My take on the draft and the Patriots search for a QB

[zimmy]

There seem to be broadly three options for the Pats

i) sign a mid or cheap priced veteran or two and attempt to draft someone in the first couple of rounds
ii) trade for, or sign, an established veteran who becomes your undisputed starter for a couple of years
iii) trade up in the draft for your next 'guy'.

If you want to trade up in the draft, I think you have to do it early i.e. in the initial part of free agency as a few teams have done in recent years. Yes, it's a gamble as you don't know which QB you are getting, but the risk of signing a couple of cheap veterans e.g. Cam and Brissett lets say, and then not being able to get your guy in the 1st is too big in my view. It's easier said than done to simply say you'll draft a guy. Can't afford to end up with no succession plan again next year.

The other argument of course is that free agent WRs and TEs will want some confidence in your plan and who they will be playing with at QB if they want to sign here. Having the number 3 pick, or having traded for Stafford/Wentz etc helps all your other plans.

 

[ashley]

I think it is more than likely that we address our QB via free agency with a possibility of picking up a mid to late round QB prospect. I would personally move on from Cam. I would address our front 7 with the first pick..whoever the best value/player is. I don't care if it's a DT, DE, Edge Rusher, as long as they can make plays...we need two of those players up front. We have a lot of cap space, let's add a WR or two in free agency as well.

 

[50-yard-line]

I think it is more than likely that we address our QB via free agency with a possibility of picking up a mid to late round QB prospect. I would personally move on from Cam. I would address our front 7 with the first pick..whoever the best value/player is. I don't care if it's a DT, DE, Edge Rusher, as long as they can make plays...we need two of those players up front. We have a lot of cap space, let's add a WR or two in free agency as well.

My prediction is that we will either have Jimmy G or Brissett under center next year, with a mid-round pick and Stidham fighting it out for the "developmental" slot.

 

[Toofy]

My prediction is that we will either have Jimmy G or Brissett under center next year, with a mid-round pick and Stidham fighting it out for the "developmental" slot.

Most likely brissett for say 10-12 million.
Garopollomight be available only if 49ers draft wilson.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

If we are going Vet QB
Carr, Grapp, or Mariota
If we are doing draft
Mortgage for Wilson or Lance

 

[Toofy]

Trey lance is probably the only one who could possibly fall to us. Again the tape on him is not too conclusive so not sure how he does in crowded pockets.

If we don't draft trey lance then options are in increasing order of priority.

Mariota
Mac jones in later round 1
Brisset

I don't think Shanahan would want to go away from garopollo. Makes no sense really. So our chances are remote to get garopollo.

With cap getting reduced, guessing no backup will be paid more than 6-8 million. So most likely we get mariota without a trade assuming he is cut by Raiders, unless there are other suitors for mariota as starter.

Trade for mariota if it costs a fourth rounder or lower. And then draft the developmental prospect either trey lance / mac jones. Mac jones, kyle pitts seems to be a great value combo.

 

[Scotty]

Would there also be an issue if we miss a QB in this years draft at 15 , then get to the play offs this coming season and end up picking in the 20's or 30's. Maybe looking too far ahead but does not get easier ?

 

[ashley]

My prediction is that we will either have Jimmy G or Brissett under center next year, with a mid-round pick and Stidham fighting it out for the "developmental" slot.

50 yl- I think that sounds about right....Wouldn't be shocked with either Jacoby or Jimmy coming back.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Defense in round 1 then take Mac Jones mid-round. By no means do we take any offensive player in the first round who was worked out by Josh McDaniels.

.

 

[slifersd]

I might be in the minority here, but I do not want to draft a QB in the first round, not unless a premium one falls that far. We have holes all over the place right now and need premium young talent to address them. Without plugging those holes at receiver and tight end on offense, what young QB would look good in this offense? You think Justin Herbert can walk into this offense and throw for 4000 yards to Harry/Michel/Asiasi? Let's take the best player we can get our hands on, plug the holes and then maybe target a high end QB.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Why would the loss have cost us a shot at a top qb? If bb wants one of the top guys that bad he just has to move up from 15 instead of 12. Might cost a little more but it’s not like we’re 5 or more spots further with that win.

 

[everlong]

Gilmore had a season-ending injury this year and he's going to be a year older. You're not going to get anything for him in a trade.

Ya I wasn't suggesting you were going to get a haul for him but he probably isn't going to want to return for the salary he's due to make either. If somebody is to give you a 3rd I think you take it. Another option is a CB needy team who has a deep WR or TE roster.

 

[MoreBellhorn]

Mac Jones in round 2

He’s not lasting that long. Take Pitts at 15 then package your 2nd and a mid round pick to get back into the 1st round for Mac.

 

[A Defiant Goose]

Why is Denver "obviously" taking a QB? Is something wrong with Drew Lock? Way too early to give up on him after a season like this

 

[50-yard-line]

Most likely brissett for say 10-12 million.
Garopollomight be available only if 49ers draft wilson.

I think it's very possible that the 49'ers part ways with Jimmy. They'll have to pay him nearly 25 million to keep him, and only eat 2.8million to cut him. He's missed three of the first four years he's been there, and his performance in their Superbowl run was more Alex Smith than Pat Mahomes. They can probably find a veteran replacement cheaper - or hell, couldn't Josh Rosen do what they asked of a healthy Jimmy G?

With the cap going down, these last two years on Jimmy's contract are a HUGE risk for someone so injury-riddled. Do they really want to eat up 13+% of their entire cap on Garopollo, given what they've had thus far? At the very least, I see them wanting to redo his deal with more playing incentives, and why would he do that if he knows he can come back to New England and play in a system that seems to fit him beautifully?

Just a hunch, but he might be free - or in a trade where the other team gets to renegotiate before the deal.

 

[50-yard-line]

I don't think Shanahan would want to go away from garopollo. Makes no sense really. So our chances are remote to get garopollo.

You might be right -they're not in cap hell, but I wouldn't hold his contract at this point. That contract was written to be broken or renegotiated BY SAN FRAN in 2021:

Jimmy Garoppolo

Jimmy Garoppolo contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.

www.spotrac.com

That's a lot of salary and cap hit compared to the dead cap in getting out of it.

 

[holyredeemer]

You can view the draft order here, Pats pick #15:

2021 NFL Draft order: Top 18 picks set; Eagles sixth

See the order for the first 18 picks of the 2021 NFL Draft, along with needs for each team.

www.nfl.com

Needless to say, yesterday's win was a real gut punch and eliminated any reasonable chance of the Pats drafting a stud QB. Here is my opinion on teams in front of us that are likely to draft a QB:
_____________
Obviously
______________

JAX
NYJ
CAR
DEN

________________
Maybe
________________
ATL
DET
DAL

_________________
Longhot
_________________
NYG
MIN

So that is likely 4-7 QBs taken off the the board before we draft. Rather than reach in round one for a QB I think Bill will target a different position where there is more value and maybe sift through the debris to see what is left for QBs in round two or three hoping to find a gem. I also think there is a better than not chance that we Cam back here next year to compete for the starting job.

I guess the counter would be there is a guy Bill loves still available at seven. The Lions stick with Stafford and the Panthers and Broncos have not picked yet. Maybe swing a trade to move up? But how? We can't really afford to give away a boatload of draft picks and I don't think that would work anyway. The Lions aren't moving down eight spots in the draft (out of the top ten) for a 31 year old Gilmore. They aren't exactly in win now mode. I can't think of a young player we have that would make it worth their while. Or maybe wait and hope Carolina and Denver (and one of those top four teams) screw up and you get the third or fourth best QB of the class. God knows Elway likes to draft bad QBs in round one.

Sorry, I don't see any path other than sheer luck, to us getting a good QB in this draft. I think we roll it back with Cam and continue to build the offense through the draft and free agency over the next three years. Then, maybe once you've done that, if you still don't have a QB, you go after one of these high priced veteran free. agent options, the Matthew Stafford type. Not a great QB, but good enough to win with the right team around him. Whomever is available at that point.

What are your thoughts? Am I right, wrong, completely off base?

Spend 3 years to rebuild the offense? C’mon now. If it takes them that long, Bill & Co. need to go. This league is built so that teams can turnaround quickly and be competitive. If we have that many QB’s taken ahead of us, it doesn’t really matter other than the fantastic talent that may fall to us. It all depends on what grades Bill has on what players. What you and I may consider the 5th best QB in the draft could be the Pats #1.

 

[holyredeemer]

I think only jags, jets and Carolina might draft a qb ahead of us. Denver would need to draft von Miller replacement and give another year for Drew lock.

As for Atlanta, lions, SF why to rock the boat when you have decent options . The qb that are available to them are no way guaranteed to be better than the incumbents. Too much risk. Only ones who could draft could be SF who can trade garopollo for our first and their third and then package the two firsts to go and grab wilson before Carolina.

My guess is we could have Kyle trask available at 15 or we could get both Kyle Pitts and Mac jones in first two rounds. Not sure if it is the best use of draft capital.

Sign hunter Henry and draft the best two defensive weapons in first two rounds . If mac jones is available in third round , highly unlikely then take him.

Wait, we give up JG in the prime of his career for a 2nd rd pick, just to get him 4 injury riddled seasons later and we are paying them a 1st?! I would lose my damn mind.

 

[Toofy]

I think it's very possible that the 49'ers part ways with Jimmy. They'll have to pay him nearly 25 million to keep him, and only eat 2.8million to cut him. He's missed three of the first four years he's been there, and his performance in their Superbowl run was more Alex Smith than Pat Mahomes. They can probably find a veteran replacement cheaper - or hell, couldn't Josh Rosen do what they asked of a healthy Jimmy G?

With the cap going down, these last two years on Jimmy's contract are a HUGE risk for someone so injury-riddled. Do they really want to eat up 13+% of their entire cap on Garopollo, given what they've had thus far? At the very least, I see them wanting to redo his deal with more playing incentives, and why would he do that if he knows he can come back to New England and play in a system that seems to fit him beautifully?

Just a hunch, but he might be free - or in a trade where the other team gets to renegotiate before the deal.

I never thought about the cap angle.. you could be right. But with so many playmakrrs why go for a middling option when garopollo could be had for less.

Garopollo might need to sign contract whi ch includes playing time incentives whether its in SF or pats. I don't see pats to over pay him. So why bother to leave SF which has greater weapons.

 

[Toofy]

Wait, we give up JG in the prime of his career for a 2nd rd pick, just to get him 4 injury riddled seasons later and we are paying them a 1st?! I would lose my damn mind.

The first was just a hypothetical trade.. but considering his cap, the trade might not even materialize..