My Blueprint For the Pats

[manxman2601]

Looking at the Pats' cap situation, I would consider modifying this slightly:

1. Let Welker walk. If a FA like Hartline can be signed for reasonable $, then do it. He's the one I would target. Otherwise, go WR in the draft. Need to keep the positional cost low for the next few years.

2. If the Pats think Cannon is ready to be a starter, let Vollmer walk. If he can be re-signed for reasonably money ($6M/year or less) then it's an option. Otherwise, the transition tag is an option, if not used on Talib.

3. I like the idea of pairing Fluker with either Vollmer or Cannon. Very powerful line. If Vollmer walks, the coaching staff can decide which of Fluker/Cannon to put at RT and which at RG. A backup/swing tackle would be useful. Menelik Watson, Reid Fragel, and Terron Armstead are all options.

4. If we didn't get a WR in FA, I'd consider getting 3 in the draft. Someone like Austin, someone like Hunter, and maybe a guy like Marquise Goodwin who could be a faster Deion Branch replacement, with breakaway and deep capability. The trick is obviously getting enough draft picks to do that.

5. WIth the money available by not signing Welker or Vollmer, extend Talib and sign Kenny Phillips.

I'm almost with you on that approach. I'd like to find a pass rusher still. I think Ansah is now gone. He showed what's possible in the Senior Bowl with a dominant performance. With that and, no doubt, an outstanding combine, I think Ansah's stock is top 10, top 15 at worst. Daniel Jeremiah has us taking Carradine in the first in his latest mock. I'd still love to add him somewhere or Datone Jones or Sciz's pick Cornelius Washington. Obviously I prefer Armstead but any of your three OT's are fine and I want Mcfadden. So I'll settle for two WR's + Hartline. Goodwin is really growing on me so I'll take him and Wheaton/Patton/Hopkins as my choices. So:

1st - BPA Cooper/Fluker/Datone Jones/WR if the previous three jump in to this territory

2nd WR if not taken in first or OT (Armstead/Long/Watson

3rd Mcfadden

Additional 4th/5th - Goodwin

7A - Jusczczyk

7B - Special teamer/faller/BPA

something like that.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm almost with you on that approach. I'd like to find a pass rusher still. I think Ansah is now gone. He showed what's possible in the Senior Bowl with a dominant performance. With that and, no doubt, an outstanding combine, I think Ansah's stock is top 10, top 15 at worst. Daniel Jeremiah has us taking Carradine in the first in his latest mock. I'd still love to add him somewhere or Datone Jones or Sciz's pick Cornelius Washington. Obviously I prefer Armstead but any of your three OT's are fine and I want Mcfadden. So I'll settle for two WR's + Hartline. Goodwin is really growing on me so I'll take him and Wheaton/Patton/Hopkins as my choices. So:

1st - BPA Cooper/Fluker/Datone Jones/WR if the previous three jump in to this territory

2nd WR if not taken in first or OT (Armstead/Long/Watson

3rd Mcfadden

Additional 4th/5th - Goodwin

7A - Jusczczyk

7B - Special teamer/faller/BPA

something like that.

Some thoughts back at you:

1. I agree that Ansah will go. Someone will go for the potential, and top 20. I'm not a big fan of Walter Football, but they had this comment:

Ezekiel Ansah was just OK in the Senior Bowl practices because he was thinking too much. He stopped thinking and just played during the game, and the result was a dominant performance. Ansah destroyed every lineman he went up against. He put tons of pressure on the quarterbacks and stopped ball-carriers for minimal gains (or losses). He also recorded a strip-sack of Ryan Nassib. Ansah was awesome, and there's a good chance he'll be taken as high as ninth overall in the 2013 NFL Draft. I currently have him going to the Giants in my 2013 NFL Mock Draft, but it's doubtful that he's getting there now.

WalterFootball.com: 2013 Senior Bowl Draft Stock

People will forget the mediocre week of practice and raw technique, and remember what Ansah was able to accomplish against high level competition with his athleticism, which will undoubtedly be featured at the Combine.

At least we got Armond Armstead.

2. I think the biggest problem that the Pats have right now in general is that they have a tight cap situation and few draft picks. If we had 12 picks like we did in 2009-2011, this would be much easier. We could load up on 3 receivers, add a couple of DBs, a pass rusher, a DT, and a couple of linemen. This is a really deep draft, and there will be good talent available in the 5th round, and possibly later. But with only 5 picks, we don't have the resources to do that, so we have to pick and choose. Some people will argue that we need fewer players, but with our cap situation, low cost depth is vitally important. And the draft is the best way to get low cost depth for 3-4 years.

3. As a day 3 alternative to Ansah, 3 guys currently stand out to me: Lavarr Edwards, Cornelius Washington, and David Bass. Those guys all have a lot of athleticism and upside. They could be worked in as sub rushers while they develop, and I wouldn't be surprised if one or more of them turns out to be a stud. The problem right now is that we don't have any day 3 picks before the 7th round. But I'd be thrilled to get one of those 3 guys and have them bump Jermaine Cunningham off the roster. There's no way in hell I spend a 1st round pick on Tank Carradine coming off an ACL injury - and with Armstead and Ninkovich already at DE, I probably don't want to use a 1st round pick on a pass rusher, anyway. Not enough value.

4. With Armond Armstead signed, I'm also off the Datone Jones bandwagon. Great player, but I'm not sure where he fits, unless the plan is to bulk him up and use him as a pure DT. As a day 3 steal, I'd be thrilled. As a 1st/2nd round pick, no thanks. But again, it's nothing against the player.

5. I really think that cap control will be a major theme of the offseason. Keeping positional cost down. With Nate Solder looking at big money in a few years (hopefully by which time we will be out fro under Mankins' contract) I'm not sure we can pay Vollmer, unless he takes a team-friendly deal. So we either tag/transition him or move on with a low priced replacement, based on whether the team thinks Cannon is ready. Add a stud like Cooper or Fluker and you keep the positional cost down for another few years. Dan Connolly could be a cap casualty as early as 2014 ($4M is a lot to pay for what he has provided, and he will be 32 in 2014. Guys like Menelik Watson, Reid Fragel, Kyle Long or Terron Armstead would be great pick ups, again, if we could find enough draft capital.

6. I really like the idea of getting Kyle Juszczyk as a FB/H-back. Don't know if he'll last till #202 (which will get pushed back 10 picks or so by comp picks).

In general, I believe that the most likely route to both short and long term success is to stick to the proven philosophy of building around the trenches, and fill in the other positions at reasonable cost. Don't overspend on WRs and DBs.

 

[manxman2601]

Some thoughts back at you:

1. I agree that Ansah will go. Someone will go for the potential, and top 20. I'm not a big fan of Walter Football, but they had this comment:



WalterFootball.com: 2013 Senior Bowl Draft Stock

People will forget the mediocre week of practice and raw technique, and remember what Ansah was able to accomplish against high level competition with his athleticism, which will undoubtedly be featured at the Combine.

At least we got Armond Armstead.

2. I think the biggest problem that the Pats have right now in general is that they have a tight cap situation and few draft picks. If we had 12 picks like we did in 2009-2011, this would be much easier. We could load up on 3 receivers, add a couple of DBs, a pass rusher, a DT, and a couple of linemen. This is a really deep draft, and there will be good talent available in the 5th round, and possibly later. But with only 5 picks, we don't have the resources to do that, so we have to pick and choose. Some people will argue that we need fewer players, but with our cap situation, low cost depth is vitally important. And the draft is the best way to get low cost depth for 3-4 years.

3. As a day 3 alternative to Ansah, 3 guys currently stand out to me: Lavarr Edwards, Cornelius Washington, and David Bass. Those guys all have a lot of athleticism and upside. They could be worked in as sub rushers while they develop, and I wouldn't be surprised if one or more of them turns out to be a stud. The problem right now is that we don't have any day 3 picks before the 7th round. But I'd be thrilled to get one of those 3 guys and have them bump Jermaine Cunningham off the roster. There's no way in hell I spend a 1st round pick on Tank Carradine coming off an ACL injury - and with Armstead and Ninkovich already at DE, I probably don't want to use a 1st round pick on a pass rusher, anyway. Not enough value.

4. With Armond Armstead signed, I'm also off the Datone Jones bandwagon. Great player, but I'm not sure where he fits, unless the plan is to bulk him up and use him as a pure DT. As a day 3 steal, I'd be thrilled. As a 1st/2nd round pick, no thanks. But again, it's nothing against the player.

5. I really think that cap control will be a major theme of the offseason. Keeping positional cost down. With Nate Solder looking at big money in a few years (hopefully by which time we will be out fro under Mankins' contract) I'm not sure we can pay Vollmer, unless he takes a team-friendly deal. So we either tag/transition him or move on with a low priced replacement, based on whether the team thinks Cannon is ready. Add a stud like Cooper or Fluker and you keep the positional cost down for another few years. Dan Connolly could be a cap casualty as early as 2014 ($4M is a lot to pay for what he has provided, and he will be 32 in 2014. Guys like Menelik Watson, Reid Fragel, Kyle Long or Terron Armstead would be great pick ups, again, if we could find enough draft capital.

6. I really like the idea of getting Kyle Juszczyk as a FB/H-back. Don't know if he'll last till #202 (which will get pushed back 10 picks or so by comp picks).

In general, I believe that the most likely route to both short and long term success is to stick to the proven philosophy of building around the trenches, and fill in the other positions at reasonable cost. Don't overspend on WRs and DBs.

1. Don't know if you watched the Senior Bowl, but Juszczyk is having a monster game as a blocking FB.

2. I'm not as high on Armond Armstead as you are. I think he's a great add as an interior guy but I think Datone Jones will be batter as a pass rushing DE as will Carradine. I think we'll just have to disagree on that.

3. I've not seen a single thing of David Bass and it's really frustrating.

4. My Wheaton binky-ism is reaching Mark Barron levels. Setting myself up for disappointment I fear.

5. As aside, had my first look at Garrett Gilkey in a real game. He's not very good unfortunately. Moving on. Armstead wasn't great but mostly held his own.

 

[captain stone]

You should watch Jake Knott (Iowa State). Very good cover LB.

What's the latest on his shoulder?

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

The more I analyze the Pats cap situation, the less likely I see either Welker or Vollmer being back. I could see them throw the transitionary tag on Vollmer to try and force a big offer, but that would be the extent of it. Even with a backloaded salary structure to both, especially on shorter deals, you cant go much lower than 5mill each. Combine either Talib or an equivalent for the defensive backfield, I just dont know if you can drop a quarter of your cap space on either of those guys.

I have been mulling my own "blueprint" which carries a lot of similarities to you Mayo, but the Vollmer contract is one I am finally starting to give up on. Outside of a cheap 1 year prove-me contract, there arent many situations I can include him.

This team almost always operates with a 5mil bubble of protection as well, and there is enough depth spots that already need attention, and very few restructurings that are worth the effort that I am thinking this offseason will be very dissappointing for a lot of fans.

 

[cstjohn17]

I am thinking this off season will be very disappointing for a lot of fans.

Most years the Patriots announce the off season by saying "prepare to be under whelmed..."

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

Most years the Patriots announce the off season by saying "prepare to be under whelmed..."

Yep. The talk of Revis and Wallace and Bowe are humourous enough, but I think when the fans see all pro tackles and receivers walk without replacement, the realization will be a stark contrast from January dreams.

 

[DaBruinz]

With the additions of Armstead and Vega (providing he's released from his Blue Bombers Contract), do you see the Pats moving back to the 3-4?

I think that Armstead could be the RDE that we haven't had since Seymour. Then, the Pats could plug and play at LDE whomever they felt could fit and use Jones, Ninkovich, Hightower on the outside with Vega..Or Hightower could swing inside when Spikes goes off on passing downs..

 

[DaBruinz]

Yep. The talk of Revis and Wallace and Bowe are humourous enough, but I think when the fans see all pro tackles and receivers walk without replacement, the realization will be a stark contrast from January dreams.

If you think that the Pats will let Welker and Vollmer walk without replacing them then you are seriously mis-informed about this team. They already have Marcus Cannon to fill in at RT. Not my first choice, but he's proven to be capable. And the Pats could sign someone like Brian Hartline or Danny Amendola to replace Welker.

Let's not forget that the Pats will also be getting Gronkowski and Jake Ballard back from the IR. We could, very well, see Hernandez lining up at WR more often than not.

 

[mayoclinic]

The more I analyze the Pats cap situation, the less likely I see either Welker or Vollmer being back. I could see them throw the transitionary tag on Vollmer to try and force a big offer, but that would be the extent of it. Even with a backloaded salary structure to both, especially on shorter deals, you cant go much lower than 5mill each. Combine either Talib or an equivalent for the defensive backfield, I just dont know if you can drop a quarter of your cap space on either of those guys.

I have been mulling my own "blueprint" which carries a lot of similarities to you Mayo, but the Vollmer contract is one I am finally starting to give up on. Outside of a cheap 1 year prove-me contract, there arent many situations I can include him.

This team almost always operates with a 5mil bubble of protection as well, and there is enough depth spots that already need attention, and very few restructurings that are worth the effort that I am thinking this offseason will be very dissappointing for a lot of fans.

I personally agree that the more I look at the cap situation, the less likely I see the Pats keeping Welker and Vollmer. It depends in part on to what degree they are confident in finding replacements, either currently in house (Cannon, Edelman) or via FA or the draft. It's possible that a team-friendly deal could be worked out with Vollmer, or that the team could tag him to buy a year's time if necessary, but I think the most likey scenario is one where he walks. I personally think Welker's gone, unless he's willing to take a really team-friendly deal, and I can't imagine that happening.

If I had to guess, I'd say that we will be seriously "underwhelmed" this FA and there will be mass cries of gloom and doom from the fan base and the media. But the team will survive and perhaps even thrive next year, and will be better off in the long run for not tying up too much of it's valuable cap room. JMHO.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

If there is one player in free agency that I would love to make a move for it would be Randy Starks. Looking back over the history of the patriots dline, you cant help but notice the abundance of multiple personnel groups they could run no matter the opponent.

I think this group is finally to the point where one extra body could truly make an enormous difference. With armstead now in the fold, Jones progressing very nicely, Ninko being a Swiss Army knife, the line has many different pieces that can contribute in a multitude of ways. Someone like Randy starks, could take a ton of pressure off of Wilfork, has history at nose, tackle and end, 3-4 and 4-3, scheme diverse as they come, and on a miami team that has a multitude of players needing new contracts.

Hes a pro bowl player (replacement, but still) but I think would give the dline front 5 guys (deaderick, armstead, wilfork, love) who could be mixed through depending on the opponent. He would also be an every down lineman who can actually push the pocket and collect a couple sacks from the interior, which no one outside of wilfork and armstead have the ability to do.

Now, with all of this said, its hard to say there is no money for welker and vollmer and then magically have money for an outsider, but I think one more upper echelon front 4 may have as great an impact as any other weapon we could be talking about.

 

[manxman2601]

What's the latest on his shoulder?

Not sure, but he's in training for combine/pro-day according to his twitter feed, so can't be too serious.

 

[captain stone]

Thanks; I hadn't been able to find anything about him more recently than mid-December.

 

[mayoclinic]

A slightly updated post-Senior Bowl variant of my Blueprint, which tries to balance short and long term competitiveness with cap considerations:

The Next 3 Months:

1. The secondary:

- Re-sign Aqib Talib if possible (under $7M/year). Continuity is good, but don't break the bank. If Talib can't be re-signed, Keenan Lewis would be a good alternative

- Re-sign Kyle Arrington if cheap (under $1.5M/year).

- Assess whether Ras-I Dowling is likely to make a full recovery in 2013, and whether he fits better as a press-man CB or as a hybrid CB/S

- Keep Devin McCourty at FS and don't move him around

- Sign UFA FA SS Kenny Phillips. Around $4-5M/year. He would provide the physical safety complement to McCourty that we need, while still being good in coverage and not compromising the deep threat. Phillips is only 26, and played very well in combination with Antrel Rolle. Phillips' injury history will hopefully keep his price down.

- Let Patrick Chung walk

- If Phillips is signed, consider trading Steve Gregory if the Pats can get anything for him. Gregory is a solid veteran with good versatility, and should have some value. But he is not worth is cap hit as a backup safety for the Pats. I don't know if they could get anything for Gregory, but I'd try.

2. The DL:

- Armond Armstead has already been signed. The Pats' still have Myron Pryor's rights for 2013, and Marcus Forston has been promoted from the PS. Those 3 alone will be a significant infusion of talent on the DL.

3. The OL:

- Let Sebastian Vollmer walk. I'm a huge Vollmer fan, but it just doesn't make sense to pay big money to a 29 year old tackle with a history of back injuries. With one (maybe too much) big money contract already tied up in Mankins, over-spending on Vollmer would be crippling to the team. A tag and trade deal could be an option - maybe we could get a 3rd round pick for him? But I doubt it's very likely.

- Re-sign Donald Thomas. He arguably outplayed Dan Connolly last year, is younger, and should be signed quickly before someone overpays him.

4. The WRs and RBs:

- Let Wes Welker walk. As with Vollmer, it hurts, but the team just can't afford to invest in the kind of long term deal Welker will want. They need to get younger and cheaper at the position, having tied up a lot of money in Gronk and Hernandez. I don't think a "tag and trade" deal is an option with Welker.

- Re-sign Julian Edelman. If possible, re-sign Danny Woodhead.

5. Miscellaneous:

- Possible extensions for Brady and Wilfork that might free up some cap space

- Sign RFAs Dane Fletcher, and Jake Ballard and possibly Michael Hoomanwanui. If the latter, consider trading Daniel Fells if the team can get anything for him, though that may be unlikely.

- Possibly sign a veteran QB like Matt Cassel or Brian Hoyer, if the price is right

The Draft:

*** Trade: Cleveland trades #6 to St. Louis for #16 and 22. Rams trade up for Eric Fisher. Not a trade directly involving the Pats, but ...

*** Trade: Cleveland trades #22 and a 2014 3nd round pick (upgradeable to a 2nd depending on Mallett's performance) to New England for QB Ryan Mallett. A last minute draft day trade, with the Browns deciding they don't like the available QB options. They still have a 1st round pick at #16.

22. Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio St. 6'3" 320#. Currently NFL DraftScout #28.

Super Beast! Hankins slipping would be like Vince Wilfork in 2004 - a top 5-10 talent who drops. With BB's connections to Urban Meyer and Mike Vrabel he will be all over this kid, and I think he would pounce if the opportunity arose. Hankins can play in 4-3 and 3-4 schemes, and outside in a 3-4. A base DL of Armstead-Wilfork-Hankins-Jones would be dominant - by far our best line since 2008 - and would allow easy conversion between 3-4 and 4-3 schemes with Jones standing up at times. Rob Ninkovich could play both at OLB (helping our coverage, along with the return of Dane Fletcher) and at DE, with Armond Armstead moving inside as an interior pass rusher.

29. DJ Fluker, OL, Alabama. 6'5" 350. Currently NFL DraftScout #29.

Beast! Fluker plays RT for Alabama, but would probably move inside to RG, with Dan Connolly moving to center. An OL of Solder-Mankins-Connolly-Fluker-Vollmer would be incredibly powerful. Fluker has the power of Chance Warmack, but he is nimble footed enough to get out in space. He also has incredibly long arms, and the versatility to move to RT in a pinch.

59. Justin Hunter, WR, Louisiana Tech. 6'4" 200#. Currently NFL DraftScout #65.

Stud Horse! Hunter is the kind of big, physical WR that the Pats have lacked for a long time. Along with Brian Hartline, he would give the Pats' WR corps a very different look from what they have had over the past 3 years. They would still have the TEs and the move-based weapons (though with much more explosiveness), but also legitimate outside receiving threats who can move the chains and work the sidelines in Hunter and Hartline. Hunter would also be an excellent red zone threat.

This pick could also be Quinton Patton (NFL DraftScout #55) or Da'Rick Rogers (NFL DraftScout #74). I favor Hunter because of his upside, and because I think we can get a Patton-like option later.

91. Marquise Goodwin, WR, Texas. 5'9" 179#. Currently NFL DraftScout #87.

Greyhound! A world class sprinter and 2012 Olympian in the long jump, Goodwin showed surprising WR skills including good route running and excellent hands at the Senior Bowl. He would combine with Jeff Demps to provide an amazing speed package that would be very difficult to defend, with the ability to take it to the house at any time.

*** Trade: The Pats trade Daniel Fells to Chicago for #149 overall. The Bears need TE help, and Fells is a good blocker who could help with their weak OL. The Pats dump Fells' salary.

146. Chris Harper, WR, Kansas St. 6'1" 228#. Currently NFL DraftScout #144.

Sleeper Stud Horse! Harper is an Anquan Bolden/Chris Carter kind of physical WR who can dish out some punishment to DBs and move the chains, but who has surprising speed and deceptive breakaway capability. He is a terrific blocker. Where Hunter adds size and playmaking and Goodwin adds speed and home run capability, Harper adds physicality to the WR position. A "WR by committee" group of Lloyd-Hunter-Edelman-Goodwin-Harper would be very nice, IMHO, especially when combined with the TE and RB options, and very cost effective.

*** Trade: New England trades S Steve Gregory to Detroit for #161 and a conditional 2014 pick. With Kenny Phillips signed and Tavon Wilson and Nate Ebner hopefully making a leap, Gregory is expendable. The Pats dump his salary. With Louis Delmas a FA (and always injured even if they keep him) Detroit needs FS depth, and gets a veteran for an early 6th round pick.

161. Kyle Juszczyk, FB/H-Back, Harvard. 6'1" 248#. Currently NFL DraftScout #158.

Sleeper Stud Horse! Juszczyk is a big dude who can clear out the pile as a blocking fullback but who also has soft hands and is a nice receiver out of the backfield, or in motion. There are rumors he may have close to 4.5 speed, and he could be a good depth option as a backup "move TE" given that Aaron Hernandez has yet to play a full 16 game season. He would help the running game in short yardage situations and running inside against tough lines, and provide depth at TE.

*** Trade: NE trades #202, 219 and a 2014 6th round pick to Tampa Bay for #171.

171. Tyrann Mathieu, DB, LSU. 5'9" 178#. Currently NFL DraftScout #181.

Fallen Beast! The Pats trade up to get the "Honey Badger", who will add toughness and attitude to the secondary along with Talib and Alfonzo Dennard. He can play a nickel/dime slot CB role, and will excel on STs. Talib, Dennard, Dowling, Arrington and Mathieu would be a very good CB group. McCourty, Phillips, Wilson and Ebner would be a very good safety group.

Note that the Pats would have an extra 2014 3rd round pick, in addition to their full complement of draft picks.

The 2013 Team:

QB(2): Brady, veteran/Kafka
RB(4): Ridley, Vereen, Bolden, Demps; possibly Woodhead
FB/H-Back(1): Juszczyk
TE(3): Gronkowski, Hernandez, Ballard, [Juszczyk]; possibly Hoomanawanui
WR(6): Lloyd, Rogers, Edelman, Goodwin, Harper, Slater
OT(3): Solder, Cannon, Zusevice; Fluker can also play tackle if needed
OG/C(6): Mankins, Fluker, Connolly, Wendell, Thomas, McDonald

DT(5): Wilfork, Hankins, [Armstead], Love, Deaderick, Pryor/Forston
DE(6): Jones, Ninkovich, Armstead, Cunningham, Francis, Bequette
LB(5): Mayo, Hightower, Spikes, Fletcher, Tarpinian Ninkovich can also play LB
S(4): McCourty, Phillips, Wilson, Ebner
CB(5): Talib/Lewis, Dennard, Dowling, Arrington, Mathieu

ST(3): Gostkowksi, Mesko, Aiken

That's 53 players, assuming no Woodhead or Hoomanawanui.

That team saves a bunch of money by letting Welker, Vollmer and Woodhead walk and dumping Fells and Gregory (assuming they can do it). I assume some contract restructurings would also be likely for guys like Gostkowski and Connolly.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

As always A+ across the board.

A couple thoughts.

1. I think it's more likely we see Ghost cut than restructured, and looking at a kicker in round 4-5 like sturgis if the picks are available. That's an extra 1.8mil available, and the question of his value is up for debate

2. I am not sure how I feel about restructuring either Connolly or mankins this summer. Connolly is already looking prohibitively expensive next summer (4+), while Mankins health issues need to be put to rest before rolling guaranteed dollars into the final year of his contract. I think it may be best to sit on both of those contracts, if only to protect against bigger issues next summer.

3. I really like the Hankins idea( I like him more than Star at this point) but I think I would still prefer another high quality vet before another young piece up front. With that said, the dollars probably won't be there or that, so youth is never a bad strategy.

4. I agree in the letting go of all the same players via ufa, but I wonder if letting woodhead and welker go at the same time will end up being wise. It's strange to say, but woodhead is more welker like than anyone else on our roster. That's a lot of quick routes out the door at once.

5. Your value on mallet is probably more viable and less pipe dream than otherwise mentioned. Maybe a tagged and signed welker to accompany young Ryan kicks that value up.

6. I love the idea of double dipping on receivers like we have been prone to do in recent years, especially with speed and quickness being highlighted in both players.

7. I agree that the only restructuring worth our time is probably wilfork and Brady on extensions. Those alone should free up an additional 6-10mill

8. Did you have a rough estimation where all these deals leave us in regards to the cap?

 

[mayoclinic]

As always A+ across the board.

A couple thoughts.

1. I think it's more likely we see Ghost cut than restructured, and looking at a kicker in round 4-5 like sturgis if the picks are available. That's an extra 1.8mil available, and the question of his value is up for debate

2. I am not sure how I feel about restructuring either Connolly or mankins this summer. Connolly is already looking prohibitively expensive next summer (4+), while Mankins health issues need to be put to rest before rolling guaranteed dollars into the final year of his contract. I think it may be best to sit on both of those contracts, if only to protect against bigger issues next summer.

3. I really like the Hankins idea( I like him more than Star at this point) but I think I would still prefer another high quality vet before another young piece up front. With that said, the dollars probably won't be there or that, so youth is never a bad strategy.

4. I agree in the letting go of all the same players via ufa, but I wonder if letting woodhead and welker go at the same time will end up being wise. It's strange to say, but woodhead is more welker like than anyone else on our roster. That's a lot of quick routes out the door at once.

5. Your value on mallet is probably more viable and less pipe dream than otherwise mentioned. Maybe a tagged and signed welker to accompany young Ryan kicks that value up.

6. I love the idea of double dipping on receivers like we have been prone to do in recent years, especially with speed and quickness being highlighted in both players.

7. I agree that the only restructuring worth our time is probably wilfork and Brady on extensions. Those alone should free up an additional 6-10mill

8. Did you have a rough estimation where all these deals leave us in regards to the cap?

A couple of thoughts:

1. I like Hankins more than Star, and as much as Louis Nix. I think he's a top 5 talent. Without the Mallett fantasy trade, my DT prospect of choice would be William Campbell of Michigan, who was included in the previous iteration. I think he's a Michael Brockers/Akiem Hicks kind of potential prospect. So in the scenario above, if the Mallett trade fell through, it would just be a case of figuring out how to scroung another 5th round pick (or later) and picking up Campbell. Ideally, I'd love to add both Hankins and Campbell. Along with Armond Armstead and Chandler Jones, that would be an insane group of young talent on DL.

2. As great as Wes Welker has been, I think Brady has gotten too much in a "comfort zone" always going to a few trusted guys, and needs to get back to spreading the ball around more. 304/641 passes in 2012 (47%) were targeted to either Welker or Lloyd. That's not that far off 2009, when 50.7% (300/592) were targeted to Welker and Moss, and BB himself admitted on "A football life" that the Pats were too one-dimensional and too predictable. 40 out of 82 offensive plays in the AFCCG - and 40/54 pass plays - were targeted at either Welker (12), Lloyd (14) or Hernandez (14). Not very diverse. So as great as Welker is, given the cap situation, I'm ok with the idea of moving on and going back to a "wide receiver by committee" (WRBC) approach with more guys and more ball distribution.

3. If we can afford it, I'm all for re-signing Danny Woodhead. In fact, I think an interesting option with the "crowd" at RB is to move Woodhead to receiver to get him in space more, or at least use him as a hybrid RB/WR. I agree that he provides valuable leadership and toughness.

4. Cutting Gregory and Fells would save $1.5M in 2013 and $4.2M in 2014. I'm not sure if trading them would save some of their dead money hit or not, so it might be a bit more. Cutting Connolly and Gostkowski would save about $3M in 2013 and $6M in 2014; I'm suggesting that they restructure or take a pay cut. I believe there are NFLPA rules about how much salaries can be reduced. But I'm guessing the Pats could end up saving $3+M this year and more like $7-10M in 2014. Extending Brady and Wilfork is harder to predict in terms of cap savings. Mankins is more a case of moving bonus money around. The rest is smaller stuff with miscellaneous savings of a few million here and there. It's a pure guestimate, but I'm guessing the Pats could add another $10M or so to their cap space altogether. More importantly, they wouldn't be re-signing Welker and Vollmer. The signings would be Talib, Kenny Phillips, Julian, Edelman, Donald Thomas, Kyle Arrington, Dane Fletcher and Jake Ballard. Maybe Danny Woodhead and Michael Hoomanawanui. I think those sigings could easily be fit under that amount of cap space, along with money for rookies, IR and the PS and some reserve money, and still field a competitive team for 2013 and be well positioned for the long term. But I'm not a capologist, and it's just a guestimate.

 

[everlong]

I don't see STL trading two firsts in a draft that deep but not top heavy and that's without getting into Cleveland giving up a first for Mallett.

Love the Hankins pick. Like the Fluker pick and love it if Vollmer walked. Between him and Cannon that would be a lot of beef on that side to run the ball. I still wouldn't mind it going to another DL slot or safety.

I like all three of your WR picks but I don't see the Pats tripling up at that position even if there is merit to the need. That's pretty much saying we can't draft this position to save our lives so hopefully we get one gem in three.

I think somebody will bike on Mathieu higher than that but his combine numbers in the 3-cone and short shuttle will be interesting. With the slot receiver being such a big part of offenses if he shows good short area quickness I think he could be great as the nickle corner with his physicality.

I don't think Fells and Gregory have the trade value you've assigned them.

 

[patsfaninpa]

If you let Welker go, WR moves right up to the top of the list as far as needs. Even ahead of DL and most certainly ahead of OL. I don't want to trust Justin Hunter to pick up our offense. I'd draft one in the first in that scenario. I caught a few Clemson games with De'Andre Hopkins and he usually lived up to his billing. That big target we've been lacking. I'd take one at 59 too.

 

[everlong]

They're going to have to tag or extend Welker or pick up a very good FA of which I'm not in love with any of them for the Pats system or trade for one. Jeremy Maclin would be my first choice if you could trade for him and extend him all at once but the Eagles aren't doing that.

 

[mayoclinic]

I like all three of your WR picks but I don't see the Pats tripling up at that position even if there is merit to the need. That's pretty much saying we can't draft this position to save our lives so hopefully we get one gem in three.

If you let Welker go, WR moves right up to the top of the list as far as needs. Even ahead of DL and most certainly ahead of OL. I don't want to trust Justin Hunter to pick up our offense. I'd draft one in the first in that scenario. I caught a few Clemson games with De'Andre Hopkins and he usually lived up to his billing. That big target we've been lacking. I'd take one at 59 too.

They're going to have to tag or extend Welker or pick up a very good FA of which I'm not in love with any of them for the Pats system or trade for one. Jeremy Maclin would be my first choice if you could trade for him and extend him all at once but the Eagles aren't doing that.

Suffice it to say that I couldn't disagree more with these thoughts. IMHO, this is the road to PERDITION and DAMNATION, from both a cap and a offensive scheme perspective. Tying up big money in Welker or a FA will cripple us (and guys like Maclin or Harvin will want big money). "Replacing" Welker with another big name isn't the answer. Drafting a rookie WR in the 1st round (which BB has never done) isn't the answer, and generally they take time to develop.

I believe that the answer is to go back to "wide receiver by committee", distributing the ball to a bunch of guys, none of whom is dominant, in conjunction with the TEs and the running game. I think that these guys can come from re-signings (Edelman), position conversions (moving one of Woodhead, Demps or Vereen to WR or making them a RB/WR hybrid in the Dexter McCluster mold), low profile FA signings (not big name/big money signings) or drafting several rookies, NOT in the hope that the Pats will "get one gem in three" but as complementary guys, with none being expected to be "the man".

Since this is a broader topic, I've put some of these thoughts in more detail in a separate thread:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/1004784-wr-conundrum.html