My Blueprint For the Pats

[JackBauer]

An OL of Solder-Mankins-Connolly-Fluker-Vollmer would be incredibly powerful.

This wouldn't be our OL, though, because in your scenario you're letting Vollmer walk.

Anyway, I like your blueprint, particularly the Phillips addition (Kenny's a Hurricane, too, and we know BB generally likes players from the U).

I'm also basically where you're at with Welker. Love the guy, but honestly I think it's less than 50-50 he'll be back again next season.

 

[mayoclinic]

This wouldn't be our OL, though, because in your scenario you're letting Vollmer walk.

Sorry, that was a carryover from the previous iteration, where Vollmer as kept. But substitute Cannon at RT for Vollmer, and it's still a very powerful line.

 

[JackBauer]

Sorry, that was a carryover from the previous iteration, where Vollmer as kept. But substitute Cannon at RT for Vollmer, and it's still a very powerful line.

Makes sense now!

 

[EwanSellars]

i think Talib is the only big FA we need to keep. I want to keep welker but for cheap (around 6-7 mil) vollmer i could deal with leaving and would we get a compensation pick for him im not too sure of the rules for that

 

[mayoclinic]

i think Talib is the only big FA we need to keep. I want to keep welker but for cheap (around 6-7 mil) vollmer i could deal with leaving and would we get a compensation pick for him im not too sure of the rules for that

I'm pretty much there right now. Much as I'd like to keep all 3, I can't see it happening, and Talib is the one who seems hardest to replace, unless he really goes for breaking the bank.

Re-sign Talib. Sign a decent safety like Kenny Phillips. Hopefully re-sign at reasonably cost: Edelman, Woodhead, Arrington, Thomas. Sign ERFA Ballard, RFA Fletcher, maybe RFA Hoomanawanui. No big hits other than Talib. Maybe a moderate priced WR, but no big name external FAs. With the loss of Vollmer and Welker, we'll get some comp picks in 2014 - maybe as high as a 3rd, probably at least a 4th.

 

[EwanSellars]

yeah thats basically my feelings as well welker will be issed but i think its worth it to open up the space and same with vollmer. id be happy with comp picks as well so we can trade up into the absolutely stacked 2014 draft

 

[manxman2601]

yeah thats basically my feelings as well welker will be issed but i think its worth it to open up the space and same with vollmer. id be happy with comp picks as well so we can trade up into the absolutely stacked 2014 draft

Just bear in mind that you can't trade comp picks although it obviously means it's better value to trade your other picks. I would have thought Vollmer and Welker would bring in two thirds assuming we don't start signing pointless FA's like last year. Don't know about Talib. Would he bring in a comp pick?

 

[zimmy]

My issue with keeping Talib is two fold. Injuries worry me; he hasn't ever completed a full NFL season. Secondly I think the improvement in the secondary had as much to do with putting McCourty at safety and Dennard's arrival in the team than with the impact of Talib. I think he played okay, made some plays but gave some big ones up too. I'm all for keeping him but at the right price - my fear is that he will turn into another Leigh Bodden after we gave him his deal. Talib was a guy Tampa wanted rid of so 4 years 20-22 million is about as far as I'd go.

However I'm less convinced about giving Welker a big deal. He's 31 now and if we were only willing to offer him 2 years last year I'm not sure they would offer more now. However he is consistent and durable, something we lack, and you wonder without him can we trust Gronk, Hernandez and Edelman to play 16 games? At this point you have to wonder.

I wonder if we put a 2 year 16-18m type deal on the table for Wes and let him hit free agency and ask him to come back if he doesn't find anything.

I love Seabass but you have to wonder about his health and that might mean we let him go. as well as we have other money invested in the line and he's going to want solid dollars. I don't know the tag numbers but I wonder if a tag and trade scenario could be worked out. Teams always want tackles - someone like Chicago would love a guy like Vollmer.

In summary - I don't have any imperative need to keep any of the three but for the right money I'd keep Talib and give Wes an offer but let him walk if he finds better.

 

[Wilfork#75]

My issue with keeping Talib is two fold. Injuries worry me; he hasn't ever completed a full NFL season. Secondly I think the improvement in the secondary had as much to do with putting McCourty at safety and Dennard's arrival in the team than with the impact of Talib. I think he played okay, made some plays but gave some big ones up too. I'm all for keeping him but at the right price - my fear is that he will turn into another Leigh Bodden after we gave him his deal. Talib was a guy Tampa wanted rid of so 4 years 20-22 million is about as far as I'd go.

However I'm less convinced about giving Welker a big deal. He's 31 now and if we were only willing to offer him 2 years last year I'm not sure they would offer more now. However he is consistent and durable, something we lack, and you wonder without him can we trust Gronk, Hernandez and Edelman to play 16 games? At this point you have to wonder.

I wonder if we put a 2 year 16-18m type deal on the table for Wes and let him hit free agency and ask him to come back if he doesn't find anything.

I love Seabass but you have to wonder about his health and that might mean we let him go. as well as we have other money invested in the line and he's going to want solid dollars. I don't know the tag numbers but I wonder if a tag and trade scenario could be worked out. Teams always want tackles - someone like Chicago would love a guy like Vollmer.

In summary - I don't have any imperative need to keep any of the three but for the right money I'd keep Talib and give Wes an offer but let him walk if he finds better.

I agree that moving McCourty to FS and Dennard into the lineup had a huge impact on the defense, but I think its because BB had confidence in Talib that he was able to make those moves. Its the philosophical change in defense that made the difference, but it was Talib's skillset that allowed it. If there was another free agent CB that had a comparable skillset to Talib then I would be less inclined to give him a long term deal, but I think he is clearly the best guy available. That's why I would pay the man. While his individual play might not be elite, his impact is huge.

On Vollmer, I've been for the tag and trade scenario. I think the franchise tag for OT's is $9.6mil this year, so if we did plan to do this and keep Welker and Talib, I think we would need to come to an agreement with one (likely Welker), but not make it official until the Vollmer contract is off the books. I think teams like Arizona, Philly, SD, Chicago and Stl would all be interested because there are only 3 top OT's in the draft. I would take a 2nd and a 4th for him, but it wouldn't surprise me to see a team like Chicago give up a 1st if they were really desperate.

 

[Off The Grid]

I agree that moving McCourty to FS and Dennard into the lineup had a huge impact on the defense, but I think its because BB had confidence in Talib that he was able to make those moves.

Mad Bill moved McCourty to Free Safety two weeks before we traded for Talib.

 

[mayoclinic]

Just bear in mind that you can't trade comp picks although it obviously means it's better value to trade your other picks. I would have thought Vollmer and Welker would bring in two thirds assuming we don't start signing pointless FA's like last year. Don't know about Talib. Would he bring in a comp pick?

Comp picks are nice because they either give you extra picks in a deep draft, or give you more freedom to use your regular picks to move around and possibly trade up.

The general formula for comp picks involves the contract value of FA's lost vs. signed. Re-signing your own FAs doesn't count. I think it's safe to assume that any of Welker, Talib and Vollmer that aren't re-signed will get big money deals from someone else, and that the Pats don't have the cap space to sign a big money outside FA, so it's almost certain that we'll lose more than we get this year. What exactly that will work out to remains to be seen, but big money FA signings usually fetch 3rd or 4th round comp picks.

 

[Off The Grid]

Suffice it to say that I couldn't disagree more with these thoughts.

IMHO, this is the road to PERDITION and DAMNATION, from both a cap and a offensive scheme perspective.

Tying up big money in Welker or a FA will cripple us (and guys like Maclin or Harvin will want big money). "Replacing" Welker with another big name isn't the answer.

Couldn't've put it better, myself.

And there's no need to replace Welker at all.

It's time to Pass less, and Run more.

 

[manxman2601]

Couldn't've put it better, myself.

And there's no need to replace Welker at all.

It's time to Pass less, and Run more.

We need a better O Line for that. The reason we were successful running last year was because we saw more nickel/dime packages than any other team. We'll see less of that without Welker I suspect.

 

[everlong]

Couldn't've put it better, myself.

And there's no need to replace Welker at all.

It's time to Pass less, and Run more.

Except they only run more and pass less under two sets of circumstance. One vs a weak run defense or two by trickery. Their offensive line isn't great at putting a helmet on a helmet and winning the one on one battles. When good to great teams know they're running it they generally get stuffed. So you're going to have to retool the O-Line for that to happen. Or at least C and RG.

"IMHO, this is the road to PERDITION and DAMNATION, from both a cap and a offensive scheme perspective. "

Holy hyperbole Batman. Even if you franchise Welker it's an 11M cap hit. I'm not advocating a 4/40 with a 12M bonus that's back ended and cripples them some year down the road.

I read your stuff in the WR thread and you do make some good points about percentage of the cap to the receiving position. I can see the merit to receivers by committee but with the current lineup of Gronk, Hernandez, Edelman (assuming he's resigned) and Ballard that's a lot of players who haven't stayed healthy.

The other thing about using three draft picks in the draft is they still need a lot of work on the defensive side of the ball. I'd like to see an 3-4 DE/4-3 DT type, another 3-4 lb/4-3 DE, a safety and a corner. Minus a lot of trading back they don't have a lot of picks as it stands.

Pay Wes at least for a year and continue to grow the defense. Maybe pick up a mid level FA receiver and take a flyer on a late round draft pick at receiver.

 

[everlong]

We need a better O Line for that. The reason we were successful running last year was because we saw more nickel/dime packages than any other team. We'll see less of that without Welker I suspect.

Exactly, that and quick snapping and draw plays.

 

[mayoclinic]

We need a better O Line for that. The reason we were successful running last year was because we saw more nickel/dime packages than any other team. We'll see less of that without Welker I suspect.

Yes, we do. That works for me.

- Solder with Mankins/Thomas on the left side was fine
- Move Connolly back to center
- Draft DJ Fluker and put him at RG next to Cannon, or Vollmer if we can keep him
- Get Gronk back, and add Ballard as a second blocking TE
- Draft a fullback/H-back like Kyle Jusevics to clear the pile when we need to run

I would consider that a line that we should be able to run behind.

 

[mayoclinic]

Holy hyperbole Batman. Even if you franchise Welker it's an 11M cap hit. I'm not advocating a 4/40 with a 12M bonus that's back ended and cripples them some year down the road.

If you take on an $11.5M cap hit for Welker this year you probably have to let Woodhead and Edelman walk, and then Welker is gone in 2014, and then where are you? Are you any better off in the long term than you are now?

Of all the available options, I think that using the franchise tag on Welker again would be one of the worst. A huge cap hit when we don't have a ton of room to maneuver, with no long term solution.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

If you take on an $11.5M cap hit for Welker this year you probably have to let Woodhead and Edelman walk, and then Welker is gone in 2014, and then where are you? Are you any better off in the long term than you are now?

Of all the available options, I think that using the franchise tag on Welker again would be one of the worst. A huge cap hit when we don't have a ton of room to maneuver, with no long term solution.

The only use I the franchise this year will be to attempt to control welker or vollmers price and market. There are only a small handful of teams with money this summer, do slapping the tag on welker, only for the market to dry up, he would probably be forced to sign, creating a potential trade situation. If he tries to wait us out, the tag can be pulled and no harm no foul.

Just a thought, but wouldn't be surprised if they use it for maximum leverage and to possibly increase assets.

 

[Off The Grid]

Couldn't've put it better, myself.

And there's no need to replace Welker at all.

It's time to Pass less, and Run more.

We need a better O Line for that.

You don't SAY???

I've been advocating "a better O Line" since 1426, my friend.

Please reference my Signature if you have any further questions.

 

[Off The Grid]

Couldn't've put it better, myself.

And there's no need to replace Welker at all.

It's time to Pass less, and Run more.

So you're going to have to retool the O-Line for that to happen.

One More & With Feeling...

You don't SAY???

I've been advocating "a better O Line" since 1426, my friend.

Please reference my Signature if you have any further questions.