Keep expectations for Maye in 2025 realistic

[Hammer of Thor]

Bumping this thread.

Do you think the Patriots would draft a QB one or two if they were in that spot. Or, is Maye still the man for 2026?

He needs to read defenses better and limit the mistakes. Some of the close games need to be wins. A stat line of: 25 TD's, 3409 yards, 8 picks may be sufficient.

This is a huge year for Maye.

8 INTs may be sufficient? Only a half dozen or so QBs last year had fewer than 8; Patrick Mahomes had 11. I think your “sufficient” expectations are too high. He’s going to throw some picks; he’s learning a new offense in general, and he has a bit of a gunslinger in him. I just want to see him improve this year and I don’t care about it from the stats perspective, what I mean is — is he learning the offense, is he improving on his read choices, are his mechanics improving, is he remaining poised under pressure?

The only way the team looks to move on from Maye after this season is if he completely craters / looks awful and clueless out there every game without growing, or if he suffers a devastating injury, or develops a bad attitude.

He’ll get 2026 with the team absent that. And if he shows no growth this year or next, it means we’re near the top of the draft in 2027 which also looks like a potentially great QB draft class.

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

OK

IMO, there are two ways to greatly increase the likelihood of losing Maye for the season.

One is by having poor line play. Obviously, one poor play and Maye could be done.

The second is by Maye becoming more of a running QB than Josh, Murray and Hurts.

Josh has proven to be very durable, and he is most similar physique wise to Maye compared with the rest (add Daniels and Lamar in there too).
Maye's yards per was higher than all those guys, close to 2-3 yards higher per carry than some of those guys, so he doesn't need as many carries.
He needs to slide and get out of bounds, but I don't think 42 yds per game is unrealistic.
He averaged 7.8 yds/carry, and 4.5 carries/game last year (again, not including the Buffalo game).
So to get to 42 yards/game, 700 on the season, he only needs one more carry per game from last year.
Now maybe he won't as efficient, and hit the 7.8 yds/carry, but I'm just going on the limited statistical info we have, and presume McD won't be as scared to run him.

 

[mgteich]

8 INTs may be sufficient? Only a half dozen or so QBs last year had fewer than 8; Patrick Mahomes had 11. He’s going to throw some picks; he’s learning a new offense in general, and he has a bit of a gunslinger in him.

The only way the team looks to move on from Maye after this season is if he completely craters / looks awful and clueless out there every game without growing, or if he suffers a devastating injury, or develops a bad attitude.

He’ll get 2026 with the team absent that. And if he shows no growth this year or next, it means we’re near the top of the draft in 2027 which also looks like a potentially great QB draft class.

I strongly disagree.

I don't think that Maye showing no growth will make us near the top of the draft in 2027.
===========================

If you believe that, we might as well fire Vrabel since all that matters is QB play.

Vrabel is putting together a top 5 Defense.

Vrabel has greatly improved our WR and RB corps. Josh will develop an Offense than best uses the players that we and those that we will get in 2026.

Vrabel has greatly improved the OL corps by adding 4 starters and a swing OT; more to come in 2026.
============
There is exactly ZERO reason to believe that if Maye stays at the level as he was at the end of 2024, that we would then be near the top of the draft in 2027.

 

[InRodWeRust]

but what do I gain by having low expectations?
It’s much better to be hopeful than depressed.
The results aren’t going to be any different whether I expect a SB or 0-17 so why wouldn’t I enjoy the off season by being hopeful and optimistic?

I like this way of thinking. I predict every player on the roster will get eleventy billion yards and eleventy billion touchdowns and the Patriots will end up with a perfect record and win 27 Super Bowls this season.

 

[mgteich]

Agreed.
Much better QB, elite physical skills compared to below average in 2021.
Better WRs
Better RBs

I will go:
3995 passing yards
700 yds rushing
26 passing TDs
6 rushing TDs

I would note that the following did NOT reach 3998 in 2024. Maye would have been 7th in the entire NFL with 3998 yards.
Mahomes
Josh
Jaden
Herbert
Murray

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

I would note that the following did NOT reach 3998 in 2024. Maye would have been 7th in the entire NFL with 3998 yards.
Mahomes
Josh
Jaden
Herbert
Murray

just a projection my man.
It's 235 yards a game, I think he can get there.
The rushing stats I did my best to justify, I think they are reasonable.

 

[Ring 6]

I like this way of thinking. I predict every player on the roster will get eleventy billion yards and eleventy billion touchdowns and the Patriots will end up with a perfect record and win 27 Super Bowls this season.

Or you could just reasonably optimistic.
Expect that Maye will take advantage of his obvious talents under McDaniels and with better protection and weapons and believe he can be a top tier QB.
I’ve never understood why some fans just wallow in misery and predict gloom and doom. I’m not sure what is gained by that.

 

[Ring 6]

I would note that the following did NOT reach 3998 in 2024. Maye would have been 7th in the entire NFL with 3998 yards.
Mahomes
Josh
Jaden
Herbert
Murray

In most seasons that would be 10th or 11th.
I see no reason to think Maye can’t be one of the top 1/3 of QBs.

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

Or you could just reasonably optimistic.
Expect that Maye will take advantage of his obvious talents under McDaniels and with better protection and weapons and believe he can be a top tier QB.
I’ve never understood why some fans just wallow in misery and predict gloom and doom. I’m not sure what is gained by that.

It is perplexing.
Maybe setting the bar low so they won't be disappointed?
Who knows, but I always do my best to be optimistic, while still trying my best to be objective.
Certain posters are subjectively negative, I don't get it.

 

[jdlboot14]

I'm sure Maye will have his mistakes, and I could see him with a lot of INT's this year again - 15INT
But, with a full year, I think he could also surprise some people with 30TD + 3800yds
Along with ~500yds + 5TD on the ground.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm sure Maye will have his mistakes, and I could see him with a lot of INT's this year again - 15INT
But, with a full year, I think he could also surprise some people with 30TD + 3800yds
Along with ~500yds + 5TD on the ground.

I saw a highlight film of his throws from last year. This guy has ridiculous arm talent. Great arm strength and incredible deep accuracy.

Sky is the limit. I’m not sure why you would expect more ints with better coaching, blocking, weapons and a year of experience.

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

I saw a highlight film of his throws from last year. This guy has ridiculous arm talent. Great arm strength and incredible deep accuracy.

Sky is the limit. I’m not sure why you would expect more ints with better coaching, blocking, weapons and a year of experience.

And factor in the run game.
Our running game was horrific last year.
It will undoubtedly be better this year, that alone will make passing the ball easier/safer.
Add that to all those things you mentioned and I can't see Maye's ints numbers increasing significantly, if at all.

 

[Ring 6]

And factor in the run game.
Our running game was horrific last year.
It will undoubtedly be better this year, that alone will make passing the ball easier/safer.
Add that to all those things you mentioned and I can't see Maye's ints numbers increasing significantly, if at all.

We also allowed 30+ points in more than 4 of the 11 games he played most of of the games and 24+ in 8 of them so he wasn’t exactly playing from even very much.
He threw 53 passes all season while leading (53 tied and 232 while trailing)

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

We also allowed 30+ points in more than 4 of the 11 games he played most of of the games and 24+ in 8 of them so he wasn’t exactly playing from even very much.
He threw 53 passes all season while leading (53 tied and 232 while trailing)

Good point.
Lots of reasons to believe his TD/INT ratio will improve.
Only reason it would get worse is if he is taking unnecessary shots, or his accuracy ****s the bed, and I don't see either of those happening.

 

[InRodWeRust]

Or you could just reasonably optimistic.
Expect that Maye will take advantage of his obvious talents under McDaniels and with better protection and weapons and believe he can be a top tier QB.
I’ve never understood why some fans just wallow in misery and predict gloom and doom. I’m not sure what is gained by that.

I understand what you are saying. I was just exaggerating for the sake of humor. My intent with my comment was supposed to make people laugh.

 

[imahobgoblin]

I am looking for Drake to have a year similar to Josh Allen in year 2. 3000 YDS, 20 TD, 9 INT, RTG 85.3, QBR 49.4. I suspect he will have more pics than 9 and a lower RTG.

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

I am looking for Drake to have a year similar to Josh Allen in year 2. 3000 YDS, 20 TD, 9 INT, RTG 85.3, QBR 49.4. I suspect he will have more pics than 9 and a lower RTG.

Josh's weapons in 2019:

Devin Singletary
John Brown
Cole Beasly
Dawson Knox
Isiah McKenzie
Duke Williams

I think our skilled guys are much, much better than that group.

I expect much more from Maye in his second year.

 

[imahobgoblin]

Josh's weapons in 2019:

Devin Singletary
John Brown
Cole Beasly
Dawson Knox
Isiah McKenzie
Duke Williams

I think our skilled guys are much, much better than that group.

I expect much more from Maye in his second year.

I just disagree. I do not value our WR room as much as you do as of yet. I would love to be wrong. I am not convinced we have a 1000 yard receiver this year.

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

I just disagree. I do not value our WR room as much as you do as of yet. I would love to be wrong. I am not convinced we have a 1000 yard receiver this year.

We can't always agree.

But....Henderson, Dre and Gibson vs Singletary, Gore and TJ Yeldon. Zero explosiveness in the RB room for Buffalo, and plenty in ours with Henderson. A running game can help out a young QB immensely, and hard to argue Josh had much help out of that group is 2019.

Let's hope I'm right and you're wrong for the team's sake.

 

[JoeSixPat]

4000 yards is a pipe dream.
It's only his second year. His receiving group and OL are still easily bottom third of the league.
He has potential but has not consistently proven anything yet.
RB's and TE's are OK but not great.
First year in McDaniel's system
It is not a certainty that he will excel
Expect TD's = Interceptions


He and the team are most likely at least year away from showing real growth and ability to put points on the board consistently.
Hoping that not too much is expected of him this year. Josh Allen did not start to shine until year 3.

Yup - and September might as well be the pre-season

OL and LT concern me - but even there, how they are playing in September is less important than how they look in December and January

Campbell will have a learning curve and while he could be the long term LT, if he's mediocre, as many rookies can initially be, they can look to upgrade at LT next offseason and kick him inside