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Money and cap considerations: another year of Brady or ... ?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Tunescribe, Dec 31, 2019.

  1. lancerman

    lancerman Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Don't talk to me about being a time waster when you inserted yourself into the discussion I was having about Brissett, refused for multiple posts to bring up anything relevant and worth discussing, and in the one post you did went on a crazy tirade about who the mob agreed with when it was nothing I was even talking about. Like are you stable right now?
     
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  2. Ross12

    Ross12 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    That’s so extremely different though. “Omg my rookie third-string QB won a game against a good team decisively with only a week of prep time it’s so awesome” is a far cry from “my rookie backup QB is doing really good in practice working with my first-team in place of my starting QB week after week after week and is making great progress.”

    Praising a great one-game effort does not equal a long term continuous sort of thing.
     
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  3. lancerman

    lancerman Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Is it? Brissett was getting first team reps at the time. He just had a very successful first game where he kept the team steady despite being a rookie. I mean Belichick praises alot of guys over practice, typically the ones who aren't getting praised by the media.

    I'm not saying Stidham has zero chance. I'm saying there's no tangible reason to think he is the guy and alot of it is what some of the people here supporting him if it was any other back up rookie QB.
     
  4. QuantumMechanic

    QuantumMechanic Burn it all down! PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Not quite that simple. If the contract voids there’s a $13.5mil hit in 2020. But if they extend him before the void it’s $6.75mil hits in 2020 and 2021.

    So extending Brady does have a $6.75mil “head start” with respect to the 2020 cap.
     
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  5. primetime

    primetime Pro Bowl Player

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    Got it. I thought the contract was basically unextendable as written.
     
  6. QuantumMechanic

    QuantumMechanic Burn it all down! PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Nope. It does have self-destructing language and does prohibit tagging, but before it self-destructs it’s a “normal” contract otherwise and can be rewritten if both sides agree.

    And it self-destructs in March (presumably when the league year begins), so things will move quickly one way or the other.
     
  7. rochrist

    rochrist Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract Weekly Picks Winner

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    No. We've had TWO qbs who have performed in preseason to this level. One was JG, the other was Stidham. Of the two, Stidham was markedly the better of the two. Some of us find that encouraging.

    Clearly you have some agenda that makes you desperate to have Stidham not succeed, so Imma just going to leave you to that.
     
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  8. pencilneckgeek

    pencilneckgeek Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    The Pats have a decent chance to win another Superbowl with Brady. They have little chance with Stidham. The QB position is different from any other position. You can put a lesser player in a position to succeed at a bargain price at any other position. Putting 13% of your cap to QB is not a deal-breaker, but it depends on the rest of the team. I'm going to look at some numbers here to test your premise, Tune. Let's assume the Pats sign brady for 2 years at $52M, cap numbers $25M in 2020 & $27M in 2021. That leaves them $22M (not much) to resign free agents, but there are other ways to save money.

    HT has an $11.4M hit but can save $8.9M by cutting him. He's a great player, but the depth at LB is far better than it is at QB, and he's been lost for many games in the past and might be again. If you cut him, it's like signing TB to a $16M/year deal and needing to bolster the LB corps with mid-level players. That's something that this team has done before. I hate to see HT go, but not as much as I'd hate to see Brady go.

    Sanu has a $6.5M cap hit which can all be saved if he is cut. Bye bye.

    The Pats now have $37.4M against the cap and the best QB of all time. They'll need to hold onto $7.4-10 M of that, but we can try to get that back with some mid-level cuts or a restructure or two later on in the process. Let's see what their team looks like and what they need to go get, starting with their positions of need.

    WR - Dorsett and Sanu are now gone. The team is not much worse for it, but they need to sign a free agent here and at TE, while bringing along the rookies. This will be a chunk of change, and we can come back to it later.

    OL - Thuney and Karras are FAs. Resigning Thuney is going to cost at least $10M per year. Much of the hit could be pushed off until after Brady leaves, however. Let's say 4 years at $40M with $10M as bonus and $5M in initial salary. Karras should be modest money $2M per year. That's a $9.5M hit, leaving them with $28M. I'd draft an OL here, and assuming Andrews comes back, they have a serviceable and deeper OL than they had this year.

    DL - Shelton, Calhoun, and Butler are all FA. Butler needs to be signed and Shelton needs to be signed or replaced. That's probably $4-5M between them. Let's call it $5M, so they can add a another fatty at a vet minimum. We're at $23M. They'll draft someone here.

    LB - With me sending HT packing and Roberts, Collins and Van Noy as FA, this position is suddenly the weakest of all, and they are going to need three players to complement Bentley. (Bite me; this is hard.) Van Noy is in his final payday and will want >$6M per year for several years. I don't know if this is doable. I like his productivity and work ethic, but he's slow now and won't get faster on the other side of 30. Regardless, this position is going to need two (re-)signings and an early draft pick to shore-up. Let's assume that BB resigns Van Noy and Roberts at $8M combined for 2020 and drafts a speedy LB. Now, we're down to $15M and still don't have a shiny new WR or TE.

    Secondary - Not a weakness, even with the loss of DMac, but maybe a place that money can be saved. Let's move on from the injured Chung and JMac to gain $6M, and give JoeJuan and Obi a chance to play SS. That's a bit thin, but now there is $21M to sign a couple of vet receivers and make the rest of the team work. (Or $15M to get them through the roster building process that runs through the first few weeks of the season with $6M left as play and patch money. A bit tight, but not out of the realm of the feasible.)

    RBs are in good shape. ST could use a player or two with Slater and Ebner to sign, but that's all doable. My plan has holes, and the D won't be as good, but it's not as if the team can't compete like this. Expecting Stidham to be the answer is still wishful thinking at this point (at least from the information that we have outside the team).

    Thoughts? There's obviously the option of extending HT, JMac, Chung, or Harmon to push costs to future years and keep them around. Harmon is a keeper, given his youth, and an extension might save a few bucks against the cap. I wouldn't be surprised if HT ended-up with an extension either. He could be* the best LB we've seen in this run, and his strength is his strength, so he could keep on for a few years if he can stay healthy. I think Chung could be ready to hang it up. He's the Gronk of the defense and has taken an unreasonable beating for years. That's a lot of talent to replace, but not unreasonable for the FA era. The only player that we can't replace is Brady, so I think he's here for another year or two.
     
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    Last edited: Jan 5, 2020
  9. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Pro Bowl Player

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    50m in cap room for 2020 right? Then draft some cheap rookies. Henry would be the only big free agent acquisition, similar to when bb paid big cash for Gilmore. It will be worth it.
     
  10. Boomer B

    Boomer B Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Titans have more cap room then we do. I doubt Henry leaves there.
     
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  11. Biffins

    Biffins In the Starting Line-Up

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    If he stays in NE.....
     
  12. rochrist

    rochrist Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract Weekly Picks Winner

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    That 50m assumes they don't resign any of the free agents.
     
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  13. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan TB12, BB = G.O.A.T.s PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Yeah the $50M will go quickly especially if Brady gets half of it. About $15M - $20M more can be cleared by cutting some who aren't big contributors.
     
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  14. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Yes, If Brady leaves, Stidham would have an inside track to a 2020 roster spot. And yes, the inside track for being our #2 QB.

    Belichick has shocked me before. However, I find it quite unlikely that the patriots go into 2020 without at least a Tannehill level veteran on the squad. IN that case, Stidham would be given a shot, but would be unlikely to be the #1 in 2020.

    Also, we are likely to draft an addition quarterback. Depending on lots of things, Stidham would find himself competing to even be active.

     
  15. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Sure, as long as you don't have to pay much for their replacements.

    As an aside, there weren't very many non-performers on defense. It will be very, very difficult to bring back anywhere near as strong a defense.

     
  16. Chevrolet

    Chevrolet On the Game Day Roster

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    Just to confirm, yes Stidham had better rookie preseason stats than JG....not sure what that means or if it has any relevance in predicting outcomes. They faced different teams under different circumstances, I think preseason stats can tell you if a QB absolutely sucks, but in terms of comparing stats from different preseasons, I think they are meaningless.

    JG is now arguably one of the top 5 or 6 QB's in the NFL. If Stidham even approaches 2/3rds of JG's abilities and success that will be a win.

    Jimmy Garoppolo, 2014
    46-for-79 (58.2%)
    618 yards, 7.8 Y/A
    5 TDs, 1 INT
    3 sacks
    4 rushes for 8 yards

    Jarrett Stidham, 2018
    61-for-90 (67.8%)
    731 yards, 8.1 Y/A
    4 TDs, 1 INT
    102.6 rating
    9 sacks
    17 rushes for 88 yards
     
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  17. rochrist

    rochrist Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract Weekly Picks Winner

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    Obviously it doesn't mean anything in and of itself. It's just a piece of evidence. And a reason why it's kind of silly to scoff at the notion that he could end up a successful NFL QB.
     
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  18. pencilneckgeek

    pencilneckgeek Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Definitely silly to scoff, but it's not inappropriate to be doubtful, given the number of good QBs there actually are in the league. There is no good reason to expect Stidham to be as good as the QBs on any of the playoff teams, although he could have a shot at being as good or better than Josh Allen by 2021. Given the importance of the QB position, it makes sense to give Brady a couple of years to finish-up his career here. Of course, if he insists on a 3-year deal, then they'll have to decide whether it's worth the risk of eating dead money in 2022, but I'd still be inclined to do that.
     
  19. NYCPATS4LIFE

    NYCPATS4LIFE In the Starting Line-Up

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    I thought they would have more cap space. Well assuming how much the cap will go up they could have around 45 to 46. Who’s taking up all the space? They have some key free agents yet only have little work to work with.
     
  20. NYCPATS4LIFE

    NYCPATS4LIFE In the Starting Line-Up

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    Someone has to explain to me how a team like the eagles who spend so much money on wideouts etc could have more cap space than the pats. It seems like the eagles area always making splash moves yet still have money around. They have horrible contracts like the alshon Jeffery contract or even desean jackson.
     

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