NFL Week 16 Games

[slam]

Jimmy never loses.

He's the anti Jamie Collins.

 

[Wheelman]

Had I known no game has ever ended 44-33, I would have used that score for every score prediction.

 

[moejr]

For a team that supposedly has a stout D the Jags let the Niners hang 44 on them

 

[Whitt25]

Jags will win their Wildcard game, and inevitably lose to either us or Pittsburgh.

Not if they come out playing like this, and since it's been so long since they've even been to the postseason, they probably won't know what to do.

 

[Froob]

 

[BradyFTW!]

For a team that supposedly has a stout D the Jags let the Niners hang 44 on them

Combination of a bad game, Bortles reverting, and Garoppolo playing out of his mind. Just look at these DVOA stats:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2017 DEFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

The Jaguars have the #1 overall defensive DVOA by a small margin, but and they have the #1 pass defense DVOA by a mile. That pass defense is the real deal, easily the best in the league. What the 49ers did today was extremely impressive, it's a shame that people are going to undersell it because they haven't watched a Jaguars game this year and don't realize how good that defense has been.

 

[nabwong]

Had I known no game has ever ended 44-33, I would have used that score for every score prediction.

No game has ever ended 1-1.

 

[luuked]

Wonder why they didn’t kick in deep. No faith in Blake?

Personally I think of it more like two chances at a possession but that missed XP loomed large.

 

[HailHydra]

Posts like this are why this board has gone to absolute ****

But its true.

 

[PatsFan2]

Posts like this are why this board has gone to absolute ****

Build a Bridge and jump off it.

 

[BradyFTW!]

But its true.

Not really, if nobody was willing to offer more than the 49ers did then the Pats got the most value they could. Not their fault that something like 18 teams that could've desperately used Garoppolo were too stupid to make a better offer.

 

[PatsFan2]

Posts like this are why this board has gone to absolute ****

Not everybody see's the world through BB's @ss like you.

 

[fnordcircle]

Not everybody see's the world through BB's @ss like you.

Just fyi, defaulting to believing everything BB does is right is actually, statistically, the right call.

 

[Betterthanmost]

Posts like this are why this board has gone to absolute ****

This board has not gone ****. What are you on about? You can find some of the most technical content on football in here after every game. Tons of football education occurs throughout. I think some people are joking and it is rather the sarcasm meter of the board that has gone awry.

 

[Froob]

Personally I think of it more like two chances at a possession but that missed XP loomed large.

Well yeah, success rate at those aren’t great though. Could hopefully get the punt return around mid field.

 

[luuked]

Combination of a bad game, Bortles reverting, and Garoppolo playing out of his mind. Just look at these DVOA stats:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2017 DEFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

The Jaguars have the #1 overall defensive DVOA by a small margin, but and they have the #1 pass defense DVOA by a mile. That pass defense is the real deal, easily the best in the league. What the 49ers did today was extremely impressive, it's a shame that people are going to undersell it because they haven't watched a Jaguars game this year and don't realize how good that defense has been.

If anything this year has reinforced to me how flawed DVOA as a stat is.

Whatever the exact method is that they use to normalize teams to the mean it cant take into account situations like Jacksonville or the Ravens who both have pretty good defenses but als0 play a total cup cake schedule. In both cases the respective defensive DVOA gets completely overinflated just because they were able to shut down and grab a couple of turnovers against a group of horrible opponents (AFC North and AFC South).

Again they are good defenses but dont look particularly amazing to me.

 

[AtomicDawg]

Pats are going to get the 1 seed regardless but I would prefer it be tomorrow so they can sit some guys in week 17.

 

[AtomicDawg]

 

[BradyFTW!]

If anything this year has reinforced to me how flawed DVOA as a stat is.

Whatever the exact method is that they use to normalize teams to the mean it cant take into account situations like Jacksonville or the Ravens who both have pretty good defenses but als0 play a total cup cake schedule. In both cases the respective defensive DVOA gets completely overinflated just because they were able to shut down and grab a couple of turnovers against a group of horrible opponents (AFC North and AFC South).

Again they are good defenses but dont look particularly amazing to me.

The Jaguars did beat the Ravens, Steelers, Chargers and Seahawks and the defense was the driving force behind all four wins. I would say they've played a pretty average schedule.

 

[luuked]

The Jaguars did beat the Ravens, Steelers, Chargers and Seahawks and the defense was the driving force behind all four wins. I would say they've played a pretty average schedule.

The Ravens are garbage, the Seahawks have lost the core of their defense and still almost crawled back into the game. The Chargers game was lost so many times for the Jags before LA gave the game back to the Jags again and again that I am not even sure I would count that one as a positive.

The only statement win was against the Steelers on an evening where they made Ben melt down.


And again my point is not that they are bad or average on defense. They are good - no question. But I dont really see anything special from them except their ability to come up with turnovers. Certainly not such an amazing defense as their DVOA would make you believe. The same is true for the Ravens imho