OT: Going for it on 4th down

[Don_the_patfan]

Thought it was an interesting read. Basically that Chip Kelly when he moves to NFL may revolutionize the game and about "Zeus". But a few tidbits were interesting:

How Oregon Coach Chip Kelly Can Spark 'Moneyball' Revolution In NFL | ThePostGame

But the most important thing to take away from Zeus' findings is that the math isn't even close.The numbers are so overwhelming that teams that kick field goals on fourth and short at the 20-yard line aren't just wrong, they're so wrong it's ludicrous. For the Texas Hold ‘Em players out there, kicking a field goal in that situation is like folding pocket aces pre-flop against a smaller pocket pair. You're conceding when you're the overwhelming favorite.

It was a brilliant call by Sean Payton, who along with Bill Belichick, are the two NFL coaches who appear to have a fairly firm grasp on football's mathematics. In fact, Belichick met with Frigo and Bower shortly after they invented Zeus, but passed on purchasing the super computer's services. My guess is that Bill got all the information he needed during their meeting, namely, that the math says to go for it on fourth and short, a decision he's made repeatedly throughout his brilliant tenure in New England.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Bill O'Brien has taken this thought process to PSU too. Of course, he has a crappy kicker. For any twitter fans out there. There's a character named Evil Bill O'Brien. A parody of the real Bill O'Brien. He says everything a coach has always wanted to say. He's a riot. Remember early in the first buffalo game when we punted on 4th and 2 around the Buffalo 40? Evil Bill tweeted; "I knew the brains of the outfit left. Didn't realize the balls did too!" He's a hoot if you want to follow.

https://twitter.com/evilbillobrien

 

[borg]

Please give us an Alabama/Oregon championship game and lets see how the quackers perform against a high caliber D.

 

[Kontradiction]

Please give us an Alabama/Oregon championship game and lets see how the quackers perform against a high caliber D.

Everyone saw what happened with Oregon went up against Auburn a couple of years ago. That style of offense wouldn't last in the SEC.

 

[patsfaninpa]

What does the SEC have to do with going for it on 4th down? This thread is about whether you should go for it on first down. Not how great the SEC is.

 

[Off The Grid]

This thread is about whether you should go for it on first down.

Personally, I think you should always go for it on 1st Down.

But, hey: That's me.

I'm an aggressive Gambler.

Mister Vegas.

Stripes (with John Candy) - Bluff me (Funny poker scene) - YouTube

 

[Deus Irae]

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/953445-going-4th-down-correct-heres-why.html

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/95/951372-deadspin-article-going-4th-down.html

 

[DocHoliday]

The article mentions that you should go for it on 4th and short on your own 25.

Maybe the math is right but it's so unintuitive.

 

[Kontradiction]

What does the SEC have to do with going for it on 4th down? This thread is about whether you should go for it on first down. Not how great the SEC is.

I was responding to the poster above me. Take it up with him, buddy.

 

[Patjew]

I've been surprised the Pats haven't gone for it on 4th and short more this year.

Remember when they punted on 3rd down against the Bills in 2008 during that really windy game? That was brilliant.

 

[letekro]

No surprise that going for it at the opposing 20 is a good decision. The math gets a little more hairy when you move to the other side of the 50.

 

[Patriot Missile]

I've been surprised the Pats haven't gone for it on 4th and short more this year.

Remember when they punted on 3rd down against the Bills in 2008 during that really windy game? That was brilliant.

I think they punted twice on 3rd down in that game. One of the windiest games I can remember. Pretty low scoring, like 10-3?

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

Everyone saw what happened with Oregon went up against Auburn a couple of years ago. That style of offense wouldn't last in the SEC.

Auburn's win over Oregon showed that any style of offense is going to have trouble if the opponent's DL wins the battle at the LOS.

Very similar to how the Giants match up well vs. the Pats.

Regards,
Chris

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

The article overlooks a *huge* aspect of Chip Kelly's offense...the turbo hurry-up that the Pats adopted last year in their passing offense and migrated into their running offense this year. His 4th-down decisions are tied to the success of that execution and cannot be looked at in a vaccuum.

Actually, *that's* the "Moneyball" revolution I see Chip bringing to the NFL which has already started with New England...the turbo hurry-up. I expect to see a lot more teams doing this next year.

Regards,
Chris

 

[Patjew]

I think they punted twice on 3rd down in that game. One of the windiest games I can remember. Pretty low scoring, like 10-3?

13-0. Check it. Patriots 13, Bills 0 - NFL Videos

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

The article overlooks a *huge* aspect of Chip Kelly's offense...the turbo hurry-up that the Pats adopted last year in their passing offense and migrated into their running offense this year. His 4th-down decisions are tied to the success of that execution and cannot be looked at in a vaccuum.

Actually, *that's* the "Moneyball" revolution I see Chip bringing to the NFL which has already started with New England...the turbo hurry-up. I expect to see a lot more teams doing this next year.

Regards,
Chris

Now that Bill Polian is no longer running the NFL Competition Committee it may not get outlawed or restricted next year. Is that tool Jeff Fisher still on that Committee?

Ah yes, Wiki has the BB hater as Co-Chair.

 

[borg]

What does the SEC have to do with going for it on 4th down? This thread is about whether you should go for it on first down. Not how great the SEC is.

Do you think these magnificent 4th down successes would exist vs SEC Ds? Oregon's numbers get skewed because of the weak PAC conference and the likes of Tenn Tech and Ark State. Frankly, vs an Alabama and LSU, I guarantee Kelly plays it much closer to the vest.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Do you think these magnificent 4th down successes would exist vs SEC Ds? Oregon's numbers get skewed because of the weak PAC conference and the likes of Tenn Tech and Ark State. Frankly, vs an Alabama and LSU, I guarantee Kelly plays it much closer to the vest.

Seems to work for the Patriots in the NFL. I guess the NFL isn't as good as the SEC.

 

[supafly]

I don't believe that we've seen as much "turbo-hurry up" from the team in the past few games, have we?

Are there thoughts out there that the hurry up may impact our own defense at times, thus making them more worn down in the 4th quarter, or is that theory way off base?? I don't believe that is the case myself, but I have heard some murmurings about it after the Seattle loss.

I would imagine that it is matchup based/oriented myself depending upon the opponent, so it's good to know that it's always there if/when needed.

I think the hurry up will continue to get utilized more and more and time goes on, but in many instances it almost seems like teams do not use it to their advantage enough...case in point, Dallas' success in the SNF game at ATL last week where they immediately shredded the defense with ease, yet they somehow shyed away from it previously.

 

[Avenger]

I don't believe that we've seen as much "turbo-hurry up" from the team in the past few games, have we?

Are there thoughts out there that the hurry up may impact our own defense at times, thus making them more worn down in the 4th quarter, or is that theory way off base?? I don't believe that is the case myself, but I have heard some murmurings about it after the Seattle loss.

I would imagine that it is matchup based/oriented myself depending upon the opponent, so it's good to know that it's always there if/when needed.

I think the hurry up will continue to get utilized more and more and time goes on, but in many instances it almost seems like teams do not use it to their advantage enough...case in point, Dallas' success in the SNF game at ATL last week where they immediately shredded the defense with ease, yet they somehow shyed away from it previously.

Witten said that the only drive they scored a TD on was when Romo was calling the plays.