Pro Bowl Player
Brady said about Mahomes before the SB, "the moment is never too big for him." Even though they got destroyed I still believe that's true which puts him on the path to being in top tier. Andy Reid being compared to Bill is the bigger joke. They could have run the ball on Tampa all day long but once again Andy had Mike Martz disease. The moment is often too big for Andy. Is he great at schemes? Yes. Is he good at execution in the big moments? NO. The title last year was more about Mahomes going off than anything Andy did.
If Mahomes can stay healthy, and that's not a small if, I think he'll still pass Manning on the all time list. He's a better big game player already compared to Rodgers, Brees and really Peyton as well. Peyton's two titles the defense carried him. I'd also put him above Rapestburger who was awful in one SB and ok in two more. He's also come up small in the rest of the playoffs often enough.
At this point it's more probable people are right that Mahomes is the next Wilson than it is he catches Brady. And I think it's probably weighted 90-10. Hill and Kelce aren't going to be at this level for much longer. The Chiefs have cap issues which will hinder their getting OL depth. Pretty much like the Rams they better win it all in the next two years.
Only thing I take issue with is your assessment of Manning. Peyton was so much like Mahomes when he was younger as he tried to hit a home run all the time. He also choked a lot. Then he started watching Brady. And he became so much better. Pairing him with Welker made Manning a carbon copy of Brady, and Manning became a huge big game player. Capable of coming back on teams and elevating the team. I had a ton more respect for Peyton later in his career than I did earlier. He learned lessons that Andrew Luck never did.