My Blueprint For the Pats

[mayoclinic]

This is an revision of my latest mock in Ye Olde Mock Draft Thread, along with some thoughts there and on the main board. I thought I'd post it for fun.

Priorities:

1. Fix the secondary
2. A stud LDE opposite Chandler Jones
3. Youth/depth at OL
4. Speed at WR to stretch the field
5. Depth at DT/penetrating DT/successor to Vince Wilfork
6. Depth at H-back/"move TE" to spell/complement Aaron Hernandez
7. An eventual true successor to TB

The Next 6 Months:

1. Trade Patrick Chung to Tampa Bay for CB Aqib Talib; alternatively, the Pats might trade a 2014 draft pick for Talib and use Chung as a hybrid S/LB this year
2. Move Devin McCourty to FS and team him with Tavon Wilson, with Steve Gregory/Nate Ebner as backups
3. Re-sign Sebastian Vollmer
4. Franchise/extend Wes Welker
5. Sign Aqib Talib to a long term deal if he works out, or sign UFA CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Philadelphia). Brent Grimes (Atlanta) is a possibility, but he's coming off an Achilles injury, and we've already been burned with Jonathan Fanene and injured UFAs. If the Pats are unable to trade for Talib by the deadline, then they can just go after one of these guys during FA in 2013
6. Re-sign Myron Pryor and Danny Woodhead
7. Let go: Ron Brace, Deion Branch, Julian Edelman, Kyle Arrington

I'm not going to do a major update on my "blueprint" until the end of the regular season or close to it, but a couple of thoughts based on what's elapsed over the past 4 weeks:

1. The secondary. It's already a world better than 4 weeks ago. Talib/Dennard looks like a keeper outside, McCourty at FS is getting better game by game, and the hemorrhaging has stopped. Dowling will be back next year, and he could be a good #3 CB without as much pressure to step in and immediately contribute. Gregory looked good yesterday, and Gregory/Wilson seems like a reasonable "downhill" safety tandem with McCourty playing more of a deep/cover role. Chung barely saw the field. Arrington had probably his best game of the season, and perhaps being used in a different role will help him as well. Assuming Aqib Talib can be extended, the secondary seems to be in muich better long term shape than it looked 4 weeks ago. There's at least a clear plan and a solid nucleus to build around.

2. The OL. Marcus Cannon stepped up nicely yesterday, and Donald Thomas filled in reasonably well for Logan Mankins. Meanwhile the Pats have added to young linemen to the roster in Mitch Petrus and Markus Zukevics, both of whom have a lot of potential to flourish under Scar's tutelage. It will be interesting to see how this group continues to develop. They've already vastly exceeded expectations given the losses coming into the season (Light, Waters, Gallery).

3. The offensive "skill players". Shane Vereen is starting to hit his stride as a major offense weapon. I obviously screwed the pooch in the OP by suggesting that Julian Edelman should be relegated to the scrap heap. He has the potential to be a Randall Cobb kind of all-purpose offense weapon, and the combination of Edelman and Vereen could really be electric. He needs to be extended. Boy, did I screw that one up big time. I'm less inclined than ever to spend a high pick on a WR if Edelman and/or Welker is kept for 2013. I still love Tavon Austin, but not at the price it would take. A guy like Markus Wheaton or Steadman Bailey would fit in nicely.

4. The defensive line. The run defense has suffered more than the pass rush with Chandler Jones out. Cunningham has played nicely. But I still see an opportunity to elevate this area, which I think would elevate the defense to top unit.

 

[BradyMoss812]

I'm not going to do a major update on my "blueprint" until the end of the regular season or close to it, but a couple of thoughts based on what's elapsed over the past 4 weeks:

1. The secondary. It's already a world better than 4 weeks ago. Talib/Dennard looks like a keeper outside, McCourty at FS is getting better game by game, and the hemorrhaging has stopped. Dowling will be back next year, and he could be a good #3 CB without as much pressure to step in and immediately contribute. Gregory looked good yesterday, and Gregory/Wilson seems like a reasonable "downhill" safety tandem with McCourty playing more of a deep/cover role. Chung barely saw the field. Arrington had probably his best game of the season, and perhaps being used in a different role will help him as well. Assuming Aqib Talib can be extended, the secondary seems to be in muich better long term shape than it looked 4 weeks ago. There's at least a clear plan and a solid nucleus to build around.

2. The OL. Marcus Cannon stepped up nicely yesterday, and Donald Thomas filled in reasonably well for Logan Mankins. Meanwhile the Pats have added to young linemen to the roster in Mitch Petrus and Markus Zukevics, both of whom have a lot of potential to flourish under Scar's tutelage. It will be interesting to see how this group continues to develop. They've already vastly exceeded expectations given the losses coming into the season (Light, Waters, Gallery).

3. The offensive "skill players". Shane Vereen is starting to hit his stride as a major offense weapon. I obviously screwed the pooch in the OP by suggesting that Julian Edelman should be relegated to the scrap heap. He has the potential to be a Randall Cobb kind of all-purpose offense weapon, and the combination of Edelman and Vereen could really be electric. He needs to be extended. Boy, did I screw that one up big time. I'm less inclined than ever to spend a high pick on a WR if Edelman and/or Welker is kept for 2013. I still love Tavon Austin, but not at the price it would take. A guy like Markus Wheaton or Steadman Bailey would fit in nicely.

4. The defensive line. The run defense has suffered more than the pass rush with Chandler Jones out. Cunningham has played nicely. But I still see an opportunity to elevate this area, which I think would elevate the defense to top unit.

I do like your idea in your previous post of signing Rogers-Cromartie; him & Talib in the backfield would be something.

 

[Marqui]

I do like your idea in your previous post of signing Rogers-Cromartie; him & Talib in the backfield would be something.

There's no way they can afford both.

 

[mayoclinic]

There's no way they can afford both.

I agree. Re-signing Talib should be a priority assuming he keeps his nose clean the rest of the season. He's clearly a good fit with solid skills, and the re-assignment of roles is helping to sort out the confusion in the secondary tremendously. Dowling will hopefully be able to come back and add something for next year.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Hate to say this about one of our guys. But, Edelman looks bigger, quicker, faster and stronger than I remember him....cough cough

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Hate to say this about one of our guys. But, Edelman looks bigger, quicker, faster and stronger than I remember him....cough cough

If you're suggesting what I think you're suggesting. . . . :bricks:

No, he really isn't any of those things.

 

[Sciz]

Hate to say this about one of our guys. But, Edelman looks bigger, quicker, faster and stronger than I remember him....cough cough

This was noticed by the media early in training camp. He says he's not any faster, just running better routes so he looks faster.

Don't know what his excuse for looking bigger is, though

 

[DocHoliday]

This was noticed by the media early in training camp. He says he's not any faster, just running better routes so he looks faster.

Don't know what his excuse for looking bigger is, though

Grandma Edelmans nutritious cooking I hope

 

[manxman2601]

I'm not going to do a major update on my "blueprint" until the end of the regular season or close to it, but a couple of thoughts based on what's elapsed over the past 4 weeks:

1. The secondary. It's already a world better than 4 weeks ago. Talib/Dennard looks like a keeper outside, McCourty at FS is getting better game by game, and the hemorrhaging has stopped. Dowling will be back next year, and he could be a good #3 CB without as much pressure to step in and immediately contribute. Gregory looked good yesterday, and Gregory/Wilson seems like a reasonable "downhill" safety tandem with McCourty playing more of a deep/cover role. Chung barely saw the field. Arrington had probably his best game of the season, and perhaps being used in a different role will help him as well. Assuming Aqib Talib can be extended, the secondary seems to be in muich better long term shape than it looked 4 weeks ago. There's at least a clear plan and a solid nucleus to build around.

2. The OL. Marcus Cannon stepped up nicely yesterday, and Donald Thomas filled in reasonably well for Logan Mankins. Meanwhile the Pats have added to young linemen to the roster in Mitch Petrus and Markus Zukevics, both of whom have a lot of potential to flourish under Scar's tutelage. It will be interesting to see how this group continues to develop. They've already vastly exceeded expectations given the losses coming into the season (Light, Waters, Gallery).

3. The offensive "skill players". Shane Vereen is starting to hit his stride as a major offense weapon. I obviously screwed the pooch in the OP by suggesting that Julian Edelman should be relegated to the scrap heap. He has the potential to be a Randall Cobb kind of all-purpose offense weapon, and the combination of Edelman and Vereen could really be electric. He needs to be extended. Boy, did I screw that one up big time. I'm less inclined than ever to spend a high pick on a WR if Edelman and/or Welker is kept for 2013. I still love Tavon Austin, but not at the price it would take. A guy like Markus Wheaton or Steadman Bailey would fit in nicely.

4. The defensive line. The run defense has suffered more than the pass rush with Chandler Jones out. Cunningham has played nicely. But I still see an opportunity to elevate this area, which I think would elevate the defense to top unit.

I really don't think we should read too much in to the last four games. I have enjoyed the more aggressive style of the defense (last 2 games) but our last four opponents have been last years joint worst teams, a Bills team that gave up 40+ to the Mark Sanchez and the most dysfunctional team in the NFL right now. Sure you can only beat what's put in front of you and on a couple off occasions they've done it very well but I don't think we can deduce anything about this team until after Texans/49'ers.

 

[mayoclinic]

I really don't think we should read too much in to the last four games. I have enjoyed the more aggressive style of the defense (last 2 games) but our last four opponents have been last years joint worst teams, a Bills team that gave up 40+ to the Mark Sanchez and the most dysfunctional team in the NFL right now. Sure you can only beat what's put in front of you and on a couple off occasions they've done it very well but I don't think we can deduce anything about this team until after Texans/49'ers.

I agree - that's why I started with "I'm not going to do a major update until the end of the regular season, or close to it." I think things are moving in the right general direction, and I thought it was worth outlining some of those main areas (secondary, OL, WR/TE, DL). But I'm not reading much into things are formulating any judgments until we see how this team does in the playoffs.

 

[DaBruinz]

CAVEAT: I did not read through all 17 pages.

1) I like the way the secondary looks with Talib out there. I think that re-signing him is a must for a reasonable, incentive-laden contract. It will be interesting to see whether or not they replace Chung with another "In-the-box" type safety or go with someone who is more of a coverage safety who helps out against the run. People were mentioning Bacarri Rambo as a possibility last year until he decided to return for his senior year.

2) a LDE opposite Jones would be good. Someone they can develop behind Ninkovich. Ansah is a good option. Damonte Moore from A&M might be another if he comes out.

3) The Pats have put a lot of time into Matt Kopa. They've also put some time into Kyle Hix and Jeremiah Warren. I wouldn't be surprised to see them add a couple more guys during the off-season to vie for PS spots. One thing I think the Pats will look at is a swing tackle. This is something they don't currently have and they've been playing with fire. Yes, in a pinch, Vollmer swings over and Cannon takes over at RT if Solder goes down. But, Vollmer's back hasn't been healthy and he's missed time this season because of it.

4) A speed WR would be nice, but if they re-sign Edelman, it becomes less of an issue. I'd still like them to draft a young kid they could actually develop behind Edelman. Someone who doesn't have a ton of pressure put on them right away.

5) Definitely would like to see them add a NT/DT who can develop behind Vince since Brace hasn't seemed to be able to do that.

6) The Pats have 4 TEs signed going into next season. Gronkowski, Hernandez, Ballard, and Fells. Yes, Ballard is a wild-card, but I honestly believe that he'll come back at full health and be such an amazing additional weapon for the Pats that we'll all be freaking out about it. I don't see TE as a need, because of this.

7) Successor to TB - Mallett is the heir-apparent for now. They'll probably add someone either at the end of the draft or as a UDFA.

EDIT: The Pats RB situation looks pretty sick with Ridley, Vereen, Woodhead, Bolden and Demps. This might be the first year in awhile where we fans haven't thought about needing a RB

 

[patfanken]

CAVEAT: I did not read through all 17 pages.

1) I like the way the secondary looks with Talib out there. I think that re-signing him is a must for a reasonable, incentive-laden contract. It will be interesting to see whether or not they replace Chung with another "In-the-box" type safety or go with someone who is more of a coverage safety who helps out against the run. People were mentioning Bacarri Rambo as a possibility last year until he decided to return for his senior year.

2) a LDE opposite Jones would be good. Someone they can develop behind Ninkovich. Ansah is a good option. Damonte Moore from A&M might be another if he comes out.

3) The Pats have put a lot of time into Matt Kopa. They've also put some time into Kyle Hix and Jeremiah Warren. I wouldn't be surprised to see them add a couple more guys during the off-season to vie for PS spots. One thing I think the Pats will look at is a swing tackle. This is something they don't currently have and they've been playing with fire. Yes, in a pinch, Vollmer swings over and Cannon takes over at RT if Solder goes down. But, Vollmer's back hasn't been healthy and he's missed time this season because of it.

4) A speed WR would be nice, but if they re-sign Edelman, it becomes less of an issue. I'd still like them to draft a young kid they could actually develop behind Edelman. Someone who doesn't have a ton of pressure put on them right away.

5) Definitely would like to see them add a NT/DT who can develop behind Vince since Brace hasn't seemed to be able to do that.

6) The Pats have 4 TEs signed going into next season. Gronkowski, Hernandez, Ballard, and Fells. Yes, Ballard is a wild-card, but I honestly believe that he'll come back at full health and be such an amazing additional weapon for the Pats that we'll all be freaking out about it. I don't see TE as a need, because of this.

7) Successor to TB - Mallett is the heir-apparent for now. They'll probably add someone either at the end of the draft or as a UDFA.

EDIT: The Pats RB situation looks pretty sick with Ridley, Vereen, Woodhead, Bolden and Demps. This might be the first year in awhile where we fans haven't thought about needing a RB

For the 2013 draft, given the limited (for us) resources we have, we need to avoid spending any on (IMHO) the OL, TE, RB, QB. Only WR is a need for the 2013 team. Our entire OL will be coming back (assuming we re-sign Volmer) plus plenty of existing acolytes for depth and PS. We are awash at RB, and over stocked at TE. We can pick up some camp arms and/or #3 QB material in FA or among the UDFA market.

What we DO need is #1 and interior pass rusher. #2 WR preferably over 6'3 with 4.4 speed #3 Another developmental edge rusher. #4 upgrade the DBs depth (assuming we resign Talib. #5 a coverage speed LB (lavonte David/Demario Davis type)

If we could successfully add those young players with some combination of 5 picks, I'd happily use the the rest of our resources to trade into the 2014 draft, or start to accumulate picks in 2015 and beyond

We have a very young defense that needs some continuity above anything else. A defensive backfield that starts with Talib, Dennard, Dowling, Arrington Gregory, Wilson, McCourty (assuming McCourty stays at S and Chung isn't resigned) will be the best talent the Pats have had in the secondary this decade, but it would be good to add 2 more upgrades to the depth.

The DL Love and Deadrick are 2 young decent pieces to the DL, but a young player who who can play a 3-4 DE and also be an interior pass rusher is a critical need. We also could use a young NT.

I guess what I'm saying is that what will improve this team in the draft is IMPACT players..... not numbers. We don't need a infusion of a bunch of new players. We need to coach up and continue to develop the young players we already have. I'm saying that THIS is a year where the Pats could take a stab at taking the big risk at a player who has the potential to be an impact player immediately or down the road. This is the year to grab a "Dez Bryant" if he's within reach. This is the year to draft that athletic freak who got hurt. This is the year to take a shot at the kid who just might not fit the physical profile. The one who is a little shorter, or a little lighter than you want, but has great speed or instincts. You know, this year's Lavonte David, or Bruce Carter.

I believe because of how FA is evolving, periodically you can take more risks in the draft because you can recover from the mistakes through the addition of solid 4 or 5 year prove vets who can fill in the roster spots that you'd get from successful 2nd and 3rd day draft picks. The growing crop of these FA keep the prices reasonable.

Edelman is a perfect example of a very useful player that will be available. We've just spent 4 years training him to be a decent WR, excellent PR, and all round special teamer/DB He'd be a pick up pick for some team for about $2-3MM/yr - He does a lot of things. There are a lot of guys who are in Julian's category that are available at reasonable prices in FA these days.

Its funny but if you look back our most successful FA pick ups have NOT been the big name ones, but the under the radar ones like Andre Carter, Brian Waters, Marc Anderson, Steve Gregory, Tracy White's, etc Not the AThomas, Ocho, Haynesworth's of the world

I am just rambling now so I will stop. I hope you get the idea

 

[mayoclinic]

I guess what I'm saying is that what will improve this team in the draft is IMPACT players..... not numbers. We don't need a infusion of a bunch of new players. We need to coach up and continue to develop the young players we already have. I'm saying that THIS is a year where the Pats could take a stab at taking the big risk at a player who has the potential to be an impact player immediately or down the road. This is the year to grab a "Dez Bryant" if he's within reach. This is the year to draft that athletic freak who got hurt. This is the year to take a shot at the kid who just might not fit the physical profile. The one who is a little shorter, or a little lighter than you want, but has great speed or instincts. You know, this year's Lavonte David, or Bruce Carter.

I agree with you in part that this is a year to add fewer rookies with selected impact, as opposed to building depth. I wouldn't ignore the OL, as you suggest, and I would be very careful about taking chances/risks early, on I do agree that there's some room to err a bit on the side of higher ceiling instead of higher floor. But remember, BB/Pioli were criticized a bit for doing a bit too much of that at one point, leading to some major misses (Chad Jackson, Marquise Hill).

With that in mind, here's 6 guys to consider who may not fit BB's typical mold perfectly, but who could be interesting:

DL:

1. Ziggy Ansah, DE, BYU. The ultimate upside guy, 6'6" 270# (looks more like 290#) with with freakish speed and athleticism. Still a bit raw, but learning fast.

2. Sheldon Richardson, DT/DE, Missouri. A 6'4" 295# beast could could provide that interior pressure we've been wanting, and could also play outside at LDE in a 3-4 or 4-3 at times. Has some big question marks in terms of smarts, trash talking and work ethic.

3. Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon. Not an edge setter at 6'7" 243#, but so fluid in space. Could be moved around the front 7, perhaps alternating with Dont'a Hightower. Tremendous upside.

Other options who don't quite fit the mold: DE Margus Hunt, SMU. DE Devin Taylor, South Carolina. DE William Gholston, Michigan St.

WR:

4. Tavon Austin, West Virginia. Undersized, but a multi-purpose weapon in the Percy Harvin mold.

5. Cordarelle Patterson, Tennessee. A 6'4" receiver with tremendous movement in space and great YAC ability.

6. Da'Rick Rogers, Tennessee Tech. A Dez Bryant kind of receiver, with similar character issues, but probably available later than Bryant was.

If BB does want to take a bit more of a risk, these are some guys to think about.

 

[DaBruinz]

For the 2013 draft, given the limited (for us) resources we have, we need to avoid spending any on (IMHO) the OL, TE, RB, QB. Only WR is a need for the 2013 team. Our entire OL will be coming back (assuming we re-sign Volmer) plus plenty of existing acolytes for depth and PS. We are awash at RB, and over stocked at TE. We can pick up some camp arms and/or #3 QB material in FA or among the UDFA market.

What we DO need is #1 and interior pass rusher. #2 WR preferably over 6'3 with 4.4 speed #3 Another developmental edge rusher. #4 upgrade the DBs depth (assuming we resign Talib. #5 a coverage speed LB (lavonte David/Demario Davis type)

PFK -
I'm not sure that Vollmer is coming back. Also, adding an OT who can play RG and move Connolly back to center upgrades the whole O-Line. I'm sorry, but Wendell has been the weak link there and Connolly is an upgrade over him.

I disagree that the Pats need a 6'3+ receiver who runs a 4.4. What they need is someone who gets separation at the line. Yeah, I'd like someone who is that tall and such, but the Pats haven't had a guy like that since, well, I can't remember when. What the Pats DO have are 3 amazing TEs who do get separation in Gronk, Hernandez, and Ballard. You want to talk about a nightmare for opposing defenses, put those 3 on the field at the same time.

I agree about the interior pass rusher. A developmental edge rusher behind Jones, Ninkovich, and Bequette would be nice, but I'd rather get an edge rusher who has a higher ceiling than Bequette or Ninkovich. Someone who could rotate in with Jones and Ninkovich. I agree about needing someone to cover the TEs. Whether that be a taller safety or a LBer with good coverage skills. I think a taller safety would be better in the long run.

 

[stelfans]

Not sure how they feel about the DE position with Jones, Ninko, Bequette, Francis and Cunningham and scott. I mean yeah sure i would like another stud but with the lack of picks and other needs i m not sure they'll draft one this year.

Bring a couple of DT, a LB that can play coverage, a DB and an OL and im happy.

 

[manxman2601]

Have to say, I think this lusting for a high round interior rusher is overrated:

1. Unless you are getting someone elite, you're probably not getting good value in the first round because the player doesn't impact enough.

2. Can't see BB going for a one gap get upfield fast type player.

3. Think this class is vastly overrated. Apart from Sheldon Richardson and, to a lesser degree, Jesse Williams, none of the 'in-range' DT's have particularly impressed me as first rounders.

 

[mayoclinic]

Have to say, I think this lusting for a high round interior rusher is overrated:

1. Unless you are getting someone elite, you're probably not getting good value in the first round because the player doesn't impact enough.

2. Can't see BB going for a one gap get upfield fast type player.

3. Think this class is vastly overrated. Apart from Sheldon Richardson and, to a lesser degree, Jesse Williams, none of the 'in-range' DT's have particularly impressed me as first rounders.

I've been less focused on a high round interior rusher than many. I do prioritize DL in general, and think that depth at DT is important. I like Jesse Williams, though I don't think of him as a "rusher". I like Sheldon Richardson's athleticism and skill set and think he could play outside as well as inside, but his baggage scares me. But I probably prioritize a stud LDE more than an interior pass rusher. I like moving the ends inside in a NASCAR kind of package, as we've seen more of this season.

 

[manxman2601]

I've been less focused on a high round interior rusher than many. I do prioritize DL in general, and think that depth at DT is important. I like Jesse Williams, though I don't think of him as a "rusher". I like Sheldon Richardson's athleticism and skill set and think he could play outside as well as inside, but his baggage scares me. But I probably prioritize a stud LDE more than an interior pass rusher. I like moving the ends inside in a NASCAR kind of package, as we've seen more of this season.

Agreed. With everything you've just said. Williams, Richardson and Hankins if he falls are the only DT's I really want in the 1st.

 

[mayoclinic]

Agreed. With everything you've just said. Williams, Richardson and Hankins if he falls are the only DT's I really want in the 1st.

I would probably add Louis Nix to that list if he declares. But otherwise, agreed.

Ogletree is a beast. The idea of Hightower moving up on the DL and drafting Ogletree at LB has some appeal.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Ogletree is a beast. The idea of Hightower moving up on the DL and drafting Ogletree at LB has some appeal.

Now you're coming around Mayo. We have to add a little athleticism to the defense. Hightowers does it at de, and Ogletree does it at lb. Donta is already 270lb. That's too big for a 4-3 olb if that's going to be our defense. Especially, when speed isn't our mlb's strength either in Spikes. I'd consider Matt Elam at SS too in the first.

I do like your de prospects. I'd just like to see what Hightower can do at LDE. I know you can never have enough pass rushers. I think Donta is stout enough to slide into dt on 3RD and 10+. Have the shiny, new toy like Ansah or Jordan at LDE. But, I do want to see what we have in Bequette and Francis. Cunningham isn't chopped liver either. And, that Ninko guy seems to make a lot of plays