PATRIOTS NEWS OFFICIAL: Patriots Finally Acquire AJ Brown

[upstater1]

Yes, only because Jones was a headcase and we let him go to Arizona for that reason (but a tremendous player otherwise).

My point isn't that I would choose AJ Brown over every first round player. It's the simple point that the probabilities of success with a 1st round pick are under 33%. Meaning, there are times when it's a sensible mathematic gamble. Currently, AJ Brown is 28 years old, has an established record of success, has a skill set well-matched to Maye, and cap numbers that are reasonable.

Under these terms, giving a 1st round pick is not an enormous overpay -- because the chances of a Hightower in any given 1st round pick are like under 15% -- those players come once a decade or so, right?

But you're looking at a period when the Patriots drafted very poorly in the 1st round. Prior to that they had a 66% hit rate on players taken in the first 50.

Seymour, Light, Graham, Watson, Wilfork, Warren, Wilson, Marquise Hill, Mankins, Maroney, Chad Jackson, Merriweather, Mayo, Chung, Brace, Darius Butler, Vollmer, McCourty, Gronk, Solder, Dowling.

14 for 21 and 14 for 20 if you don't count Marquise Hill.

8 or 9 of these guys were Pro Bowlers

 

[cupofjoe1962]

..and Randy Moss wasn't coming off 4 straight 1000yd seasons either, Selective memory much? But you ARE right, Brown is no Randy Moss. No one was.

Moss scored 23 touchdowns & 1493 yards
Well worth a 3rd round pick

 

[Ring 6]

No he was saying brown is better than all those 1st round picks we made. In answer to some saying a 1st rounder is more important than AJ

That’s not what he said. Read his words.

 

[Bill Lee]

If the Pats win the Super Bowl this year Dianna Russini should get a ring for all of her hard work helping make it happen.

That, and Mrs V and Mr R for being so open-minded about it all.

 

[Drake&BarmoreFTW]

Hell yeah, let's go!

 

[PatsFan2]

Oh, no no, you don't get to straddle that fence.

They have AJ Brown now. According to you, they should win the next 3 Super Bowls.

Tommy you know we go way way back.

 

[Diffs4]

The Patriots basically gave up the equivalent of a 2nd rounder and 5th rounder in 2027 for Brown. That is fair value. I don't think either side fleeced the other or got fleeced.

Well the compensation is based on the Patriots 2027 season isn't it.

There's a big difference between the 1st round pick being 26-32 and it being in the top 15 if the Pats have a bad season.

You can't properly judge the trade until you know exactly what the pick was, not all first rounders are created equal, the Patriots being a playoff team for the next 2 seasons (especially 2027 for the trade purpose) eliminates the possibility of the disastrous scenario where you're giving away a premium top half of the first round pick.

2028 is the year of the first round pick, not 2027. If you choose a year to suck, you would choose next year and not 2028. So I understand your point, but next year would not hurt nearly as bad as 2028 as the Pats still have their first round pick. Of course, I hope we are great in both years and this is a nonfactor.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Moss scored 23 touchdowns & 1493 yards
Well worth a 3rd round pick

They got Moss for a 4th, got two HOF caliber years out of him, and then traded him for a 3rd. Great work by Belichick.

 

[TommyD4207]

Tommy you know we go way way back.

We do

 

[Huckleberry1]

We do

Give 2 a break, he was still upset they didn't trade the 3rd pick in the draft for Justin Fields, and then wasted the pick on Drake Maye, when they could have built around a wide receiver.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

It's done. I guess they didn't listen to my advice (ha ha!): no more than a 3 and a 5.
I've been a Pats fan forever, but this is a Lombardi play. Nothing else justifies a 1 at this point. I can only hope I'm wrong.
So, I guess I'll see everybody who's over the moon about this at the podium in SoFi next February.

 

[Ross12]

Where does this leave Boutte?

I’ve been expecting for several weeks now for him to be traded once Brown was acquired, but now that they actually have Brown, I’m kinda hoping they don’t. I get it’s a crowded room, but if he’s not disgruntled, it would be nice to have him one more year and then see if they can make a competitive offer for him as he nears free agency.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Let's make a deal. Anyone bummed about the player or the trade should not revel in any of the success the Pats and Maye have on plays that involve AJB. Take a pee break, grab another snack or beer out of the fridge, have a fond and solemn remembrance of Kashon Boutte, and join us for the next series.

Sure. Yeah. Whatever.
This is a Lombardi move.
So, what I do promise is to grab a snack during the trophy presentation at SoFi next February if Brown put them over the top. I've watched every presentation since XXXVI. I'm glad Brown's a Patriot, but a 1 was too much.
If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Sure.
Also the season your GOAT GM got beat by a MASH unit at home, barely winning one of the softest divisions in NFL history, while Vrabel and co. took 3/4th of an NFL-caliber team to a Super Bowl.

I think they played different teams. Not sure where you find an equivalence, but whatever.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

One-If My hero.

Can you imagine @TommyD4207 is on his knees the second we trade for A J Brown after all the grief he has given you over WRs? I give you a lot of grief too, but my grief is wrapped in love.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

We often agree, but I don't get your perspective now.

The wise thinking has always been get it during the QB's rookie contract.

Well it's year 3.

Yeah there are risks, but there aren't more than half a dozen guys I would want more. Even if you don't agree with that, they are still taking a shot during the window when the team is supposed to spend.

There's no more five year plans. Yes it will be harder this season with the schedule, but if Maye is really good (and they have to go ahead as if he is) the roster is good enough to take it's chances now.

Any WR comes with risks. It's one of the positions to overpay. I don't see a problem.

 

[Diffs4]

I'm actually surprised to see so much negativity from all you armchair GM's on here. Sorry you're disappointed, but I'm excited about this, and I'm not going to let the internet "armchair GMs" rain on my parade! Fans often react with immediate skepticism or negativity because change is scary and giving up draft capital feels risky. But looking at the big picture, this trade makes a ton of sense for the Patriots.

When you look at trades from a truly balanced perspective, a classic "win-win" scenario often involves one team trading away elite talent to reset their timeline or locker room, while the other team pays a premium to get immediate, game-changing help.

Why the Patriots Win​

Pairing a star youg quarterback like Drake Maye with an established superstar receiver is the ultimate textbook move for developing a young franchise QB.

• Instant Impact: While draft picks are exciting, they are always a gamble. With an elite veteran, New England gets a proven product who commands double-teams immediately and completely changes how opposing defenses have to scheme against them.

Why the Eagles Win​

From Philadelphia’s perspective, getting a 1st-round draft pick in two years and a 5th-round pick next year is an incredible haul, especially if the rumored locker room friction was real.

• Culture and Chemistry: Football is a team game, and if a player is reportedly a distraction, removing that friction can often lead to addition by subtraction. It allows the rest of the locker room to reset.
• The "Knee Risk" & Asset Management: Elite wide receivers are highly physical players. By moving on now, the Eagles insulate themselves from the risk of a major injury (like a sudden knee blowout) hurting his value later, all while netting a massive future draft asset to keep their roster young and financially flexible.

It seems to me that Kyle Brandt hit the nail on the head at the end of the following clip, and sometimes you have to tune out the instant online outrage and look at how a trade strategically sets up both franchises for what they actually need right now. For the Pats, that's protecting and elevating their prize young quarterback, elevating them from a Super Bowl contender to perhaps one of the favorites to win it all. For the Eagles, it's maintaining long-term stability and draft capital.

Grade the trade: Patriots get a superstar receiver in A.J. Brown to pair with Drake Maye

Nice analysis by Brandt but I could not disagree more with the Eagles win because they got an incredible haul. A first round pick two years from now and a fifth round pick next year is far from an incredible haul. Most people think the Eagles did not get enough for AJ Brown, except here of course. I think the compensation was fair for both teams but an incredible haul, please.