Looking at the 2016-2018 Drafted QBs After Three Seasons

[Ian]

Just did a post on this but after doing some research, finding a QB is definitely an inexact science.

Since most quarterbacks typically take a couple (or more) seasons to potentially develop into something special, I took some time to look at quarterbacks over the course of three drafts from 2016 thru 2018 and the results when it comes to the number of guys who really turn into something shows that finding someone "special" is tough.

Going back over a three-year span from 2016-2018, those drafts produced one real true superstar, a handful of solid starters, a couple of good players and a few guys who filled in for injured players but don't appear to be starters.

Here's a quick look back beginning at 2018 and going back to 2016. Again, since it usually takes a few seasons, it's safe to say that here in 2021, we know about all we need to know about all of these players at this point.

If you look at the list below, here's how they've been color-coded:

Purple - Proven Elite Difference-Maker Players
Red - Excellent, playoff-caliber QBs
Blue - Decent, Competitive Starters (When Healthy)
Green - Decent Back-up

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QUARTERBACKS TAKEN FROM 2016-2018

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2018 NFL Draft
Baker Mayfield - 1 | #1 Overall - Browns
Sam Darnold - 1 | #3 Overall - Jets
Josh Allen - 1 | #7 Overall - Bills
Josh Rosen - 1 | #10 Overall - Cardinals
Lamar Jackson - 1 | #32 Overall - Ravens
Mason Rudolph - 3 | #76 Overall - Steelers
Kyle Lauletta - 4 | #108 Overall - Giants
Mike White - 5 | #171 Overall - Cowboys
Luke Falk - 6 | 199 Overall - Titans
Tanner Lee 6 | 203 Overall - Jaguars
Danny Etling 7 | #219 Overall - PATRIOTS
Alex McGough 7 | #220 Overall - Seahawks
Logan Woodside 7 | #249 Overall - Bengals

2018 Notable Undrafted
Kyle Allen - Panthers
John Wolford - Jets

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2017 NFL Draft
Mitchell Trubisky - 1 | #2 Overall - Bears
Patrick Mahomes - 1 | #10 Overall - Chiefs
Deshaun Watson - 1 | #12 Overall - Texans
DeShone Kizer- 2 | #52 Overall - Browns
Davis Webb - 3 | #87 Overall - Giants
C.J. Beathard - 3 | #104 Overall - 49ers
Joshua Dobbs - 4 | #135 Overall - Steelers
Nathan Peterman - 5 | #171 Overall - Bills
Brad Kaaya - 6 | #215 Overall - Lions
Chad Kelly - 7 | #253 Overall - Broncos

2017 Notable Undrafted
Taysom Hill - Packers
P.J. Walker - Indianapolis
Nick Mullens - 49ers

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2016 NFL Draft
Jared Goff - 1 | #1 Overall - Rams
Carson Wentz - 1 | #2 Overall - Eagles
Christian Hackenberg - 2 | #51 Overall - Jets
Jacoby Brissett - 3 | #91 Overall - PATRIOTS
Cody Kessler - 3 | #93 Overall - Browns
Connor Cook - 4 | #100 Overall - Raiders
Dak Prescott - 4 | #135 Overall - Cowboys
Cardale Jones - 4 | #139 Overall - Bills
Kevin Hogan - 5 | #162 Overall - Chiefs
Nate Sudfeld - 6 | #187 Overall - Washington
Jake Rudock - 6 | #191 Overall - Michigan
Brandon Allen - 6 | #201 Overall - Jaguars
Jeff Driskel - 6 | #207 Overall - 49ers
Brandon Doughty - 7 | #223 Overall - Dolphins

2016 Notable Undrafted
Joe Callahan - Packers

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Man...I don't want to be a Bears fan. Looking at that 2017 draft has got to be absolutely killing them.

And yes, I've got Deshaun Watson listed in the same category as some that aren't at his level. He's a really terrific player, but I don't feel like he's quite at the level of Mahomes, who we all know is going to be great and will win a lot in this league for as long as he can stay healthy.

As for Watson, he's obviously terrific and is just above his peers but not enough to create another category - at least not for the sake of this exercise.

The point is there are still very few exceptional QBs out of three years worth of drafts and the talent pool then drops off considerably. The rest are really just average and some are simply back-ups.

Mahomes is the one notable name, while the rest in red are competitive enough to get you to the postseason but from there, it's tough to guess how it will go. That's six in three years, and the jury is still out on potentially even half of those (Prescott, Goff, Jackson).

Needless to say, it's going to be interesting to see how lucky the Patriots can get because even in three drafts, there's some decent, a couple of really good, but truly elite only really came along once or twice.

 

[Username]

I'd argue that Josh Rosen, bad as he is, is probably still better than Mason Rudolph.

 

[Ian]

I'd argue that Josh Rosen, bad as he is, is probably still better than Mason Rudolph.

I forgot to mark him in green, appreciate you pointing that out.

 

[ToonPatriot]

It's definitely an inexact science, but no matter what way people skew the data (not saying you were), it still helps to draft in the first round.

Do I see Bill drafting a QB in round 1 of this upcoming draft? Not a chance lol

 

[yukon cornelius]

goff and prescott are probably halfway between blue & red......i'd put allen in that mix, too.......

 

[Ian]

It's definitely an inexact science, but no matter what way people skew the data (not saying you were), it still helps to draft in the first round.

Do I see Bill drafting a QB in round 1 of this upcoming draft? Not a chance lol

Definitely not a lot of luck in the later rounds, with Prescott being the potential exception. I was surprised to see in three drafts that there wasn't much success there. So like you said, it's been mostly first-round or nothing.

 

[yukon cornelius]

Definitely not a lot of luck in the later rounds, with Prescott being the potential exception. I was surprised to see in three drafts that there wasn't much success there. So like you said, it's been mostly first-round or nothing.

most years it tends to be top 12

this year after top couple, MAYBE top 4, it seems to be you're hoping someone develops into a mariota/trubisky/wentz/goff type of guy......

 

[captain stone]

LOL JEST for taking Hackingberg.

 

[mike_usagisan]

It’s weird because a year ago, I’d put Wentz up there in the red and then this year happened. I feel like he’s a reclamation project that has a high ceiling and a really low floor.

 

[Triumph]

A 1st round pick will fetch you a good QB.

IIRC, Minschew was a 5th and Wilson was a 3rd.

 

[203Pat]

Of the 7 AFC playoff teams this year every single one of them had a first round QB. The NFC was 3 out of 7 with Brees basically a first rounder at pick 32 (in the second round). That’s 11 of the 14 playoff teams that took a QB in the first 32 picks. Thinking you’re going to luck into a mid to late round gem who leads you to the playoffs consistently is a long shot.

 

[farn]

Lack of Purple is the true telling point... people obsessing over QBs each draft don't often follow up to see that they (usually) disappoint...

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

How does the guy who picked Trubisky over both Mahomes and Watson still have his job?

I always kill BB for drafting Cunningham instead of his Florida teammate Carlos Dunlap (who went the next pick after Cunningham), back in 2010, if he did, and a certain draft pick didn't go on a killing spree, that draft would have gone down as one of the best in history with McCourty, Gronk, Dunlap, Spikes, Hernandez, Deadrick, Larsen, and the immortal Zoltan Mesko!

But at least he didn't trade two 3rd round picks and a 4th to move up from 3 to 2 and draft Trubisky before Mahomes and Watson! Again, I ask how does this man still have his job??

 

[Triumph]

Lack of Purple is the true telling point... people obsessing over QBs each draft don't often follow up to see that they (usually) disappoint...

Yes, there are only a few great QBs, but you have no chance unless you have a really good QB. The most important position on the football team.

Elway failed in 3 Super Bowls, Jim Kelly lost 4 Super Bowls, but I would tale both tomorrow.

 

[yukon cornelius]

there's no one who is a "guaranteed" starter this year after QB2......and after QB4 in this draft, it's a real crapshoot.......this draft has a slew of QBs GMs will HOPE grow into jared goff.......who I would not categorize as red, he's a blue +

 

[farn]

Yes, there are only a few great QBs, but you have no chance unless you have a really good QB. The most important position on the football team.

Elway failed in 3 Super Bowls, Jim Kelly lost 4 Super Bowls, but I would tale both tomorrow.

How many draft picks would you give up for Trubisky ? Or Wentz ? (Or Kizer ? heehee)

 

[203Pat]

Lack of Purple is the true telling point... people obsessing over QBs each draft don't often follow up to see that they (usually) disappoint...

So then what is your suggestion? Sign the Cam Newton's of the world?

 

[farn]

So then what is your suggestion? Sign the Cam Newton's of the world?

Keep trying to find a QB by many means... not just depending on first rounders. Don't be desperate and keep missing on a position, like Detroit did with WRs a while back... get free agents, try to trade for QBs that you think might work out. Keep drafting QBs in rounds 2-3-4-5 year after year.

It's not sexy, but it's my suggestion. There is very little evidence to suggest a top 5 QB will outperform a 3rd rounder (Trubisky vs WIlson). In the meantime, build on positions that "hit" more often : OL, DL... gather talent.

 

[203Pat]

Keep trying to find a QB by many means... not just depending on first rounders. Don't be desperate and keep missing on a position, like Detroit did with WRs a while back... get free agents, try to trade for QBs that you think might work out. Keep drafting QBs in rounds 2-3-4-5 year after year.

It's not sexy, but it's my suggestion. There is very little evidence to suggest a top 5 QB will outperform a 3rd rounder (Trubisky vs WIlson). In the meantime, build on positions that "hit" more often : OL, DL... gather talent.

I am all for finding a QB by any means necessary but when 11 of the 14 teams in the playoffs this year have a QB picked in the top 32 it shows how hard it is to win without a first round QB. I am not saying take one for the sake of taking one but if there is a guy that they really like who is there at 15 then get him. Hell if there is a guy they really like at 8 or 9 do whatever it takes to move up. Do whatever it takes to get Deshaun Watson.

There is plenty of evidence that a QB taken in the top 5 will outperform a QB taken in the third round. Will Grier, Mason Rudolph, Davis Webb, CJ Beathard, Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler, Garrett Grayson, Sean Mannion, Mike Glennon. Are any of those guys looking like potential franchise QBs to build around? Baker Mayfield has taken the perennial loser Browns to the playoffs, Kyler Murray looks like a solid player, Joe Burrow looked good before his knee blew up. Hell Jared Goff and Carson Wentz quarterbacked super bowl teams. Even the busts like Winston, Darnold, Mariota, and Trubisky I would take over any single one of the lot of third rounders above.

 

[farn]

I am all for finding a QB by any means necessary but when 11 of the 14 teams in the playoffs this year have a QB picked in the top 32 it shows how hard it is to win without a first round QB. I am not saying take one for the sake of taking one but if there is a guy that they really like who is there at 15 then get him. Hell if there is a guy they really like at 8 or 9 do whatever it takes to move up. Do whatever it takes to get Deshaun Watson.

There is plenty of evidence that a QB taken in the top 5 will outperform a QB taken in the third round. Will Grier, Mason Rudolph, Davis Webb, CJ Beathard, Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler, Garrett Grayson, Sean Mannion, Mike Glennon. Are any of those guys looking like potential franchise QBs to build around? Baker Mayfield has taken the perennial loser Browns to the playoffs, Kyler Murray looks like a solid player, Joe Burrow looked good before his knee blew up. Hell Jared Goff and Carson Wentz quarterbacked super bowl teams. Even the busts like Winston, Darnold, Mariota, and Trubisky I would take over any single one of the lot of third rounders above.

I see it differently, at this point in the franchise's arc : I don't care about the playoffs... I want the team to be champ or work towards being champs. There are plenty of those 14 teams that, while in the playoffs, aren't that close. I "get it" : give yourself a chance etc... but there are some of those "top 32 QBs" that are glorified placeholders/make-the-playoff-but-nothing-else types. No thanks.

If NE is shut out of the playoffs until 2026 - then I might reassess what I'm looking for in a QB. For today, "making the playoffs" isn't nearly enough.

(EDIT : Wentz doesn't get PHI to the 2017 season SB even if healthy, imo...)