WOW Mayo. Talk about being prescient. Not only did you call the trade for Talib, you called the draft pick. Kudos for that. The rest of your "grand plan" is following nicely as well. McCourty seems heading toward a permanent place at S, Dennard at the 2nd outside CB, with Chung and Arrington headed out the door. The Powerball is tomorrow and I need some help with my numbers.
However assuming Talib can be resigned for reasonable money (and what would that be btw?), Dowling can return both healthy and effective, and Dennard's maturation continues on pace. I still feel the need to add another strong CB to the mix, preferably someone with some experience and size.
As to safety, if McCourty stays and flourishes at the FS positon, I think he makes Gregory redundant as a starter. The problem I have with a safety combo of Wilson, Gregory, and McCourty is size. We really need a big thumper back in the secondary, but someone who is more than "just" a SS.
Supposedly, because so many good safety prospects went back to school last year, this year is supposed to be especially deep at the Safety positon. Who are the guys who could be that "thumper' for us.
Ken, I'm only going to address your comments on the secondary here. I'll address the other stuff separately.
CB
Let's start with the CB position. I believe that you need at least 3 good press-man CBs plus depth at the dime/ST. The options on the roster right now include:
- Aqib Talib. The best CB on the roster, asusming McCourt's move to FS is permanent, as it appears to be. Assuming he stays clean, he needs to be signed long term. So far he's shown an ability to pick things up quickly, an eagerness to fit in, and a nice work ethic. He seems to crave being accepted. It may all be a false front, but I'm betting that with a strong team structure he'll be able to stay relatively clean. What will it take to keep him? I'm guessing somewhere between the $24M/4 years ($6M/year) that we gave Leigh Bodden in 2010 and the roughly $50M/5 years ($10M/year) that Brandon Carr and Cortland Finnegan got this year, depending on how he does over the rest of the season. His history will obviously weigh against him, but if he performs well and the Pats secondary improves markedly it will improve his market value. Good CBs don't come cheap.
- Alfonzo Dennard. Need to keep him at outside CB IMHO and develop him. If we had a veteran outside CB he could move to the slot, but he has good skills and tenacity. He's been compared in style to a young Charles Tillman. I'm sure he'll have some bumps, but I'm willing to stick with him. Except for the bar fight, he's never had a character issue.
- Ras-I Dowling. Would be a great guy opposite Talib if he could stay healthy and develop, but he's on IR for the 2nd straight year and is a huge question mark. The coaching staff and FO needs to seriously evaluate him this offseason in deciding whether to pursue another veteran or rookie CB.
- Marquice Cole. Great STer, good dime. Could he be more? He's shown flashes.
- Kyle Arrington. Had 8 INTs last year, deteriorated big time this year. Has been a major liability. Is in a contract year. Is there a role for him, and can he be kept at a reasonable price?
- Sterling Moore. On the PS, could be a cheap alternative to Arrington.
I think there's room for another CB in there, but a lot depends on the long term outlook for Talib and Dowling. If Talib is extended and the coaching staff still believes in Dowling, a major investment may not be warranted. I know that most fans don't have much confidence in Dowling right now, but we don't know the details of his injury situation, why the team chose to shut him down for the season, or what his long term prognosis is.
There may be some decent FAs available in addition to re-signing Talib: DRC, Brent Grimes. But the market cost may be prohibitive.
Safety
Unlike you, I'm not particularly interested in the "big thumper". I think those guys are Dinosaurs in today's NFL. Hyrbid CB/S and coverage LB's have a role, but the big thumper S really doesn't fit. Coverage guys who can lay the lumber - now that's a different story.
I've never seen Steve Gregory as a starter. He's a white James Sanders, perhaps with a bit more coverage ability (but not much more). Good utility man, but not a starter under any stretch of the imagination. Nate Ebner is a developmetnal guy and STer. So the question is whether Tavon Wilson is likely to grow into a bona fide starter opposite Devin McCourty, or whether he will be a situational player. If the former, the Pats are fine at the safety position. If the latter, the Pats should probably jettison Gregory and go after either a veteran safety in FA (Goldson, Byrd, Reed) or an impact rookie (Elam). I personally don't favor more youth in the secondary, as I think we've had enough young players, and need some experience. I'd love to pair McCourty with someone like Dahson Goldson, but I just don't see him hitting FA, and the cost of keeping Talib and getting Goldson would be prohibitive.
