when looked at a larger time-frame.

All that said; I think BB knew this (the 4th down %s) from Ernie before paying any visit to these guys. He went to see what else they had come up with and they validated each other on the 4th down issue.

Was it the Atlanta game in 09? First drive of the game. 4th and one from own 29 and he went for it. Got it. Scored on the drive and set the tone for the game.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

Was it the Atlanta game in 09? First drive of the game. 4th and one from own 29 and he went for it. Got it. Scored on the drive and set the tone for the game.

I think that just comes down to the probability of making the field goal (44 yards?) and getting the 1-3 yards needed for a first down. Also, you have to factor in the value of 7 points over 3 and the wearing down of a defense and the effect on the rest of the game.

 

[Patjew]

I think that just comes down to the probability of making the field goal (44 yards?) and getting the 1-3 yards needed for a first down. Also, you have to factor in the value of 7 points over 3 and the wearing down of a defense and the effect on the rest of the game.

That would have been an 89 yd FG.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

That would have been an 89 yd FG.

yeah, i guess i was thinking atlanta 29, but patsfaninpa did clearly say own 29. I don't recall the play, but that was certainly a bold move.