"Not Worth The 4th Pick"

[Rdforty2]

Just heard Daniel Jeremiah discussing the draft. Not specifically the Patriots(was actually discussing Jeanty ti the Raiders, I believe) but mentioned that this isn't the draft to chase stars. Chase starters. There just aren't the true stars in the draft, so you need to realize getting a good starter is worth it.

Just further emphasizes people need to realize whats on the table at 4. I can understand prioritizing Graham over Campbell or Campbell over Mebou, etc. Whoever the team picks at 4 isnt necessarily the franchise changer you traditionally want at 4. We should get a very good player, even if its not THE guy we want at 4. Further says thats why he has the 2 tight ends and Jeanty so high in his rankings. Hes more certain of them than other guys.

 

[mgteich]

1st round LT in 2026 works.

Let's look forward to drafting our 5-year LT starter in 2024.
Let's look forward to drafting our 5-year LT starter in 2025.
And now, let's look forward to drafting a 5-year LT starter in 2026.

Will we have higher picks next year?
Will there be better LT's available when we pick?

Haven't we yet learned that this approach may never land a 5-year LT starter.

 

[DarrylS]

I am unsure about Hunter, he seems like a guy who would get along, but how about if he stirs up BS as he believes the team is not using him right??. very skeptical that he can play both ways.
There is something about him I do not care for..
I am in the camp of trading back a bit and going for Jeanty or Tyler Warren which would change the whole character of our offense... both those guys are proven hard core football players who would fit into the culture Vrabel hopes for.
Then at 38 Ersery or whoever is the best T available then best WR..
I know we would then have 3 TE's but Hooper is only signed for one year.
Hopefully this is the last year we draft this high in the draft, it causes too many problems and too many scenarios to consider..

 

[gobesmug]

I am unsure about Hunter, he seems like a guy who would get along, but how about if he stirs up BS as he believes the team is not using him right??. very skeptical that he can play both ways.
There is something about him I do not care for..
I am in the camp of trading back a bit and going for Jeanty or Tyler Warren which would change the whole character of our offense... both those guys are proven hard core football players who would fit into the culture Vrabel hopes for.
Then at 38 Ersery or whoever is the best T available then best WR..
I know we would then have 3 TE's but Hooper is only signed for one year.
Hopefully this is the last year we draft this high in the draft, it causes too many problems and too many scenarios to consider..

If no player is worth taking at #4 then what makes you think a team would be willing to trade up to #4 to begin with?

 

[mgteich]

If no player is worth taking at #4 then what makes you think a team would be willing to trade up to #4 to begin with?

I don't understand the logic of thinking that no pick is worth #4. Are folks saying that 4-15 are approximately equal? If so, the issue is who wants who and who is willing to trade up so as to not get just who's left when they pick.

If I picked 9th, it might make a big difference whether I chose at 4 or 9. Would I give a 5th to move up? a 4th? a 3rd?

What if pick at 12? same questions
==========
I can understand someone saying that it is worth getting our guy at 4, rather than trading down and getting a 3rd; Just get our guy! However, if we have 2 guys (say Simmons and Conerly) I could see trading down to 9th for a 3rd and choosing from whoever of the 2 is left.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Are folks saying that 4-15 are approximately equal. If so, the issue is who wants who and who is willing to trade up so as to not get just who's left when they pick.

Don't forget you also have to pay the high picks more. Going rate for pick 4 is about $35m over 4 years, with over $20m as signing bonus.

Sure you will get something if you trade down from 4 to say 10. Just not what the trade value chart suggests (unless someone wants QB2).

 

[DarrylS]

If no player is worth taking at #4 then what makes you think a team would be willing to trade up to #4 to begin with?

One teams trash is another teams treasure.....

 

[manxman2601]

If we can't get a trade down, I think I'm leaning heavily towards Will Campbell for the 4th pick. I still like Membou and am intrigued by Jalon Walker although I think he's even more of a projection, and therefore risk, than Campbell. My reasoning.

1. It solves the biggest need on the roster for now. Now we don't have to worry about whether Simmons or Conerly fall into tradable range, or giving up a valuable pick to get them.

2. Yes, there are some issues on tape but unlike most of his rivals, Campbell has been challenged in the biggest cauldron football offers outside the NFL, the SEC. He has the experience the others lack.

3. He's only 21 so there's still room to grow.

4. It gives us some clarity for the 2025 season. Campbell almost certainly starts day one at LT and unless he really craps the bed, or gets injured, will stay there all season.

5. It may be the case that we will still need to look for a LT in the future but I don't see any other prospect giving us future clarity at the position any more than Campbell. They all have issues.

6. It's possible, based upon his tape, that he might not be the final answer at the position and in that case he'll be moved to LG. I don't think that's a disaster as I think he can be a potential pro-bowl guard.

7. On that point, it's not like LGs haven't been important during the dynasty years. Campbell has a good chance to be a legitimate successor to Mankins and Thuney.

8. At LT, I think he can be as good as Matt Light at a minimum. That worked out OK.

9. His leadership and experience will be valued by Vrabel. As Greg Bedard said, Campbell, whether at LT or LG, will be an offensive line leader for a decade.

Is he the ideal pick at 4? No, but then, other than Hunter and Carter, I don't believe that prospect exists in this draft.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

If we can't get a trade down, I think I'm leaning heavily towards Will Campbell for the 4th pick. I still like Membou and am intrigued by Jalon Walker although I think he's even more of a projection, and therefore risk, than Campbell. My reasoning.

1. It solves the biggest need on the roster for now. Now we don't have to worry about whether Simmons or Conerly fall into tradable range, or giving up a valuable pick to get them.

2. Yes, there are some issues on tape but unlike most of his rivals, Campbell has been challenged in the biggest cauldron football offers outside the NFL, the SEC. He has the experience the others lack.

3. He's only 21 so there's still room to grow.

4. It gives us some clarity for the 2025 season. Campbell almost certainly starts day one at LT and unless he really craps the bed, or gets injured, will stay there all season.

5. It may be the case that we will still need to look for a LT in the future but I don't see any other prospect giving us future clarity at the position any more than Campbell. They all have issues.

6. It's possible, based upon his tape, that he might not be the final answer at the position and in that case he'll be moved to LG. I don't think that's a disaster as I think he can be a potential pro-bowl guard.

7. On that point, it's not like LGs haven't been important during the dynasty years. Campbell has a good chance to be a legitimate successor to Mankins and Thuney.

8. At LT, I think he can be as good as Matt Light at a minimum. That worked out OK.

9. His leadership and experience will be valued by Vrabel. As Greg Bedard said, Campbell, whether at LT or LG, will be an offensive line leader for a decade.

Is he the ideal pick at 4? No, but then, other than Hunter and Carter, I don't believe that prospect exists in this draft.

If Membou can't switch to LT, he will be a good to great RT. Then in 2026 the Pats can try to find a LT. If Campbell moves to LG, the Pats are in the same boat in 2026 with no RT or LT. If the Pats are going to ignore BPA (Jeanty or Graham), the Pats should try to worse case draft a tackle, Membou, not a guard, Campbell.

Both Membou and Campbell are 21 and played in the SEC.

Please spare me the "team leader for 10 years" stuff. Draft athleticism/size and upside over "team leader" every single time.

 

[manxman2601]

"If Membou can't switch to LT, he will be a good to great RT"

Campbell doesn't need to switch to LT, he's already there. Membou adds a layer of uncertainty. Who plays LT this season if he can't switch?

If Campbell moves to LG, the Pats are in the same boat in 2026 with no RT or LT.

Just because we draft Campbell at 4 doesn't mean we can't draft a RT like Trapilo later.

Please spare me the "team leader for 10 years" stuff.

You may not think leadership is important, but Vrabel clearly does.

Draft athleticism...over "team leader" every single time.

Membou was 2/100 faster in the 10 yard split and 2" better in the jumps which were elite for both players. If he is more athletic than Cambell, it's barely.

Draft size...over "team leader" every single time.

Membou's arms are 1/2 inch longer but he's also 2" shorter.

 

[Clonamery]

If Membou can't switch to LT, he will be a good to great RT. Then in 2026 the Pats can try to find a LT. If Campbell moves to LG, the Pats are in the same boat in 2026 with no RT or LT. If the Pats are going to ignore BPA (Jeanty or Graham), the Pats should try to worse case draft a tackle, Membou, not a guard, Campbell.

Both Membou and Campbell are 21 and played in the SEC.

Please spare me the "team leader for 10 years" stuff. Draft athleticism/size and upside over "team leader" every single time.

Both Membou and Campbell have their risk for playing in 2025 at LT, but BB chose leadership (team Captains) and football intelligence and toughness over raw athleticism more often than not.

Trade down, let's party.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Both Membou and Campbell have their risk for playing in 2025 at LT, but BB chose leadership (team Captains) and football intelligence and toughness over raw athleticism more often than not.

Trade down, let's party.

BB chose athleticism when he was younger, and chose leadership when he was older. Which were his best drafts?

 

[Clonamery]

BB chose athleticism when he was younger, and chose leadership when he was older. Which were his best drafts?

When he chose Brady that superior athlete in 2000.

 

[manxman2601]

BB chose athleticism when he was younger, and chose leadership when he was older. Which were his best drafts?

Some of his best picks were Mankins, Thuney, Mayo, McCourty, Hightower and Edelman.

I would ask you to consider Hightower v Chandler Jones though as an example of leadership v talent.

Not every pick has to be about leadership, of course, but it's pretty clear it's something Vrabel is committed to in this first season of his rebuild.

 

[manxman2601]

Dane Brugler has 4 edges in his top 10. It should be noted that he’s been high on Jalon Walker and Shemar Stewart from the start. Will Campbell at no 6 for him.

 

[manxman2601]

If we can't get a trade down, I think I'm leaning heavily towards Will Campbell for the 4th pick. I still like Membou and am intrigued by Jalon Walker although I think he's even more of a projection, and therefore risk, than Campbell. My reasoning.

1. It solves the biggest need on the roster for now. Now we don't have to worry about whether Simmons or Conerly fall into tradable range, or giving up a valuable pick to get them.

2. Yes, there are some issues on tape but unlike most of his rivals, Campbell has been challenged in the biggest cauldron football offers outside the NFL, the SEC. He has the experience the others lack.

3. He's only 21 so there's still room to grow.

4. It gives us some clarity for the 2025 season. Campbell almost certainly starts day one at LT and unless he really craps the bed, or gets injured, will stay there all season.

5. It may be the case that we will still need to look for a LT in the future but I don't see any other prospect giving us future clarity at the position any more than Campbell. They all have issues.

6. It's possible, based upon his tape, that he might not be the final answer at the position and in that case he'll be moved to LG. I don't think that's a disaster as I think he can be a potential pro-bowl guard.

7. On that point, it's not like LGs haven't been important during the dynasty years. Campbell has a good chance to be a legitimate successor to Mankins and Thuney.

8. At LT, I think he can be as good as Matt Light at a minimum. That worked out OK.

9. His leadership and experience will be valued by Vrabel. As Greg Bedard said, Campbell, whether at LT or LG, will be an offensive line leader for a decade.

Is he the ideal pick at 4? No, but then, other than Hunter and Carter, I don't believe that prospect exists in this draft.

Something I saw in a twitter comment which is a good point.

If you end up moving Will Campbell to LG, it probably means you’ve found a LT who is better. How is that a bad thing?

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Campbell doesn't need to switch to LT, he's already there. Membou adds a layer of uncertainty. Who plays LT this season if he can't switch.

Q: Why did you mention Thuney and Mankins? A: Because we all saw Campbell's tape against Kennard.

Just because we draft Campbell at 4 doesn't mean we can't draft a RT like Trapilo later.

Great idea. Now we have two mediocre tackle draft picks.

You may not think leadership is important, but Vrabel clearly does.

I didn't say it was unimportant. I think "leadership qualities" and "locker room presence" get overblown. Assuming the player is a normal balanced person, I think athleticism is a far greater indicator of NFL success.

Membou was 2/100 faster in the 10 yard split and 2" better in the jumps which were elite for both players. If he is more athletic than Cambell, it's barely.

Did you know Campbell is also expected to be selected in the NHL draft?

 

[manxman2601]

Something I saw in a twitter comment which is a good point.

If you end up moving Will Campbell to LG, it probably means you’ve found a LT who is better. How is that a bad thing?

The full article:

Polarizing might be a strong label for Campbell, a consensus top-10 pick with projections that indicate stardom.

"He's going to be awesome -- All-Pro caliber guard, and if he's a tackle, he will be better than at least half the tackles in the NFL right off the bat," a high-ranking personnel evaluator with an NFC team said. "Captain, started every game, instinctive. Don't overthink it."

Despite his status as a consensus All-American and recipient of the Jacobs Blocking Trophy, debate about his arm length won't quite dissipate. He measured in at 32 5/8 inches at the NFL scouting combine and 33 inches at LSU's pro day. Some teams prefer their tackles to have at least a 34-inch reach.

The top tackles from the 2021 draft, Detroit's Penei Sewell and Los Angeles' Rashawn Slater, measured below that 34-inch mark and have been excellent pros. But when comparing Campbell to them, one AFC exec noted "Sewell was more violent and Slater was quicker ... the lack of ideal length or speed is a factor."

Still, most football purists recognize that Campbell simply knows how to play football -- and thrived in the SEC.

"It [Campbell's measurables] was a thing for a while, but I think people have gotten over it," an AFC executive said.

Added an NFC personnel man: "It's a concern that limits his ability in some way, and he gets beat on the inside edge a little bit. But he knows how to play. It's not like, 'Oh my gosh, I can't draft him because of arm length.'"

The NFL draft's most polarizing prospects: What scouts, execs are saying

Jalen Milroe, Shedeur Sanders and others have provoked a variety of opinions among scouts and execs. Here are the most interesting cases.

www.espn.com

 

[manxman2601]

Q: Why did you mention Thuney and Mankins? A: Because we all saw Campbell's tape against Kennard.

Great idea. Now we have two mediocre tackle draft picks.

I didn't say it was unimportant. I think "leadership qualities" and "locker room presence" get overblown. Assuming the player is a normal balanced person, I think athleticism is a far greater indicator of NFL success.

Did you know Campbell is also expected to be selected in the NHL draft?

I don’t get the NHL reference firstly.

You know why I mentioned Thuney and Mankins, I was quite explicit about the context.

Plenty of people itk still rank Campbell as the top OL in this draft including Dane Brugler. Campbell is going to be a better LT than Vedarian Lowe so even if he’s a stop gap until next year when he switches to LG and becomes a pro-bowl level one, we’re still in plus territory.

I note you didn’t answer the question about what happens if Membou can’t switch. At least in my scenario, we’ve upgraded at LT with someone we actually know can play the position.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I note you didn’t answer the question about what happens if Membou can’t switch.

Membou plays RT at a high level and we find a LT in 2026. Trying to fill all the holes at once leads to bad decisions. It is a weak tackle class so we take the best tackle, even if it is a RT.

At least in my scenario, we’ve upgraded at LT with someone we actually know can play the position.

I think that is a pretty bad approach for #4 in the draft. It is a weak draft, but I think we should look for more than an upgrade at #4.