The Pats just went to overtime with a top-5 team in the league despite losing the turnover differential -2, and effectively giving up two pick-6s (Diggs' actual pick-6, and the Meyers TD that was called back, which promptly turned into a turnover, a 7 point swing). If they had recovered the muffed punt, they likely win that game in regulation despite losing the turnover battle -1 (-2 in actuality, but -1 hypothetically had they recovered that muff) to the best offensive team in football. I say this not to argue that this was a moral victory, but I say this to demonstrate that there isn't some fatal, fundamental flaw with this team. They're a good, not great, football team that can play with anyone in the league, but need to stop turning the ball over and be a bit a tougher in critical, late-game situations if they want to turn close losses into close wins.
My reaction is not one of: "man, this team is complete hot garbage, with a bad coach, bad players, and no future".
Instead my reaction is: "man, that was a close game. I'm frustrated this team can't make the critical plays late in games to come up with wins, and I'm really frustrated that they keep turning the ball over".
There isn't some fundamental flaw or "gotcha" issue. The coaching (particularly offensively) could be better in spots, I think McDaniels made some serious strategic errors today. The players need to make plays and execute better at times, they need to stop turning the damn ball over ... but they're not a bad team, with 3 of their 4 losses coming by a combined 9 points, two of those games being against top-5 teams in the league. They laid their once-per-season egg against New Orleans and played down to Houston.
They're still 1-3 years away from potentially being elite again (pending personnel decisions and Mac's progression). They need more talent in their defensive front-7, and Jones needs time to grow physically and gain experience, but they're not a bad team in their current iteration; they're a pretty good, not great team, that can't stop turning the ball over. Outside of the Jets game, I believe this team's TO differential for the season is -9 (-5 including the Jets game). I don't care how good you are, you won't win many games when that's the case.
The defense was good enough today, but they weren't great. "Great" would've been a late turnover to seal the game. Am I disappointed in the defense given who they were playing? No. Do I want to see them take the next step towards being great, which is generating game-winning plays? Absolutely.
Am I happy they lost? Absolutely not. Are they immune from criticism? Nope. Were there coaching decisions that I would've liked to have seen approached differently, by both Belichick and McDaniels? 100%, yes.
Do I think Bill Belichick is some feeble, infirm, old man who has lost his grasp on the game, lost his edge, and lost the essence of winning football? Not at all. Do I still feel he's as good of a coach as you'll find in the league? Yes, certainly. Do I trust him leading this team through the next 4-5 years, should he choose to stick around for that length of time? There's no one else I'd rather have.
Football is such a game-to-game, matchup sport. Do I think it's likely they win the division? Not at all. But we've seen runs happen, teams get hot, wacky plays/bounces of the ball, etc, and I wouldn't be shocked if New England found some traction and ended up around 9-10 wins, while Buffalo loses their magic. Would I put money on it? Nope, not for a second. Will I hold out hope they turn things around? Yeah, for sure.
Division aside, I think they have a good chance of making the postseason as a wild-card. 2-4 looks bad ... 3-3, or 4-2 would feel much better, but ultimately 2-4 is only one or two games away from 3-3/4-2, and most of the league is sitting in the 2-4 to 4-2 bracket, with 11 games left to be played. Don't need to be a mathematician to realize the team's goal of making the postseason is still very much in front of them.
The most important thing is that this team recovers physically and emotionally in order to avoid a letdown against the Jets. If I was Belichick, I might give them an extra day off and let them recharge. After a tough, emotional loss like this, I think it's better to err on the side of less work, more time to mentally/physically reinvigorate, than run the guys into the ground and come out flat the following week.
Looking forward to the rest of this season: The schedule is somewhat frontloaded. Buffalo is a good team but those AFCE games are usually tight and we matchup well with them. Outside of those games against Buffalo, the toughest ones left are LAC, CLE, TEN, CAR - all of those games are played by the end of November and are winnable. If they can win 3-4 of those matchups and pull out at least one against Buffalo, I think they will get a wild card spot (and if they find their way in, no one is going to want to play them, IMO).
At the end of the day losing f*cking sucks. The difference between a nice autumn evening and a miserable one is a Pats win, and I miss the feeling of them pulling out a big win ... miss it a lot. That said, it’s hard to feel they’re a bad team after watching today’s game; they looked like a playoff team to me. They just can’t find the plays they need to win close games. Tough, but on the balance I feel relatively positive about watching them going forward (for the rest of this season, and beyond into future seasons).
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