Odd QB rating

[Deus Irae]

and thus tells me that QB rating has very little to do with winning. lol Yards per pass is more about what happens after the catch is made than the throw itself. The thing that wins, is constant consistency, not a couple big plays and a couple bad plays.

The year on this is a bit in the past, but not so much that the concept won't hold up:

Since 1966, the start of the Super Bowl era, there have been 219 quarterbacks who have had a Passer Rating of 100.0 or higher in a playoff game. Of those 219 games, the QB’s team has won 192 of those games, a winning percentage of .877. You can certainly make the point that a good QB performance (100.0 or better) in a playoff game will lead to victory and advancement in the post-season.

QBs who had terrible games, a Passer Rating under 50 in a playoff game. Since 1966, there have been 190 playoff games where the QB had a Passer Rating under 50 in that game. Those teams have won only 24 of the 190 games, a winning percentage of only .126.

QB success a key to NFL playoff victories


Passer rating isn't perfect, but it's a good place to start.

 

[Pats1971]

The year on this is a bit in the past, but not so much that the concept won't hold up:






QB success a key to NFL playoff victories


Passer rating isn't perfect, but it's a good place to start.

For sure, I mean it goes without saying, but like everything else it has flaws, because football games are not black and white. Another issue is, Qb rating does not care who's fault it is. If your receivers drop 5 passes, it goes against QB rating, if a receiver tips a ball in the air and its picked it goes against Qb rating. If you throw a 2 yard pass and a guy runs for 80, it goes to QB rating, if you throw a 20 yard pass and he is tackled right there it goes to QB rating. As you said though, good place to start.

 

[Deus Irae]

For sure, I mean it goes without saying, but like everything else it has flaws, because football games are not black and white. Another issue is, Qb rating does not care who's fault it is. If your receivers drop 5 passes, it goes against QB rating, if a receiver tips a ball in the air and its picked it goes against Qb rating. If you throw a 2 yard pass and a guy runs for 80, it goes to QB rating, if you throw a 20 yard pass and he is tackled right there it goes to QB rating. As you said though, good place to start.

Nobody here has claimed that it's without flaws. Your claim was that it had very little to do with winning. I showed you evidence of what is, in fact, a strong correlation. Here is another article on the subject:

Kerry J. Byrne: In defense of passer rating

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Depends. Some teams are more dependent on the QB than others. The more you throw, the more your QB rating could go down, which is why I look at other factors. If I showed you the PFF grades on the same list, it looks completely different.

I just flashed back to "The More You Knowwww" (with the little logo and the little jingle) The more you throwww.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

One other point on passer rating: each category has limits. You can't have negative contributions, and there's an upper bound too, on NFL stats (not NCAA).

That's why you get almost 40 even if you just throw every pass into the dirt (max score on INTs, with 0%).

 

[sb1]

In a team sport like football it's so hard to come up with the perfect rating measuring individual performances and how they are doing relative to their competition. I could be a QB that throws every single pass perfectly but if my receivers drop every one I get a lower passer rating.

It's easier to do in baseball (OPS+) because baseball isn't as much of a team sport as football.

I think DVOA is the best we have but even that isn't perfect.

 

[Pats1971]

I just flashed back to "The More You Knowwww" (with the little logo and the little jingle) The more you throwww.

Yeah and its odd. So if a QB has to throw a lot in a game, typically this will make his td percentage go down becuase he is throwing 5 or 6 passes to get down the field. For his QB rating, it would be better if he handed off 5 times and got down to the 10 yard line threw one pass for a td.

 

[Pats1971]

Nobody here has claimed that it's without flaws. Your claim was that it had very little to do with winning. I showed you evidence of what is, in fact, a strong correlation. Here is another article on the subject:

Kerry J. Byrne: In defense of passer rating

Ok....I stand by it has little to do with winning. You showed an article that said QB's that had a 40 Qb rating in the playoffs dont win much....well duh. lol I am talking about Qb's that are 98 and ons that are 102, is not a indicator of winning. Of course if its 40. If its 40 there are way more things wrong than Qb rating. Here is the top 5 Qb ratings all time for QB's.

Qb rating leaders
1. Patrick Mahomes
2. Deshaun Watson
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. Russell Wilson
5. Dak Prescott




Now lets look at Qb's with best winning pct top 7
1. brady
2. Peyton
3. Big Ben
4. Rodgers
5. Elway


Now lets look at Qb's and superbowl wins
1. Brady
2. Montana
3. Bradshaw
4. Aikman
5. Eli Manning/peyton/Ben



How about most wins
1. Brady
2. Favre
3. Manning
4. Brees
5. Ben


So. In the top 5 Qb's in Qb rating only 1 is any of the 3 winning categories all time.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

"Ratings" are dumb as the primary way to assess your QB. If my guy wins, and wins SBs, and your guy has good stats, just no. If they both win things, then you can use things like ratings and stats to talk about how.