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I have to believe Mahomes is showing up on these lists already because of what's being projected for him. He's been in the league for 5 seasons and obviously he's had a very impressive start to his career, but I don't see him keeping up that pace because he's going to have very strong competition for likely the rest of his career. Allen, Burrow and Herbert. Jackson if he can stay healthy. Watson if he can fully regain his form. Lawrence will enter this conversation soon. Perhaps Tua if concussions don't end his career first. Mahomes might lose to Hurts this weekend, and depending on how Hurts plays, then maybe he's on the list too.
I really think Mahomes needs this Super Bowl for his legacy standing. The QB he's gunning for in the long run (Brady), knocked him out of the postseason twice. He needs to get to 2 rings now and he'll still be 5 behind Brady (who has the tiebreaker if they both finish with 7 rings). A loss would put Mahomes at 1-2 in the SB with a strong unlikelihood of him keeping up his current pace of appearances.
With a win this weekend, Mahomes is definitely passing Roethlisberger and Warner. But I wouldn't put him past Rodgers yet, although he'll clearly be gaining ground. Brees? I'm not sure. As you alluded to, it's difficult getting his ranking correct. I'll have to see what happens this weekend first.
Even if Mahomes wins the SB and SB MVP this weekend (to go along with his second NFL MVP), he's not getting in my all-time top 5 yet. Brady had 3 rings and 2 SB MVPs after 4 seasons and it was clear he would be getting back to many more. With the number of elite quarterbacks that Mahomes will be facing in his conference alone, I don't think it's guaranteed he gets back to multiple Super Bowls. Plus his exceptional head coach (who isn't exactly a physical specimen) is turning 65 in March. We'll eventually see what Mahomes looks like without Reid.
In five years as a starter, he has surpassed many of the top QBs of all time in achievements. He has more playoff wins than Marino (Marino was 8-10 in the playoffs and Mahomes is 10-3 and could be 11-3 this Sunday). He will likely have two league MVPs after the voting this year which is more than Marino and the same amount as Montana (only Brady, Manning, Farve, Rodgers, and Unitas have more). He could have two Super Bowl rings which is more than most QBs.
I guess he could get injured in the next year or two and tank the rest of his career, but Mahomes has probably already achieved enough to get him into the Hall.
He has Allen, Burrow, Herbert, and Jackson this year and he is most likely league MVP and potentially have another ring. I am not sure the competition is going to stop the guy from being the best in the league.
Again, I don't think he is in the top five yet, but I can see the case for it. I would certainly consider putting him in the top 10 even if he retired after the game on Sunday.