Myth: Patriots D benefits from great field position

[PF_SU]

There is this take floating out there that a big reason for the Patriots defense's low points allowed total since week 5 of the season is due to having great field position. From a superficial look the point appears to have some merit. The average starting field position of the Patriots' defense since week 5 is the opponents' 24 yard line, the best in the league. So it seems to be logical that with the offense having to drive more of the field the total amount of scoring drives would be lower.

But I wanted to take a closer look if this is really true. Because I remember the Patriots defense seemingly giving up a lot of long scoring drives this season, even after week 5. Therefore I used the Drive Finder on Pro-Football-Reference to filter for all drives that start between the opponents 25 and 49 yard line. Which aside from drives within the 25 also excludes drives that start in the defense's half of the field, which mostly end up in scores (this season drives that start in the defense's half ended in a score in 65.5% of the cases, compared to 30.6% for drives starting in the offense's half).

If the take that the Patriots' D benefits significantly from their good starting field position holds true, then the expectation should be for the defense's performance on a per-drive basis to be mediocre at best. Certainly not top of the field. So how was the result?

Since week 5 the Patriots' D (excluding kneel-down drives) faced 71 drives starting between the 25 and 49, which is middle of the pack. They allowed a score on 14 of them. That's a score on 19.7% of the drives which is leading the league, narrowly ahead of the Jaguars who allowed 16 scores on 81 drives for 19.8%. The Vikings come out third at 18 scores in 78 drives (23.1%).

Breaking down the 14 scores, there were 7 TDs and 7 FGs for a total of 70 points. This means, that on those, let's call them standard drives, the Patriots D allowed less than 1 point per drive (0.99 to be exact). The 7 TDs allowed in 71 drives place them second in terms of TD percentage at 9.9%, behind Jacksonville with 6 TDs (7.4%). Jacksonville and Minnesota's points per drive on those standard drives are 0.89 and 1.15 by the way.

Now, the next question is, do they benefit significantly from forcing turnovers (remember 2011 when a Patriots D that was 32nd in yardage was 3rd in TOs)? On those standard drives, the Patriots D has forced a total of 7 turnovers for a percentage of 9.9%. That ranks 25th in the league.

Then, have they benefitted from opponents missing (easy) FGs? On those 71 drives there were 3 missed FGs and a blocked one. Even if we tack on all those as makes, the Patriots' D would still rank 5th in scoring percentage. And it wasn't like all those misses were chip shots. The 3 missed ones were a 50 yarder by Steven Hauschka, a 49 yarder by Nick Folk and a 36 yarder by Matt Bryant.

For those wondering about yardage, the Patriots rank 15th in yards per drive on those with 29.1 and 2nd in plays per drive at 6.3.

Last but not least, how is the Patriots D doing on drives that start between the opponents' 1 and 24 yard lines? They have faced 53 such drives since week 5. And allowed 14 scores for a percentage of 26.4%, which is 22nd in the league. These 14 scores break down into 7 TDs and 7 FGs for 70 points (1.32 points per drive). That's right, the Patriots D since week 5 has allowed exactly as many scores on drives that start with supposedly great field position as on those with normal field position. Moreover, the opponents also missed 4 FGs on those drives. A 56 and 31 yarder by Nick Folk, a 40 yarder by Chandler Catanzaro last week and a 51 yarder by Nick Novak.

 

[sambam94]

interesting..good work!!

 

[Nikolai]

Love this ****! Great work.

 

[jimnance]

Nice post,man. Fits right in with Chatham's last podcast.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I think a better phrasing of this would be that "Field position does not mask deficiencies." IIRC, the defense does have the advantage of the best starting position in the league.

 

[PF_SU]

I think a better phrasing of this would be that "Field position does not mask deficiencies." IIRC, the defense does have the advantage of the best starting position in the league.

Which I have mentioned. Have you even read that post? The whole point of it is to show that the numbers don't back the assertion that the starting field position is a big reason for the low points allowed total. Because their defensive performance on drives that start at the 25 or beyond is significantly better than the numbers of the drives that start deep in the opponents' territory.

The correct conclusion would be, "The Patriots defense has a weakness of allowing scoring drives on long field. But on shorter field they perform like a top defensive unit."

 

[IllegalContact]

The pats defense does typically get great field position....but then the other team drives down the field, gets into the red zone, and either kicks a field goal or turns it over

 

[Ring 6]

I think a better analysis, if it can be dine, is to look at how many possessions started inside the -20, -20 to 50, 50 to +30 and inside the 30.

The difference between an average start at the 24 and an average start at the 31, could be per 10 drives:

10@24 vs 10@31 which isn’t a big difference
or
10@24 vs 9@24 and 1@+6 or 10@24 vs 8@24 plus 2 at +41 which definitely affects points allowed.

 

[PF_SU]

I think a better analysis, if it can be dine, is to look at how many possessions started inside the -20, -20 to 50, 50 to +30 and inside the 30.

The difference between an average start at the 24 and an average start at the 31, could be per 10 drives:

10@24 vs 10@31 which isn’t a big difference
or
10@24 vs 9@24 and 1@+6 or 10@24 vs 8@24 plus 2 at +41 which definitely affects points allowed.

Unfortunately the search engine does not allow to search for between specific lines. Only inside or outside, with the midfield as the breaker, so if you search "outside 25 yard line" it takes between 25 and 49. If you want 20 to 50 or whatever, it's no problem, if you want let's say 20-40, then you'd need to do a manual correction.

What I do know from the composing the post above is, excluding kneel-downs the Patriots D since week 5 has faced 127 drives. 53 have come inside the 24 yard line of the opponent, 71 have started between the 25 and 49 and the rest (3) have come in Patriots' territory.

 

[PF_SU]

I think a better analysis, if it can be dine, is to look at how many possessions started inside the -20, -20 to 50, 50 to +30 and inside the 30.

The difference between an average start at the 24 and an average start at the 31, could be per 10 drives:

10@24 vs 10@31 which isn’t a big difference
or
10@24 vs 9@24 and 1@+6 or 10@24 vs 8@24 plus 2 at +41 which definitely affects points allowed.

So I played around with the numbers:

Since week 5, excluding kneel-downs, there have been a total of 4473 drives league wide. The top-five in points allowed per drive are:

1) Jacksonville Jaguars - 1.19
2) Minnesota Vikings - 1.21
3) New England Patriots - 1.21
4) Los Angeles Chargers - 1.24
5) Philadelphia Eagles - 1.31
LEAGUE AVERAGE - 1.76

72.9% of all drives in the league have started between the 11 and 39 yard line of the offense. The Patriots D has the highest percentage in the league of drives starting in that area at 89.8% (114 of 127 drives, 7 came inside the offense's 10 and 3 between the 40 and 49 yard lines and 3 inside Patriots territory). The other teams of the top five in overall points per drive are at:

1) Jacksonville Jaguars - 73.7%
2) Minnesota Vikings - 76.8%
3) New England Patriots - 89.8%
4) Los Angeles Chargers - 76.3%
5) Philadelphia Eagles - 73.5%

So going by that it would seem that the Patriots defense's overall points per drive number has to be significantly benefitting from that good starting position, right? Then let's take a look at where the Patriots rank in terms of points allowed per drive in that specific area (11-39 yard line):

1) Minnesota Vikings - 1.07
2) Jacksonville Jaguars - 1.11
3) New England Patriots - 1.18
4) Baltimore Ravens - 1.28
5) Los Angeles Chargers - 1.30

So, even if it can't be denied that the Patriots D benefits from field position, it's not like they aren't performing very well if you perform a peer comparison by isolating the numbers to that specific area.

Next, breaking down the 11-39 yard line numbers further into two categories. One is between the 11-24 yard lines, and the other is between the 25-39 yard lines.

In terms of percentage of all drives starting between the 11-24 yard lines, the top-five are formed by:

1) Cincinnati Bengals - 36.6%
2) New England Patriots - 36.2%
3) Miami Dolphins - 35.9%
4) Los Angeles Chargers - 35.3%
5) Arizona Cardinals - 33.3%
LEAGUE AVERAGE - 29.6%

Again, the Patriots rank very high in terms of percentage of drives starting there. So which teams are in the top-five in points allowed per drive?

1) New Orleans Saints - 0.56
2) Baltimore Ravens - 0.80
3) Cleveland Browns - 0.92
4) Arizona Cardinals - 0.94
5) Minnesota Vikings - 0.97
LEAGUE AVERAGE - 1.41

So where are the Patriots?

19) Jacksonville Jaguars - 1.38
20) New England Patriots - 1.46
21) Buffalo Bills - 1.47

That's right, the Patriots in terms of points allowed on drives starting between the 11 and 24 yard lines are not only below average, the figure is also significantly higher than both, the overall points per drive number and points per drive number on drives starting between the 11 and 39 yard lines. Which means, when the Patriots D gets terrific field position, they aren't really making anything out of it.

On the flip side, this means that their points allowed per drive numbers for drives starting between the 25 and 39 yard lines has to be terrific. And this is absolutely correct:

1) Jacksonville Jaguars - 0.93
2) New England Patriots - 0.99
3) Minnesota Vikings - 1.11
4) New York Giants - 1.39
5) Cincinnati Bengals - 1.39
LEAGUE AVERAGE - 1.74

They, like the Jacksonville Jaguars and Minnesota Vikings are massively better than league average on drives starting between the 25 and 39 yard lines (and 44.5% of all drives in the entire league have started in that area). The difference of the top-three teams to league average here is much bigger than the difference between the top-three teams (which happen to be the same in both cases, coincidence?) and league average for overall points allowed per drive:

Overall
1) Jaguars: -0.57
2) Vikings: -0.55
3) Patriots: -0.55

Drives starting between 25-39
1) Jaguars: -0.81
2) Patriots: -0.75
3) Vikings: -0.63

To conclude:
1) Does the Patriots D enjoy good starting field position? Absolutely.
2) Do they make the most out of the good starting field position? When speaking about drives starting between the 11-24 yard lines, absolutely not, which is a tad disappointing.
3) Is the good starting field position a main driver of the defense's good points allowed figure? No.

 

[Chris Stevenson]

I agree. Total myth. For about 6 weeks now, the offense has been down, due to obvious injuries, but also due to a lack of good, consistent playcalling over 4 qtrs, IMO.

Loss of field, 3 and outs, barely moving the ball, etc. I expect the Pats to be full force for the postseason, though.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

This leads to the 'Should they treat more drives as 4 down drives?' question. It makes some sense that a team thin along the d line and lbs that takes a bend but don't break approach could struggle on long drives. Still feels a little counterintuitive though.

 

[TB_Helmet]

You're not gonna find this level of intelligent analysis on the Ravens forum folks.

 

[Chris Stevenson]

You're not gonna find this level of intelligent analysis on the Ravens forum folks.

Of course not. Most fan boards you won't. Baltimore's fanbase is like Pittsburgh's.

 

[Oswlek]

Bumpity do dah, bumpity day!

 

[luuked]

The pats defense does typically get great field position....but then the other team drives down the field, gets into the red zone, and either kicks a field goal or turns it over

So much wrong in this lazy sentence. It gives headaches..

 

[Deus Irae]

Which I have mentioned.

Then your thread title fails, immediately, along with your premise. The rest is just window dressing. It's a shame, too, because a more focused initial assertion and position might very well have made for an interesting discussion.

 

[luuked]

2) Do they make the most out of the good starting field position? When speaking about drives starting between the 11-24 yard lines, absolutely not, which is a tad disappointing.

I makes all the sense in the world to me if you look at it through the prism of what Chatham was talking about. Generally, the farther away from their own territory they are the more risk-averse is the playcalling. Once opponents cross midfield MP and BB tighten the screws on them and dont just scheme against big plays. And it works.

This is not a classic bend but dont break defense that just exchanges TDs for FGs as some lazy take artists want you to believe but a unit that genuinely is able to make life hard for opponents once they turn into a more aggressive mode.

All of this obviously comes with an exception for when the opponent is within their own 10 yard line or in must have the ball back situations. This is how we got the ball back against the Texans, Panthers (except for that Gilmore call) and Steelers to have shots at game winning drives.

 

[DarrylS]

Refreshing take and analysis... when I tune in sport-talk radio this is what I expect, however all I get is idiotic conspiracy theories about Jimmy G or is there really a "Patriot of the week"????

 

[Le Numéro Douze]

I'll say something that might sound stupid, but could it be by design that they allow more points when the opponent starts very deep in their territory?

I am not an Xs and Os guy, so I wouldn't be able to analyze the schemes and prove my point, but my guess would be that, when they pin the opponent, they will often play more vanilla, especially if they lead, to make the opponent burn as much clock as possible. I don't think they would do that in the second quarter of a close game, but they surely would in the 4th of a game they are ahead by 10+... and we often are.

I mean, it does sound far fetched, but maybe some of the coaches around here could tell me if my guess is a good one or a totally stupid one.