Official Pregame Thread: Pats @ Panthers

[captain stone]

Patriots only favored by 3.5

What am I missing here?

Why in the world should they be favored by more than that, if at all?

 

[Pats1971]

Why in the world should they be favored by more than that, if at all?

Because they are a better team than carolina. I thought the number was a little low too.

 

[Sicilian]

Why in the world should they be favored by more than that, if at all?

Why should the Panthers?

 

[Pats1971]

Why should the Panthers?

panthers are ok defensively, they are pretty broke on the offense. Pats should win. I would have the line around 5, but then again, I do not have big buildings in Las Vegas.

 

[captain stone]

More so than the MLB? Definitely not. MLB has tons of volatility with playoff outcomes. NFL falls between MLB and NBA imo. In baseball you just had the team with the worst record of all playoff teams win the World Series. They were sub .500 over 100 games into the season and only made it because of a bad division. They beat the Dodgers and Astros. That would be exactly like if WFT won the Super Bowl last year and beat the Bucs and Chiefs to do it. And it’s not uncommon at all in baseball for powerhouse teams to get upset.

Actually, the Braves this year were the exception to the rule.

 

[Rob0729]

This is why I hate PFF. Jones has arguably his worst game as a pro and his best PFF score yet.

 

[Kontradiction]

How has history shown that to be innacurate? Even Brady with new players needed at least a 1/4 of the season to get on the same page in a lot of years. I don't know where you are going with the busted skill positions, had nothing to do with my post.

Examples of successful WR acquisitions that needed 1/4 of the season to get on the same page with Brady?

2019 - Brown? Nope. Sanu? Nope.
2018 - Gordon? Nope.
2017 - Cooks? Nope.
2016 - Hogan? Nope.
2015 - N/A.
2014 - LaFell? Nope.
2013 - Amendola? Nope.
2012 - Lloyd? Nope.
2011 - N/A
2010 - N/A
2009 - N/A
2007 - Moss? Nope. Welker? Nope. Stallworth? Nope.
2006 - Caldwell? Nope.
2005 - N/A
2004 - N/A
2003 - N/A
2002 - Branch? Nope. Givens? Didn’t see a lot of snaps.

Who are you referring to? I’m working off of memory, so there’s always a chance I forgot someone.

 

[ashley]

Some practice notes:

 

[gitgronked82]

Actually, the Braves this year were the exception to the rule.

In the sense that they had a losing record 100+ games into the season, sure. Was it an exception to have someone other than a powerhouse favorite win? Absolutely not. Baseball playoffs have more variance/randomness in outcome. That's just... really easy to observe anecdotally.

And instead of relying on my anecdotes, you can also look at research: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1701.05976.pdf

"We find that ... a typical contest in the NHL or MLB is much closer to a coin-flip than one in the NBA or NFL."

"it is insufficient to evaluate a baseball or hockey team based on their performance in the postseason alone, given that so many of those contests are nearly 50-50 outcomes."

 

[RobertWeathers]

Perry: Rhule vs. Belichick could be a TKO this week in Carolina

Carolina head coach Matt Rhule has adopted some unique philosophies, and one in particular may have cost him his starting quarterback this week. Phil Perry illustrates why there is a big coaching edge for the Patriots in Week 9.

www.nbcsports.com

Good lord. Right from the Island of Misfit Coaches.

 

[gitgronked82]

This is why I hate PFF. Jones has arguably his worst game as a pro and his best PFF score yet.

Did he also have his best PFF score? That's not what that tweet shows

 

[Sicilian]

panthers are ok defensively, they are pretty broke on the offense. Pats should win. I would have the line around 5, but then again, I do not have big buildings in Las Vegas.

Agreed. I think Vegas looks at it like this: Both teams are 4-4. One has won 3 of their last 4 games, with the loss coming in overtime to a really good Dallas team. The other has lost 4 of their last 5 with the one win being against a 2-4 (going in) Falcons team, and may be without their starting QB. Adjust 3 points for the game being in Caroline, and 3.5 may not be perfect but it's in the ballpark of what to expect.

Two things that could shift that perspective between now and 1pm Sunday though, are if McCaffrey suits up, and this JC Jackson illness keeps him out. That's giving them their best offensive player and taking away arguably our second best defensive player. That's a significant swing.

 

[Pats2000]

Examples of successful WR acquisitions that needed 1/4 of the season to get on the same page with Brady?

2019 - Brown? Nope. Sanu? Nope.
2018 - Gordon? Nope.
2017 - Cooks? Nope.
2016 - Hogan? Nope.
2015 - N/A.
2014 - LaFell? Nope.
2013 - Amendola? Nope.
2012 - Lloyd? Nope.
2011 - N/A
2010 - N/A
2009 - N/A
2007 - Moss? Nope. Welker? Nope. Stallworth? Nope.
2006 - Caldwell? Nope.
2005 - N/A
2004 - N/A
2003 - N/A
2002 - Branch? Nope. Givens? Didn’t see a lot of snaps.

Who are you referring to? I’m working off of memory, so there’s always a chance I forgot someone.

I don't feel like going back and doing all of the years, but the data completely disagrees with you. Here are the Pats avg points per game for the first 4 games vs the total season.

2012 - 33.5 vs 38
2013 - 22.25 vs 31
2014 - 20 vs. 36
2016 - 20.25 vs 34
2018 - 23.75 vs 33

I didn't go past 2012 because I didn't feel like it, but in 5 of those 8 years with new offensive talent, the Patriots ended with more to a lot more points per game in after the first quarter of the season because the offense historically would start out somewhat slow when new talent joined the team and needed the first quarter of the season to really gel with the offense. I'll also add that even in the other years, there were lower average points early in the season rather than later. It just wasn't a big difference.

 

[Rob0729]

Did he also have his best PFF score? That's not what that tweet shows

I think his highest grade prior to this was like 88 or 89 range.

But it was the highest grade by any QB in three weeks. That is still pretty damning for PFF.

 

[JMC00]

This is why I hate PFF. Jones has arguably his worst game as a pro and his best PFF score yet.

To be fair that says since week 5

His highest grade for a game was 92.5 vs the Cowboys

 

[Rob0729]

To be fair that says since week 5

His highest grade for a game was 92.5 vs the Cowboys

I thought it was the highest, but even still. It was arguably his worst game.

But they Tweet says highest graded QB since week 5. I take that that no other QB had a higher grade since week 5. It could be that they meant his highest grade since week 5, but that isn't what they wrote.

 

[Hyped]

I think the bigger question is who do the Panthers put Gilmore on. The one thing about no one standing out as the biggest Mac Jones target on this team, the Panthers cannot just put Gilmore on the Pats' best receiver and lock him down and do significant damage to the offense if say you were defending against the Bengals where you will have him just shadow Ja'Marr Chase all game or Cooper Cupp for the Rams.

If I were the Panthers, I'd probably keep Gilmore on one side....or put him on Meyers.

Hoping Meyers scores his first NFL TD reception on Gilmore though....

 

[Hammer of Thor]

I thought it was the highest, but even still. It was arguably his worst game.

But they Tweet says highest graded QB since week 5. I take that that no other QB had a higher grade since week 5. It could be that they meant his highest grade since week 5, but that isn't what they wrote.

The tweet says the highest graded QB since week 5. It means that if you grade out all the last 4 weeks for every player, he’s had the highest overall score among them. Like an average. Individual QBs certainly may have had higher graded games, but they followed it up with a stinker that lowered their overall score over that time period. Mac hasn’t had that.

And while this may have been his “worst game as a pro” (I’ve read that a lot this week), I disagree. This was the game where he may have had the most issues with his overall accuracy. But this was the 1st game all season where I did not see him make even one bad decision or read. Nothing was potentially interceptable. Threw the ball away at the right times. Scrambled at the right time. No bad sacks. He even threw an absolute dart on one intermediate pass, which should put to rest any arm strength issues (if he keeps working at it). He just was off a touch on his passes. The accuracy can be fixed with minor tweaks, given his history of very accurate passing. The decision making — seeing how well he progressed there (and he started at a high level for a rookie to begin with) — that’s the real sign here, and the arrow is really pointing up now.

 

[Sicilian]

If I were the Panthers, I'd probably keep Gilmore on one side....or put him on Meyers.

Hoping Meyers scores his first NFL TD reception on Gilmore though....

Seeing how Rhule has been thinking lately, I'm guessing his strategy is: "Okay, going into this game, we need to make sure Gilmore makes 10 tackles. We do that, we win the game."

 

[Rob0729]

The tweet says the highest graded QB since week 5. It means that if you grade out all the last 4 weeks for every player, he’s had the highest overall score among them. Like an average. Individual QBs certainly may have had higher graded games, but they followed it up with a stinker that lowered their overall score over that time period.

Ok, I get it now. my bad. I thought it was for this was his weekly grade for this week.