Official Free Agency 2018

[maineman209]

Looks like LB day today. Mid-low tier LBs starting to go. And w McClellin out and only 4 LBs on the roster (well 5 if you include Grigsby) . Pats should add a vet or two.

Looking at M.Flowers, Casillas, Worillow . Galette, Barwin, Bowan etc. still out there, daddy Derrick Johnson was still productive last season, Cushing and Timmons waiting for redemption..

Decent selection for a (relatively) cheap backstop/bridge LB. Some quick snapshots:

M. Flowers, 6025/245 (26)
... showed some potential in 355 D-snaps in 2017 (w/ no Camp)
... good ST contributor

Casillas, 6'1"/230 (31)
... mostly ST fom 2009-2014 (NOR, TAM, NE)
... full-time starter w/NYG past three seasons; good tackle & PD numbers
... not playing ST so much anymore
... coming off season-ending neck stinger

Worrilow, 6'1"/235 (28)
... tackling machine his first 3 seasons in ATL
... last 2 (ATL, then DET), mostly ST/reserve LB

Gallette, 6'2"/260 (30)
... starting OLB in NOR 3-4, 2013-2014; more sack-master than run-defender
... tore Achilles twice, missing both 2015 & 2016 seasons
... rotational OLB in WAS 3-4 in 2017; 20 tackles/3 sacks
... NO ST work, ever

Barwin, 6'3"/255 (31)
... solid all-around 3-4 OLB starter in HOU 2009-2012 (missed 2010 w/ broken ankle)
... solid starting 3-4 OLB again in Philly 2013-2015
... only decent at staring DE when Schwarz brought in the 4-3 in 2016
... unspectacular as starting OLB in Wade's 3-4 with the Rams in 2017

Bowman, 6'1"/230 (30)
... All-Pro ILB starting ILB 2011-2015 in SFO 3-4
... missed 2014 with knee injury & most of 2016 w/ torn Achilles
... decent (but unhappy) for 5 games at MLB in SFO 4-3 in 2017 (they switched)
... much better in OAK 3-4 when they picked him up after SFO released him

Johnson, 6'3"/245 (35)
... solid starting OB in KC's 4-3, 2005-2008
... even better at ILB after KC switched to 3-4 in 2009 (thru 2013)
... missed 2014 with to Achilles
... immediately returned to Pro Bowl level as full-time starter in 2015
(at age 33: 116 tackles ... 4 sacks ... 8 PD .. 2 INT)
... production has declined over past two seasons, but still not bad

 

[maineman209]

Tobin's net cap hit under the "Rule of 51" is only about $27k, since his cap hit pushes the nearly-equal cap hit of another player down below the cutoff line.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Tobin's net cap hit under the "Rule of 51" is only about $27k, since his cap hit pushes the nearly-equal cap hit of another player down below the cutoff line.

It's also under the 7th round compensation pick threshold. In fact, it might qualify for the veterans' minimum. If that's the case, it may not impact the compensatory formula (i.e. we might get the 6th rounder for Lewis back).

 

[luuked]

It's also under the 7th round compensation pick threshold. In fact, it might qualify for the veterans' minimum. If that's the case, it may not impact the compensatory formula (i.e. we might get the 6th rounder for Lewis back).

It is almost like the front office folks know what they are doing.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

It is almost like the front office folks know what they are doing.

Yeah, obviously.... for us laymen though, it's still a bit of a black box. If you read OverTheCap's description of this, it sounds like there's still a chance he could be considered a qualifying player for whatever reason; there have been a few instances in the recent past where it's happened and they don't quite know why. But in most cases they don't qualify.

The Basics and Methodology of Projecting the NFL's Compensatory Draft Picks | Over the Cap

It is important to note that the qualification threshold may have changed considerably since AdamJT13 stopped projecting the compensatory picks, resulting in more players qualifying as CFAs than in the past. For example, in 2009 Adam observed the threshold was around $850,000 APY, and in 2010 Adam estimated it closer to $900,000 APY. But in 2013, the signing of Philip Wheeler counted against Oakland despite only making the veteran minimum of $700,000 at the time. Perhaps it could have been explained by the fact that he played 98.5% of the snaps on defense in 2012. But in 2014 there were several qualifying low value players that played much less. The most stark example was Brian Leonard qualifying in favor for Cincinnati on a veteran minimum of $715,000 despite only playing in 28.1% of the offensive snaps in 2013. Similarly, Mike Pollak qualified against Cincinnati on a minimum salary benefit contract of $780,000 despite only appearing in 32.4% of 2013’s offensive snaps.

 

[Love The Drake]

Yeah, obviously.... for us laymen though, it's still a bit of a black box. If you read OverTheCap's description of this, it sounds like there's still a chance he could be considered a qualifying player for whatever reason; there have been a few instances in the recent past where it's happened and they don't quite know why. But in most cases they don't qualify.

The Basics and Methodology of Projecting the NFL's Compensatory Draft Picks | Over the Cap

I think this refers to whether the NFL team is from New York or somewhere else?

 

[Soliel]

I have a fool proof way of figuring comp picks.

If it’s the jets+2
Any team=0
Pats= -2

Take away two from whatever it should be and you’ll always nail it

 

[maineman209]

It's also under the 7th round compensation pick threshold. In fact, it might qualify for the veterans' minimum. If that's the case, it may not impact the compensatory formula (i.e. we might get the 6th rounder for Lewis back).

I think Tobin's deal actually is veteran minimum contract (w/ benefit), although I alos think it likely will impact the Pats't total comp picks. AFAIK, any UFA signing counts against the team, and contract levels/playing time only effect the determination of wht round-level the comp pick is worth.

I agree, though, that the formula seems to be exceedingly difficult to reverse-engineer.

 

[Soliel]

Ugg. I’ve been thinking gronk would return but B.B. is looking at hurst so?? Hmm

 

[Love The Drake]

Ugg. I’ve been thinking gronk would return but B.B. is looking at hurst so?? Hmm

Due dilligence

 

[jah]

Ugg. I’ve been thinking gronk would return but B.B. is looking at hurst so?? Hmm

BB does not scout for need.

 

[maineman209]

IIRC, Branch is technically a UFA (something to do with his roster bonus being an option bonus). So, if the Lions sign him (rotsa ruck), it helps the Pats in the comp pick calculations (until the end of Camp when he's still not in shape and gets cut).

 

[Sciz]

Ugg. I’ve been thinking gronk would return but B.B. is looking at hurst so?? Hmm

Hurst is a good player to spend extra time evaluating, because his age means that teams will want to know how much he’s capable of contributing immediately. His draft value takes a huge hit if teams decide that he isn’t ready to contribute as a rookie, for example, because by his second season he’s already going to be 26.

 

[maineman209]

I’ve been thinking gronk would return but B.B. is looking at hurst so??

Due dilligence

BB does not scout for need.

Due diligence. Misdirect. Just likes the guy. Just being a coach (like with Chubb).

Or, genuinely scouting a prospect who's older (will be 25 as a rookie), and who can both block and catch.

Wouldn't be bad to bring in the Pats next (potential) #1 TE while Gronk is still on the team. OTOH, Hurst may well be the first TE selected in this draft, so it might require using the #43 or even the #31 to snag him.

While we're expecting (desperately hoping?) that BB will spend his higher picks on defense (or LT), he's done stranger things in the draft.

 

[maineman209]

 

[DaBruinz]

It's also under the 7th round compensation pick threshold. In fact, it might qualify for the veterans' minimum. If that's the case, it may not impact the compensatory formula (i.e. we might get the 6th rounder for Lewis back).

I think Tobin's deal actually is veteran minimum contract (w/ benefit), although I alos think it likely will impact the Pats't total comp picks. AFAIK, any UFA signing counts against the team, and contract levels/playing time only effect the determination of wht round-level the comp pick is worth.

I agree, though, that the formula seems to be exceedingly difficult to reverse-engineer.

It won't impact the compensatory formula at all because it's too low.. Vet Minimum Contracts haven't affected Comp Picks for as long as I can remember.

 

[captain stone]

Looks like LB day today. Mid-low tier LBs starting to go. And w McClellin out and only 4 LBs on the roster (well 5 if you include Grigsby) . Pats should add a vet or two.

Looking at M.Flowers, Casillas, Worillow . Galette, Barwin, Bowan etc. still out there, daddy Derrick Johnson was still productive last season, Cushing and Timmons waiting for redemption..

Bill: "Who needs LBs & Safeties who can actually play the positions when we re-signed Brandon King, Nate Ebner and now Matty Slater?"

 

[Love The Drake]

Bill: "Who needs LBs & Safeties who can actually play the positions when we re-signed Brandon King, Nate Ebner and now Matty Slater?"

They all must thank God everyday for Bill Belichick.
As must our ST coach because the stacked talent would make any coach look better

 

[Deus Irae]

BB does not scout for need.

Sure he does

"It starts with value," Belichick said. "You value the players, however you put a grade on them. You value them, and then within that, there’s a draft strategy, maybe where you think that player is going to go in the draft, what the league thinks of him relative to what your individual team thinks of him, and need can sometimes factor into that, too, or maybe the compilation of your roster.

Bill Belichick Compares Value to Positional Need Heading Into Draft

 

[Love The Drake]

Suh cancels visit with Raiders set to return home and decide between Titans Saints Rams.
I say Saints make the most sense.
In New Orleans he is on a superbowl favorite.
Playing with a hall of fame Quarterback.
Leading a revamped Defense and playing in a dome.
Titans he joins a talented D but a offense not ready for prime time.
Longshot to make playoffs.
In Rams he joins the number 1 offense will be on what should be the best defense in the NFL but will play second star to Donald.
Im going to say Saints.