That's fair, but Sproles doesn't make much sense as a comparable. He had well under half as many touches as MJD did last season, and I don't think anyone's talking about cutting MJD's workload in half. A better comp, IMO, might be Lesean McCoy. Over the past 2 seasons, he's had 285 and 321 touches (vs. 333 and 386 for MJD), and now word out of Philly all offseason has been that they're going to make sure to reduce his touches this season. Why's that? Because they just signed him to a 5 year, $45 million contract. The timing of that is no coincidence: they control him long-term at big money, and now they suddenly care about his ability to hold up until he's 29. It's the same with MJD: if the team held his rights for the next 5 years, that would dramatically shift their philosophy on how much to use him.
Same with Ray Rice. He's averaged 356 touches over the past three seasons, and two months ago he signed a five year, $40 million deal. Now that the Ravens actually have a vested interest in keeping him productive until he's 30, I'm willing to bet that his total touches will drop by at least 50, maybe more.
Basically, the worst-case scenario is Chris Johnson. In his first three seasons, he had 294, 408 (!!), and 356 touches. Like MJD, he wisely demanded his big contract, probably figuring that at that rate he'd be a diminished player before he ever hit free agency. Looks like he was right, because the Titans give Johnson his 4 year, $53 million extension, give him $30 million in guarantees, and in 2011 his total touches even 'dropped' to 319. Judging by his career-worst performance, though, it's fair to wonder if it may already be too late. Same with Adrian Peterson -- the Vikings didn't worry about sustainability of his production until they had him under long-term control, and by then they'd already overused him.
I expect that front offices will learn from the Johnson and AP, and the players themselves will too by demanding their big money even earlier. MJD is a bit different, since technically he's seeing his 'big' money now, and that makes me less sympathetic to his case than to someone like Johnson's. I still get where he's coming from, though, because workhorse RBs might be the only subset of players in the league whose shelf life is so short that, even if they consistently perform as All Pros on their rookie or second contract, the nature of the role will likely wear them down before they can get to free agency and have their compensation adjusted to reflect this level of performance. As a result, they almost have to play hardball if they want to be paid fairly for their production.
If I was an NFL running back, got drafted by the Rams in the second round, and got 700 touches over my first two seasons with Pro Bowl production (since Jeff Fisher is notorious for burning out his running backs), I wouldn't wait to the end of my rookie contract. I'd absolutely hold out, on the grounds that every 300+ touch season was dramatically reducing my future earning potential.[ Young stud WRs can wait it out, because barring major injury they have a 10 year window of upper-tier production to make their money. Workhorse running backs don't have that luxury. I understand why you and some others disagree with that philosophy, but IMO all bets are off when the team starts using you in a way that conclusively shows that they're willing to sacrifice your longevity for their own benefit.
