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I don’t think you can have NLTBE incentives tied in to his ability to stay clean, although there could be incentives tied into being on the active roster which may serve the same purpose. I don’t think they’d necessarily be NLTBE though. We’d have to ask someone with more knowledge like @Miguel or @ctpatsfan77. They’ll be able to answer.I don’t agree that a long term deal is out of the question. They could use the RFA tender as a baseline and offer him a good long term deal that’s cap friendly, loaded with incentives, and terminable for cause with no dead money if he falls off the wagon. It would be good business to lock him up now at a good price if the downside protection is solid. His market value will only go up from here, as long as he stays clean. If the contract is structured so the team doesn’t take any hit if he doesn’t stay clean there’s no reason not to do it.
Semi-facetious question: would an incentive clause requiring him to stay clean be “not likely to be earned”?
In terms of signing him to a long term deal at this point in time vs. using the RFA for around 4–4.5m, you’re going to have to offer guaranteed money no matter what, or Gordon simply isn’t interested. Whether they can include various clauses requiring him to void that money on an acceptable level that would satisfy both parties is anyone’s guess. Personally, I just don’t think that we’ve seen enough both on or off the field that would make Belichick throw out a bigger deal, and I’m not sure why Gordon wouldn’t just wait until next year with the chance at a bigger payday, but that’s just my personal opinion.