Some miscellaneous responses and thoughts:
The lack of LB was my biggest surprise (and disappointment) from the draft as well. I have to think that the issues with Christian Jones go way beyond one failed drug test, since other players who tested positive slipped only slightly.
The most interesting take I've heard on Jones' slide was from Walter Football, FWIW:
There was a nice buzz about Jones heading into the his senior season. Scouts told WalterFootball.com that many believed Jones was going to enter the 2013 NFL Draft after his junior season and was getting second-day estimations. As a senior, Jones' production fell down significantly as Florida State moved him from linebacker to defensive end because of losses to the NFL. He contributed to the Seminoles' National Championship campaign, but was by no means a force.
The 6-foot-3, 240-pounder has the speed and athleticism to receive second-day grades at the end of his junior and senior season. However in the lead up to the 2014 NFL Draft, Jones hurt his draft stock. Sources said the biggest reason that Jones went undrafted was because he performed poorly on the chalk board during team interviews. Teams questioned his ability to learn his position and playbook in the NFL. Jones has to be assignment sound and can't get away with freelancing like good athletes can in college.
http://walterfootball.com/wu2014cjones.php
I had assumed that because Jones played so many different positions in college that he would excel at "learning his position". If this was a major question then I could see it having a big impact on his draft spot, especially combined with decreased senior production, poorer measurables than predicted at the Combine, and a positive Combine drug test.
There is no question in my mind that this is the most talented, explosive, deep and most versatile defensive rosters that we've seen here for a LONG, long time. I can't wait to see the final product in action in September.
I think this roster has at least 12-13 guys capable of being solid starters: Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Dominique Easley, Vince Wilfork (if he can recover to a meaningful level) and Tommy Kelly on the DL; Jerod Mayo, Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins at LB; and Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, Alfonzo Dennard, Devin McCourty and Logan Ryan at DB. In addition, Kyle Arrington is a solid nickel/dime/slot CB. If any of Armond Armstead, Sealver Siliga, Michael Buchanan or Duron Harmon can step up, this would be an even deeper and stronger group.
1. I see a scenario where we keep 10 DLmen, 10 DB's and only 5 LB's
That's been my working assumption. 8 DBs seem like a lock barring injury (Revis, McCourty, Browner, Dennard, Ryan, Arrington, Harmon and Ebner - the latter mainly as a ST ace). I assume that Jemea Thomas, Tavon Wilson, Pat Chung and Justin Green are fighting for 1-2 roster spots. Mayo, Collins and Hightower are locks at LB; I'd love the Pats to sign James Anderson after June 1 - he's sort of a Steve Gregory kind of player at LB, and as a low-cost reserve capable or starting in a pinch would be an outstanding addition - and let Steve Beauharnais, James Morris and whoever else fight it out for the 5th LB spot. Rob Ninkovich could also get some snaps at LB. That leaves around 10 DL spots, which seems about right.
One important consideration is that the Pats will be in position to "phase in" some key defenders. Brandon Browner won't count against the roster for his 4 game suspension, and any of Will Smith (very likely, IMO), Vince Wilfork (quite possible) and Dominique Easley (unlikely, IMO) could start the season on PUP. It's a long, long season, and there's no need to have the final defense assembled for week 1. I don't expect to see the "final product" until November or later.
2. I can see using a different starting safety opposite McCourty each week, depending on who the opponent is. ie Harmon vs certain teams, Browner vs others, Wilson/Ebner vs someone else.
I think that a bunch of guys will get time at safety, but I'm not sure I buy into this. Consistency is important. I think that our 5 best DBs are Revis, McCourty, Browner, Dennard and Ryan, and those are the 5 guys I would want on the field most of the time. How those guys get deployed and what their positional designations are is less important to me. IMO, there is a big drop off between those 5 guys and the next tier, unless someone makes a big leap.
3. For the first time in....like forever, I can forsee a lot of presnap and postsnap movement by the Pats DL/LB's.
I think there will be a lot of pre- and post-snap movement from both the front 7 and the secondary. The 3 guys who stand out to me as defensive "queens on the chessboard" who can be moved around to create mismatches are Dominique Easley on the DL, Jamie Collins at the LB level, and Brandon Browner in the secondary. Logan Ryan could also possibly fall into that category, moving between safety, press-man CB, and slot CB. I think that BB/MP will rely the majority of guys to "do their job", provide the backbone of the defense, coordinate things and make sure that there aren't major breakdowns (Mayo, Hightower, Ninkovich, Jones, Revis and McCourty), but will have more freedom and flexibility to get creative with the other guys because he has such a solid foundation and because there is so much playmaking capability and ability to disrupt and wreck havoc. Revis' impact will be huge, taking away half the field.
4. I agree with Mayo, that Vince's impact on this defense is likely to be small. (hope I am wrong), but not matter. If Kelly is back to his 2013 form, he showed in his brief time on the field, he can consistently provide a power push up the middle that HAS to be attacked by the offense. His size and power were the reason I was initially so hot on Hageman.
Having that kind of power rush next to players with skill sets like Easly, Armstead, and CJones make for a wealth of schematic opportunities for them to work with both the DE's and Kelly. As for Vince, if he can come back and be a better than average runstopper this season, playing 30% of the snaps, I'd be thrilled.....even though I'm sure Vince won't be.
I'll be thrilled if Wilfork can recover to something close to his 2011-2012 form, and obviously that would be a great addition to the defense, but I'm not counting on it, and I don't think it's critical. I'm more optimistic about Kelly returning to his pre-injury 2013 form, and agree with you that he could have a big impact. I'm still optimistic about Armond Armstead stepping up, as well. I'm happy to let this sort itself out.
I would love to see a 5-2 "base" with a DL such as the following:
LDE Ninkovich/Hightower - 3/5-tech Kelly/Armstead - NT Wilfork/Siliga - 3T Easley/Chr. Jones - RDE Cha. Jones/Buchanan
In "sub" (70% of the time), either the NT, 3/5 tech or LDE would come off the field, depending on the specific opponent and scheme, morphing into a 4-2-5 (over or under, depending on who drops out) / 3-3-5 (with someone standing up) / 5-1-5 (with someone moving up on the line) / 4-1-6 (with a LB playing more of a hybrid LB/S role, or with a 6th DB playing a hybrid role).
Next year I'm hoping we can get a chance at randy gregory or landon collins but we most likely won't have a chance at either I like Michael Bennett from Ohio State, calhoun from MSU and Shaq Thomson a lot as well
It's obviously very early, but (assuming Revis is signed long term) I'm focusing on DE and LB/S, as mentioned above. I think that QB, OL, DL and DB are likely to be the 4 deepest positions for 2015. Of the DE prospects, I think that they can be grouped into 3 categories:
- "Base DEs" who can play inside at DT. Leonard Williams (6'4" 290#), Shawn Oakman (6'8" 285#), Arik Armstead (6'7" 290#), Henry Anderson (6'5" 295#) and Mario Edwards (6'3" 282#) fall into this group. Michael Bennett could also fit here as a DE/DT hybrid. Lots of different shapes and skill sets.
- "Base DE's" who have the strength and power to anchor but also the athleticism and flexibility to stand up at times and play different roles. Shilique Calhoun (6'4" 250#), Dante Fowler (6'3" 266#, has played LB and all over the DL), and Bronson Kaufusi (6'6" 270#; moving from DE to OLB this year) all fall into those role. Cedric Reed (6'5" 258#), Marcus Golden (6'3" 260#) and Trey Flowers (6'3" 263#) could possibly also fit in here.
- "Edge rushers", who are mainly attacking players (pass rushers), whether as DEs or OLBs. Randy Gregory (more like Anthony Barr than Chandler Jones, IMO), Vic Beasley, Noah Spence I don't see this group as being as interesting to me as the other two groups, but that's JMO.
As far as LB/S space players, I should have included Landon Collins in my list. Josh Harvey-Clemons has transferred to Louisville and will sit out 2014 so I don't expect him to come out until 2016; Derrick Moncrief (who I think will be a big time player) is a JUCO transfer and also unlikely to come out until 2016, and Myles Jack is a true sophomore and not draft eligible. But between Landon Collins, Cody Prewitt, Justin Garrett, Shaq Thompson, Ronald Martin and Derrick Malone I think there is going to be a pretty deep group for 2015.
There's plenty of time to see how the 2014 defense pans out and what the needs are for 2015, but there is a ton of exciting talent coming down the pipeline.
