Let's talk about current depth

[DaBruinz]

But it's simply not obvious that the Pats have "serious questions" at running back. They don't have proven NFL players but they do have players who are LIKELY to be reasonably good based on their college production.

Shelter - You seem to have missed the line that Deus put up where he said

There's so much in question here that I don't think the position can even be fairly evaluated right now.

And, I hate to break it to you, but, just because Vereen and Ridley had good college production, that doesn't mean they will be good NFLers. And, yes, I like both of them. But the reality is that they are still question marks. And it's also why Deus said that they can't be fairly evaluated right now.

 

[DaBruinz]

Hey if you think projecting depth but ignoring unproven players is a good way to spend your time, bully for you. Every single NFL team relies on lots of unproven players and every NFL coach and gm builds a team based on projections but whatever.

*can't believe he's doing this*
Deus isn't IGNORING anything when it comes to Vereen and Ridley. What part of "you can't fairly judge the position" didn't you understand?

I'm sorry but there is a huge list of 1st round draft busts at RB that we could pull out that blows up the idea that Vereen and Ridley should be cast in a good light.

Projections are guesses. Some work out. Others don't. You can't be certain either way.. Deus' stance is that it's much fairer to Vereen and Ridley to not put any expectations (one way or the other) on them than to put unreasonable expectations on them and have them fail.

 

[patfanken]

1a) weak: RG, C, OT Empty positions: LT, RDE
1b) LT : With a right-handed QB, the LT position is key. If Light isn't re-signed, then Solder will be learning under fire. This may result in the Pats using a lot of 2 TE sets and lining Crumpler up next to him. If Solder can't handle it, then it would definitely keep the Pats from the SB.

Regardless of who is playing LT we are going to see a lot more 2 TE sets this season simply because BB always plays to the strength of his roster. Since TE is clearly a strength it would be counter productive NOT to put your best players on the field as often as you can.
Couple that with the infusion of RB talent and one can only assume that we will be seeing a lot of 2 TE sets this coming season,

Also I become LESS worried about the LT position with every passing day simply because I choose to believe that rather than considering it an empty position, I think we upgraded the talent level at the position. Does anyone really contend that Solder isn't bigger, more athletic, and eventually stronger than Matt Light. I also think that history has given us too many examples of quality rookie LTs coming into the league and being successful to think that it is far fetched to think Solder can't do the same.

This isn't to say that it still isn't a question mark or a concern. However it shouldn't be a panic point either. Remember Solder isn't only a talented player, he will be coming into an offense that will help him overcome a lot of the bumps in the road he will face as a rookie starter. He will often have a TE to his outside. He will have a strong running game. He has a vet QB who has a great pocket presence and an offense that gets rid of the ball quickly.

2a) CB, ILB, TE, WR
2b) I don't see any position that I'd consider it even or an upgrade with the guy coming off the bench unless you are talking about comparing different situations. Guyton is an upgrade over Spikes in passing situations. Hernandez is an upgrade over Crumpler in the passing game, but a downgrade in the blocking game.

Well said.

 

[DaBruinz]

I feel center needs UPGRADING in the near future...Koppen has a lot of miles on him and has taken a pounding the last few seasons.

I have to disagree. I don't think that Koppen has many miles left on him at all. The few seasons, he's made some huge errors at critical times. The play-off game against Baltimore he missed the delayed blitz by Lewis that nearly got Brady killed. Koppen has had more than his fair share of issues against opposing DTs and not just NTs..

 

[patfanken]

*can't believe he's doing this*
Deus isn't IGNORING anything when it comes to Vereen and Ridley. What part of "you can't fairly judge the position" didn't you understand?

I'm sorry but there is a huge list of 1st round draft busts at RB that we could pull out that blows up the idea that Vereen and Ridley should be cast in a good light.

Projections are guesses. Some work out. Others don't. You can't be certain either way.. Deus' stance is that it's much fairer to Vereen and Ridley to not put any expectations (one way or the other) on them than to put unreasonable expectations on them and have them fail.

On the other hand there is a equally compelling list of RBs (regardless of where they were drafted...or not) who have come into the league and contributed right away. No one is saying DI doesn't have a strong case in his opinion, its just that there is another, equally defensible position. Neither side here is ;wrong".

 

[DaBruinz]

We're in agreement. Are there any notable centers coming out of the draft or as available free agents in 2012?

There are several centers coming out next year who would fit on the Pats:

Mike Brewster - Ohio State (it will be interesting to see if Vrabel gets a call from Belichick on this one)

Ben Jones - Georgia, David Molk - Michigan,

Peter Konz - Wisconson (rJr)

Konz is the big question mark. If he comes out, there is a chance he could go at the end of the 1st round.

 

[Shelterdog]

Shelter - You seem to have missed the line that Deus put up where he said



And, I hate to break it to you, but, just because Vereen and Ridley had good college production, that doesn't mean they will be good NFLers. And, yes, I like both of them. But the reality is that they are still question marks. And it's also why Deus said that they can't be fairly evaluated right now.

I didn't miss his statement at all; I just fundamentally disagree with it. If you're going to evaluate ANY NFL team's depth at virtually any position you have to evaluate rookies. It's harder to evaluate rookies, without a doubt, but doing a depth analysis where you don't event try to project what rookies are going to do is an artificial and inane exercise.

 

[DaBruinz]

right.......you can't count on rookie RB's.....gotcha


now run along

There is a difference between saying "You can't count on rookie running backs" and saying "It's unfair to put expectations on them at this point".

 

[DaBruinz]

Make no mistake about it...until this fat slob bigmouth is DESTROYED by the Patriots and sent back to the green slime pits they oozed out of, this will NEVER be settled.This fat jerk will keep running his mouth and picking up our castoffs and have his assistants make all kinds of disgusting, lying blabberisms in the press (Westhoff) about why the Patriots are evil and the lily white ,pristine and pure Jets are sure Super Bowl winners, guaranteed.He needs to be revealed like he was against that banged up Pittsburgh squad in the AFC championship...standing there like Gigot (the Jackie Gleason deaf mute movie) while that little glory hounding statutory rapist is running to the sideline begging ANYONE to tell him what to do on 4th and goal from the 1.

The Pats did destroy him.. And he continued to run his mouth. The Pats are going to have to destroy them TWICE AND win the SB before he'll shut his mouth..

 

[DaBruinz]

I didn't miss his statement at all; I just fundamentally disagree with it. If you're going to evaluate ANY NFL team's depth at virtually any position you have to evaluate rookies. It's harder to evaluate rookies, without a doubt, but doing a depth analysis where you don't event try to project what rookies are going to do is an artificial and inane exercise.

So you disagree with the idea that putting expectations on the 3rd and 4th RB when they haven't shown anything is UNFAIR??

As for your opinion, you are certainly entitled to it. But that should also mean we won't see you posting any more replies..

 

[BlueThunder]

I have to disagree. I don't think that Koppen has many miles left on him at all. The few seasons, he's made some huge errors at critical times. The play-off game against Baltimore he missed the delayed blitz by Lewis that nearly got Brady killed. Koppen has had more than his fair share of issues against opposing DTs and not just NTs..

Ummm...Reading JO's post, I think you are both agreeing that Koppen needs replacing soon

 

[Shelterdog]

So you disagree with the idea that putting expectations on the 3rd and 4th RB when they haven't shown anything is UNFAIR??

As for your opinion, you are certainly entitled to it. But that should also mean we won't see you posting any more replies..

I'm pretty sure you're the first guy to talk about this idea that putting expectations on the 3rd and 4th running back is unfair-I don't think that was DI's point but perhaps I missed it. But I disagree with that as well: if you get drafted and get a million dollar contract, then it's absolutely fair to put expectations on the guy.

I'm totally confused as to what you're saying in your second sentence. Since I think you should try your best to evaluate rookies I'm not allowed to post in a thread about the Pats' depth?

 

[DaBruinz]

I'm totally confused as to what you're saying in your second sentence. Since I think you should try your best to evaluate rookies I'm not allowed to post in a thread about the Pats' depth?

Why are you confused? If you think that looking at the RB depth situation from Deus point of view is "an artificial and inane exercise" then why participate in it? Hence my saying that we shouldn't expect any more comments from you.

1+1=2 in my world, is it different in yours?

 

[Shelterdog]

Why are you confused? If you think that looking at the RB depth situation from Deus point of view is "an artificial and inane exercise" then why participate in it?

I'm confused because you didn't express your thought fully. Now you have.

I'm participating because I think the discussion of depth is interesting, and I'm just going to reject DI's moronic fiat to exclude rookies from the conversation.

 

[Off The Grid]

I feel center needs UPGRADING in the near future...

Koppen has a lot of miles on him and has taken a pounding the last few seasons.

I have to disagree.

I don't think that Koppen has many miles left on him at all.

Step AWAY from the Crack Pipe, Brother Bruinz.

You just said "I have to disagree." to Brother Joker.

...And then you proceeded to regurgitate his point.

 

[Off The Grid]

With Morris and Taylor likely gone, and with Faulk's status up in the air, I think it's safe to say that running back (both 'featured' and 3rd down) is an area with serious questions when it comes to depth.

The team currently has no proven players to back up either position (I'm keeping BJGE and Woodhead separate for the purpose of those roles). There's so much in question here that I don't think the position can even be fairly evaluated right now.


Anyone have any major disagreement with this take?

Deuce Awry says "it's safe to say that running back is an area with SERIOUS questions when it comes to depth."

That's pretty goofy.

Solid + Healthy + Young:


1 ~ BenJarvus Green
2 ~ Danny WoodHead

Healthy + Young + Talented:

3 ~ Shane Vereen
4 ~ Stevan Ridley

Two 3rd Rounders. Is ANYONE stupid enough to suggest they don't make the team??

That's FOUR.

LOCKED...and LOADED.

So much for "SERIOUS questions when it comes to depth."

JAG Who Can Fill In + Already Knows The System

5 ~ Tom Clayton

Talented Vets Who Know Our System Intimately + We Can Probably Scoop Up ANYTIME: Potential "Shadow Roster" Cats

6 ~ Kevin Faulk
7 ~ Fred Taylor
8 ~ Sam Morris

YEAH...

"SERIOUS questions when it comes to depth."

***

Do we have experience issues at Running Back??

YES.

But to suggest that we have depth issues is utterly INSANE.

We have the greatest Depth of Talent at Running Back that we've had in YEARS. :rocker:

 

[patchick]

There is a difference between saying "You can't count on rookie running backs" and saying "It's unfair to put expectations on them at this point".

I think everyone agrees with the basic ideas that an incoming rookie is a highly risky proposition, and that you can't simply project college production to the NFL. The disagreement in this thread, as I understood it, was whether to declare the rookies' value unknowable and not consider them in your depth analysis, or whether to try to evaluate them along with the rest of the roster, including the risk factor in the evaluation.

It's like an investment in a start-up without any revenue history. In a sense, the company's value is "unknowable." Yet investors routinely make educated guesses, discount for risk, and place valuations on the companies.

Looking at Shane Vereen, for instance, there are several factors that mitigate risk and make me comfortable in projecting some value for him as a Patriot. First is his durability in college. Then there's the many different roles he was asked to perform for his college team -- it's rare to find a college RB with such balanced experience as a runner, receiver and pass blocker. That should make his transition to the Patriots' offense easier. Then add in that he's reported to be a smart, high-character guy with a strong work ethic. So while I have no crystal ball, I think he's a good bet to be able to at least contribute as the 3rd guy on the depth chart as a rookie.

 

[Deus Irae]

I think everyone agrees with the basic ideas that an incoming rookie is a highly risky proposition, and that you can't simply project college production to the NFL. The disagreement in this thread, as I understood it, was whether to declare the rookies' value unknowable and not consider them in your depth analysis, or whether to try to evaluate them along with the rest of the roster, including the risk factor in the evaluation.

It's like an investment in a start-up without any revenue history. In a sense, the company's value is "unknowable." Yet investors routinely make educated guesses, discount for risk, and place valuations on the companies.

Looking at Shane Vereen, for instance, there are several factors that mitigate risk and make me comfortable in projecting some value for him as a Patriot. First is his durability in college. Then there's the many different roles he was asked to perform for his college team -- it's rare to find a college RB with such balanced experience as a runner, receiver and pass blocker. That should make his transition to the Patriots' offense easier. Then add in that he's reported to be a smart, high-character guy with a strong work ethic. So while I have no crystal ball, I think he's a good bet to be able to at least contribute as the 3rd guy on the depth chart as a rookie.

 

[patchick]

Since you didn't use any words, I'll go ahead and interpret this image to mean "A wise leader deep in thought." Gee, thanks!

Seriously, valuation of early-stage startups has been much on my mind in other contexts, and I think it's a relevant comparison. You have to look at factors like marketplace fit and timing, your faith in the principals' commitment, the robustness of the "technology," etc. etc. But you can't just declare the value unknowable, you have to come up with some working estimate.

 

[Shelterdog]

You keep expressing frustration because no one understands your genius ideas.

Maybe, just maybe, your ideas are not genius ideas and/or are not clearly expressed.